Another draft has come and gone, and Georgia continued to keep its strong NFL pipeline open. The Dawgs ranked #13 in draft player quality, a pretty solid ranking considering its one elite prospect has a torn ACL. The full list is here, and you’ll get a laugh at Florida ranking #4 due to the strength of its….offense…?…having six players drafted. WHO SAID WILL MUSCHAMP CAN’T COACH?!?
Todd Gurley, Rams (1st round, 10th overall): Obviously, most of the strength of this Georgia class lies in the monster RB Todd Gurley. The first first-round running back selected since 2012, Gurley’s landing spot is less than ideal. The Rams are weak on the offensive line (though strong behind Greg Robinson and Roger Saffold on the left side), and have a complete dearth of playmakers on the outside as long as Tavon Austin demonstrates a lack of receiving skills. To add insult to injury (no pun intended), the Rams play in the NFC West with strong defenses in Seattle and Arizona. Perhaps he can eat in two games against a depleted 49ers team, but who knows?
Former Auburn back Tre Mason had a pretty nice second half to his rookie season last year, but Gurley should have no problem supplanting him as the featured back. Fantasy ripoff Zac Stacy, though?
2 days after his angry tweet about the Rams drafting Todd Gurley, Zac Stacy was traded to the Jets for a bag of balls. 973 yds, 7 TD as rook
— Jason McIntyre (@jasonrmcintyre) May 2, 2015
In case you missed it, Stacy’s response to the Gurley pick was swift, as he tweeted (and deleted) “YIKES”, followed by a trade request, which the Rams granted for a 7th-round pick.
FIT: D+. Gurley is going to be asked to be the workhorse here, and his career will likely be shortened by Jeff Fisher giving him the Eddie George treatment.
Chris Conley, Chiefs (3rd round, 76th overall): From a pure opportunity standpoint, Conley couldn’t have landed in a better situation. The Chiefs let Dwayne Bowe walk this offseason, and their receivers accounted for ZERO touchdowns last year. With their signing of deep threat Jeremy Maclin, there should be ample space to operate underneath for the combine wonder.
Additionally, Conley immediately becomes KC’s tallest receiver, as 6’3 journeyman Armon Binns and his 27 career catches are likely not to stick on the roster.
FIT: A-. WR was likely KC’s biggest need going into the draft, and Conley joins a 7th-rounder from Northern Illinois as new targets for Alex Smith. Only Smith’s inability to get the ball downfield keeps this from being a home run for Conley.
Ramik Wilson, Chiefs (4th round, 118th overall): The first three Georgia draftees will play their football in Missouri, which is just…odd. SEC country indeed, I suppose.
Ramik has a good chance to stick as a 3-4 inside ‘backer (where he played for his most productive Georgia year), as the Chiefs are a little light there. Derrick Johnson is a stud, and Josh Mauga had 103 tackles in his first year with the team. Depth is a major concern here, and the team’s run defense was not-so-good last year. Wilson should get a shot to move right into a reserve role and join the starting 11 if Johnson’s injury issues persist.
The fear here is that some are listing him as an outside linebacker, where he would be well behind former Dawg (and 2014 sack leader) Justin Houston, as well as aging edge rusher Tamba Hali and last year’s second-round pick, Dee Ford.
FIT: A if he stays inside, F if they see him as an edge guy. We grew to know and love Wilson as an inside ‘backer.
If he can protect the middle of the field like the following GIF (B.S. penalties aside), Wilson will be just fine.
Damian Swann, Saints (5th round, 167th overall): Again, depends on where the team sees him playing. With Keenan Lewis and former Patriot Brandon Browner entrenched as the starting corners, the versatility Swann demonstrated in one year under Jeremy Pruitt is essential to his staying power.
If he is indeed a corner in the Saints’ D, Swann will also be competing with former Florida State corner P.J. Williams, a third-round pick who many mocks saw as a late first-rounder.
Rotoworld lists Swann as a free safety, where he’s clearly behind Jarius Byrd. Career starter Kenny Phillips was signed this offseason for depth as well, but he’s been completely unable to stay healthy.
FIT: C-. Swann’s best hope for a roster spot here is as a special teamer and sub package corner. While that’s all you can really expect as a fifth rounder, the Saints have invested heavily in their secondary over the past two years. On the other hand, 81.3% of 5th rounders at least play their rookie years with the team who drafts them, so he should be in NOLA for special teams and depth in year one.
Amarlo Herrera, Colts (6th round, 207th overall): ‘Marlo is a prototypical run stuffing, old school middle linebacker who may have missed his NFL calling by 10-15 years, but he has a good chance to stick for his first few years. The Colts have been awful against the run in recent years, and a division with Houston, Jacksonville, and Tennessee means that he’s playing almost half of his schedule against teams that aren’t exactly capable of chucking all over the field and exploiting his weakness as a pass defender.
D’Quell Jackson (140 tackles) and Jerrell Freeman (93) are Indy’s inside incumbents (alliteration!). Freeman is on a 1-year RFA deal, and Jackson is entering his 9th year in the league. From a depth perspective, Herrera should be able to find some time on the field.
FIT: A-. There aren’t many better fits for one of my all-time favorites.
Among the undrafted Dawgs, C David “Boss” Andrews to New England is good, because (spoiler alert) Bill Belichick tends to get the most out of all of his players, one way or another. Ray Drew is a Dolphin, Toby Johnson a Titan, and Corey Moore a Texan.
On balance, one feels for Gurley. The rest of the Dawgs’ draftees ended up in very good situations to display their talents.
Want to show some love to your favorite newly departed Georgia Bulldogs. Now you can. Jarvis Jones and Alec Ogeltree jerseys are now available:
Jones will be rocking jersy number 95. I’m not necessarily a huge fan of that number selection – I prefer small numbers, but it makes sense. Especially when you consider that his old number was 29. He’s moved the 9 from the end of the number to the beginning and turned the 2 backwards. So it’s completely totally logical. I’m sure that’s why he did it. Order the jersey here.
‘Tree certainly stuck to the prototypical MLB numbering with 52. I can’t knock that. I don’t quite picture him as a ram, but the jersey is lookin good. Pick one up here.
This jersey doesn’t really exist (he will be wearing number 92), but you can create it .
Other Rookie Jersey Numbers:
- Bacarri Rambo, Washington Redskins: 29
- Shawn Williams, Cincinnati Bengals: 40
- Kwame Geathers, San Diego Chargers: 92
- Abry Jones, Jacksonville Jaguars: 91
- Branden Smith, Tampa Bay Bucs: 44
- Cornelius Washington, Chicago Bears: Unknown
- Tavarres King, Denver Broncos: Unknown
- Sanders Commings, Kansas City Chiefes: Unknown
- Marlon Brown, Houston Texans: Unknown
- Michael Gilliard, St. Louis Rams: Unknown
- Christian Robinson, St. Louis Rams: Unknown
There you have it.
That’s all I got/
- Jarvis Jones, OLB – 17th overall Draft Pick to the Pittsburgh Steelers
- Alec Ogletree, ILB – 30th overall Draft Pick to the St. Louis Rams
- John Jenkins, NT – 82nd overall Draft Pick to the New Orleans Saints
- Shawn Williams, S – 84th overall Draft Pick to the Cincinnati Bengals
- Sanders Commings, CB – 134th overall Draft Pick to the Kansas City Chiefs
- Cornelius Washington, OLB – 188th overall Draft Pick to the Chicago Bears
- Bacarri Rambo, S – 191st overall Draft Pick to the Washington Redskins
- Abry Jones, DT – Signed with Jacksonville Jaguars
- Kwame Geathers, DT – Signed with San Diego Chargers
- Michael GIlliard, MLB – Signed with St. Louis Rams
- Christian Robinson, MLB – Signed with St. Louis Rams
- Branden Smith, CB – Tampa Bay Buccaneers
That’s only 12 players. The Bulldogs are fine. They didn’t lose that much.
That’s all I got/
Live coverage from the DudeYouCrazy War
Room Porch Presented By DudeYouCrazy.net begins at 8:00 PM.
Last Two Picks: 31 – Not Manti Te’o. 32 – Not Manti Te’o. Great success!
Pick 29: Vikings, please draft Te’o so that Ogletree can be the next Ray Lewis in Baltimore. They take Corduroy Patterson.
Pick 28: Bathroom
Pick 27: Feeling really bad about Alec Ogletree. There are way too many “should have been drafted” guys still on the board. Geno Smith has to go. Te’o might need to go. Matt Elam is still around. Eddie Lacy is lingering. As is Corduroy Patterson. The Texans select Deandre Hopkins – a player who literally pooped in a hotel room.
Pick 26: Datone Jones goes. Can we pronounce that “Dat One”.
Pick 25: Why go Te’o when you can draft a football player? Xavier Rhodes could barely get out of his chair. That’s not a combine test, but maybe it should be.
Pick 24: Bjoern Werner. High effort guy with a good motor. Gruden compares him to Jarvis Jones.
Pick 23: Gruden must be the Honey Badgers agent. he is selling him harrrrrd. Meanwhile Minnesota is drafting. “I shot the” Sharrif Floyd finally gets drafted. He should have been picked ahead of Richardson.
Pick 22: Falcons move up. If they take Te’o I’m leaving the state. Whew. Des Trufant is the move. Not too shabby there for the falcers.
Pick 21: The Bengals get Tyler Eifert. This has to be bad news for former Georgia Bulldog Orson Charles.
Pick 20: Kyle Long, Howie’s other 315 pound son gets drafted. “Whoa! 315 is really big, right?” – WifeYouCrazy
Pick 19: Nap
Pick 18: LSU’s Eric Reid goes to the Niners. Interesting. Not bad. Interesting.
Pick 17: The Steelers get Jarvis Jones. This is perfect, except for the fact that I hate the Steelers. But that’s a good fit. Really happy for a damn good dawg.
Pick 16: Gruden tells Bills to take a QB in the first and in the third round. I think they could get Nassib in the 7th round. Not really. But sort of. They wisely take EJ Manuel.
Pick 15: The Saints take Kenny Vaccaro. I like him and not just because he ha a cool haircut and “blessed” tattooed on one of his forearms.
Pick 14: Carolina Panthers take Star Tlalasjlkdftouuutooaaa. I won’t learn his name until he learns mine. Star looks like he belongs in a rapper’s entourage. And I mean that in the best possible way. Seriously.
Pick 13: Sheldon Richardson – Mr. Old Man Football himself – just got drafted. Bust. Guaranteed.
Pick 12: Selfishly, I think I would look super awesome rocking a black and silver Jarvis Jones jersey. Can you make that happen Raiders? No. But against all odds the Raiders still botched it. D.J. Hayden is a risk. Injury issues, limited experience against elite WRs. he has great ball skills (hahahaha), but will struggle in run support. Why not take a DT here?
Pick 11: The Chargers pick up the third consecutive Alabama Crimson Tider, D.J. Fluker. How long until their backups get drafted?
Pick 10: The Tennessee Titans take Chance Warmack as Community Chest Warmack was not avaialable. In all seriousness, he’s a great player. He’ll be in the Pro Bowl within three years and will be a mainstay of that roster.
Pick 9: Hey Jets fans, what’s your favorite DC? See Dee Milliner.
Pick 8: The Bills wisely trade back so that they can draft a mediocre to awful college QB a little later. Rams expected to take Tavon Austin. Conspiracy time: Tavon Austin is at least 6 inches shorter than his mother. Where did he get his diminutive stature? Where did he get his athleticism? Have we seen any other tiny athletic guy at the NFL Draft? Was he hanging around for a phony reason? Yes. Barry Sanders is Tavon’s father.
Pick 7: The Cardinals snatch up Jonathan “Hangin With Mr.” Cooper out of UNC. Offensive Linemen are popular.
Pick 6: The Browns grab Barkevious Mingo. He will either be awesome or terrible. I don’t see much middle ground for him. Was that generic enough for you?
Pick 5: I’m hoping the Lions take either Marlon Brown or Tavarres King out of Georgia. Stafford deserves it. Oh snap, Barry Sanders came out to announce the Lions’ pick. That’s cool, but also super useless. how is the Madden curse going to affect him now? Oh there it is…Esekiel Ansah, a DE from BYU.
Pick 4: The Eagles just selected Lane Johnson – an offensive tackle who looks like a farmer. I like OT’s in the farmer mold. There’s a proven track record of success there.
Pick 3: The Raiders just drafted Usain Bolt!!!! Juuuust kidding. They made a trade. I’m for it. Mad props Raiders. Dolphins meanwhile screw it up trading up to get Dion Jordan. Hmmmmm. Gruden seems to think he could be the NFL’s most terrifying special teamer. Not what you want in your third pick. Jordan says he didn’t expect the trade because this is “his first time.” So he has not already been drafted??? Raiders get Miami’s 12th pick and 42nd (in second round) for that Dion Jordan move.
Pick 2: The Jacksonville Jaguars select Luke Joeckel from Texas A&M. You know what they say…He’s a Joeckel, he’s a smoeckel, he’s a midnight toeckel, blockin for Jaguars when they run. This was the right pick. I think. If the Raiders will just go ahead and draft Tavon Austin next all will be right in the world.
Pick 1: The Kansas City Chiefs just drafted
former NBA Star Derek Fisher. The First NBA Champion to be drafted first overall in the NFL Draft. Correction: ERIC Fisher. Add “Central Michigan Product Saves Kansas City Chiefs Football” to list of headlines you’ll never read. Just ridiculous. Calling it. If you “can’t even process what’s going on right now” (his words) while being interviewed by Suzy Kolber then you’re probably not quite ready to block NFL Defensive Ends.
8:08 PM: I just want to go on record with my readers (what’s up ma and pa) by saying that I have a KILLER pun ready for when Luke Joeckel gets drafted. Whenever that is.
8:05 PM: If you don’t think Roger Goodell is good at his job you’re nuts. He just turned boo-birds into chants of “USA! USA”.
8:04 PM: Things I’m already tired of:
- Jon Gruden’s Butt-Cut Hair
- Me not being Mel Kiper Jr.
- People pretending to not love Chris Berman
8:00 PM: Annnnnnd we’re live. Let me lead by saying that I had no idea the guy who sings the catchy “How You Like Me Now?” song that’s in all the commercials is black. Thanks ESPN and NFL for putting him in the intro. And for what it’s worth, I like him just as much now as before.
I admittedly didn’t know much about Ryan Nassib a few weeks ago. I knew he played at Syracuse. I knew the ‘Cuse had a good year in 2012. I knew they upset West Virginia in their snowy bowl game. That’s about it. I was stunned when I started seeing him on first-round Draft boards. Flabbergasted.
Todd McShay first started throwing his name around as a first round pick on March 28th – less than a month ago. I’m typically skeptical of “late blooming” prospects especially ones that are drafted in the first round, so I was a bit weary. To be fair: McShay didn’t actually say he’d get drafted in the first round in that mock (dated March 28th) but he offered the following as a justification for the Buffalo Bills’ selection of offensive guard Chance Warmack out of Alabama:
Whether Buffalo brings in a veteran or drafts a second-tier prospect like Syracuse QB Ryan Nassin – who played for new Bills head coach Doug Marone in college – that player will need all the help he can get. Warmack is one of the most complete guards I’ve ever evaluated.
So, just a few short weeks ago, Nassib was just a prospect – and a “second tier” one at that. His lone connection to the whole scenario was that his college coach was now coaching the Bills.
On April 10, McShay said he expected the Bills to take one of three types of players: a protector (in this scenario, Chance Warmack), a pass rusher (Barkevious Mingo) or a QB (Nassib). McShay added:
Syracuse QB Ryan Nassib seems like a natural fit in Buffalo, with his former college coach Doug Marrone taking the reins for the Bills.
Spolier alert: “Natural fit in Buffalo” does not in any way, shape or form imply “good football player.” The Bills haven’t won their division since 1995.
On April 21st McShay tabbed Nassib as the 8th overall pick, going of course, to the Buffalo Bills. His final Mock (put out today, 4/25) re-affirms that pick.
This certainly doesn’t mean that Ryan Nassib will be the 8th pick, but it certainly implies that serious consideration in the first round will come his way. Isn’t he awfully…mediocre…to be a first round draft pick? I looked into it.
Counting Nassib and fellow projected first rounder Geno Smith, there will be a total of 15 QBs drafted in the first round from 2009-2013 (a five Draft window):
- Geno Smith
- Ryan Nassib
- Andrew Luck
- RG III
- Ryan Tannehill
- Brandon Weeden
- Cam Newton
- Jake Locker
- Blaine Gabber
- Christian Ponder
- Sam Bradford
- Tim Tebow
- Matthew Stafford
- Mark Sanchez
- Josh Freeman
On a raw sense, passer rating gives a good look at how a player performed in college, so I looked at these fifteen players’ last collegiate seasons. Nassib’s passer rating ranks 10th among the group. He edges one respectable QB (Josh Freeman) and Christian Ponder, Ryan Tannehill, Blaine Gabbert and Jake Locker.
He ranks 10th in completion percentage – edging out Freeman and Matthew Stafford (legitimate NFL QBs) and Ponder, Tannehill and Locker.
He ranks 10th in yards per completion edging out Freeman, Tannehill, Locker, Ponder and Gabbert.
He’s not that good. He’s a first round QB of the Locker/Ponder variety.
But, it’s hard to say too much about a player’s collegiate statistics relative to NFL performance. That being said, I’m going to go out on a limb to say that he will not be a serviceable starter at the NFL level for the following reasons: he was not prominent at the collegiate level and he has no rare physical skill set. Hear me out:
To measure prominence I made up a completely random formula that deals with players’ national rankings (because rankings demonstrate prominence better than raw stats) in the following categories:
- Passer Rating
- Completion Percentage
- Passing Yards
- Yards Per Attempt
I found an average national ranking for those four categories and I subtracted it from 120 (a rough estimate for the number of teams in FBS football). I then added TDs thrown and subtracted INTs and sacks. The end result is a very arbitrary “prominence” score. In theory a player who ranked first in all categories while throwing 50 TDs and not being picked off or sacked would have a score of 169. Here’s how those 15 players held up:
- Sam Bradford: 147.25
- Geno Smith: 129.25
- Andrew Luck: 127
- Brandon Weeden: 124
- RG III: 120.75
- Mark Sanchez: 114.75
- Cam Newton: 106.25
- Matthew Stafford: 99
- Tim Tebow: 96.75
- Ryan Nassib: 88.5
- Josh Freeman: 79.25
- Ryan Tannehill: 78
- Blaine Gabbert: 51.5
- Christian Ponder: 48
- Jake Locker: 28
Obviously, this data does not “predict” success. Sanchez and Stafford were drafted in the same class and Stafford has obviously outperformed despite having a lower “prominence score.” The same can be said of RGIII relative to Brandon Weeden. But, Sanchez had a solid final year at USC and was certainly prominent. Weeden threw the ball a ton at Oklahoma State, and these ranking reflect that.
There are also certain common sense points that can be added:
- Locker was drafted for his previous performance, not for that of his final year at Washington.
- Newton and Tebow (and to some extent RG III) were also prominent runners, this is not reflected.
- Bradford’s data all reflect his sophomore season, he was hurt his junior year. Teams drafted on the assumption that he’d be back to form.
Josh Freeman is a unique specimen at 6-foot-6. The other guys below Nassib are not.
Nassib fits right in with the likes of Gabbert, Ponder and Locker. And that’s not a good thing.
DON’T DRAFT HIM IN THE FIRST ROUND!!!
That’s all I got/