Blog Archives

Jameis Winston Point Shaving? I Can See It.


All season long, Florida State has not been the team that hoisted college football’s last crystal trophy in January. For the 2013 season, the Noles won by an average margin of 51.6-12.1, which is just ludicrous, and went 11-2-1 against the spread.

This year, while still riding along undefeated with no threats standing between them and the College Football Playoff (apologies to Miami), the Noles have done something interesting: they haven’t dominated. Or even come close to it.

The average margin for FSU this year is 38.4-22.8, and if you exclude laughers against The Citadel and Wake Forest, that number shrinks to 31.6-27.8 (hot take for another day: why Florida State doesn’t belong in the playoff).

Something is just off about this team, and I noted it recently on the podcast, saying they were 1-6 against the spread after the Notre Dame game (and picking Louisville to upset them). Again, in 2013? 11-2-1. Things have a way of evening themselves out in betting, but to that extreme for a team who has lost a game in neither season?

thinker

Well….. http://www.foxsports.com/college-football/outkick-the-coverage/website-alleges-jameis-winston-shaved-points-in-first-half-of-louisville-game-110614

For those who are link-clicking averse, the short version is this: Jameis Winston’s high school teammate Chris Rabb put $5500 down on Louisville +1 in the first half of last Thursday’s game. Winston threw two picks and went into the locker room down 21-7. Rabb wins $5000 on the $5500 (UL +1 was going off at -110, which, for the betting illiterate means that if Louisville was doing better than down by one, Rabb wins).

Again, Florida State has played a lot of “why is this so close?” games this year. N.C. State, who just last week won its first conference game in 13 tries, led the Noles by two touchdowns into the third quarter in September. The Noles are so supremely talented vs. the rest of the ACC, though, that they can flip the igniter and run away. Dangerous tactic, yes, but (thus far) effective.

I’ll let you draw your own conclusions on this, but for a team to endure such a precipitous drop in play vs. competition is eye-opening. And for a guy with as many hiccups as Winston, it just makes too much sense to not investigate.

If you’re looking for a way to watch past Georgia highlights and get access to some other great content, make sure to check out The UGA Vault!

Picture the Game: Georgia Southern


This is the first in a series of new installments that features DudeYouCrazy’s world-famous artistic skills and his mastery of the “Paint” computer program.

This picture is an illustrated example of what he expects in the Georgia Southern Game.  Enjoy.

 

Click to Enlarge.

 

That’s all I got/

Andrew

 

Georgia Florida Preview: From the Dark Side


This Preview comes from my childhood best friend, Brett, who like me made every effort to avoid the Big Orange while growing up in East Tennessee.  Unfortunately he settled for a different shade of orange and took to liking the Florida Gators.  I asked him to write this piece because he is knowledgeable, a life-long Florida fan and because DudeYouCrazy is the Fox News of college football: Conservative  Fair and Balanced .

——————————————–

Brett’s From the Gut Prediction: Florida 19 (1 TD + 4 FGs) – Georgia 10 (However they can get it).

Cross that line.  I dare you.  Either of you.

Thoughts, Feelings, and Facts

Tomorrow’s World’s Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party World’s Largest Outdoor Sobriety Gala in J-ville cannot and will not be forecasted by history, statistics, or the fact that Georgia boasts better ex-QB commercials, politicians, stadium names, or television alumni than Florida (per that DudeYouCrazy character). Therefore, I am not going to spit stats (maybe a few) about each player and previous games from this year in order to back up my subsequent beliefs. Believe it or not, the factors in determining the outcome of this college football extravaganza will be punting (which leads to field position) and kicking of the field goals. I know what you are thinking – man, that sounds super exciting! Well, I’m sorry to disintegrate (burst) your effervesce (bubble) (definitions for the GA folk), but Florida does not have the most notable offense and although Georgia can put up considerable numbers, mark my words – that will not happen Saturday in JAX.

Coming into Saturday’s earth-shattering matchup at 2nd  and 1st  in the nation in punting (here is one stat), Kyle Christy is averaging a colossal 47.9 yards per punt with a net of 44.42 yards (that’s 2 stats). This wouldn’t matter all too much if it weren’t for the fact that Florida punts a lot (seriously, 37 times this year, another stat) and has still managed to remain unbeaten. With an average of five or more punts per game and no doubt in my mind that it won’t be any different tomorrow, Kyle Christy will continue his hulk-like football punting and lead the Gators in triumph over the Bulldogs (<-not a typo, I went to college and refuse to spell it the Georgia way). I also lied about my spouting of stats, there’s more than a few (my apologies).

Sticking to the theme of overpowering the opponent with legs of steel, Caleb Sturgis (aka Thunderfoot) is the Gator that seems to never graduate (Dude’s Note: No Joke! Rip Van Winkle said that guy was playing before he went to sleep).  Sturgis was granted a medical redshirt after missing the last nine games of the 2010 season. There’s not much else to say about Sturgis besides the fact that he is money and if this game comes down to a kicking contest between the 5th-year Thunderfoot and UGA’s frosh, I have a feeling the outcome will likely be in favor of the Gators.

Proving DudeYouCrazy Wrong While Making Him a Believer

Recently I tweeted @DudeYouCrazy, asking him what it would take to believe in this year’s Florida Gators. My tweet was as follows, “What’s it gonna take for @DudeYouCrazy to believe in the #Gators? Or at least think they’re a good team. USC who?”  @DudeYouCrazy responded with, “@BG_33 I will either not believe or be terrified of them on Saturday evening. I’m hoping I still don’t believe!”

It seems that after every week of CFB, DudeYouCrazy’s recaps are filled with feelings of disgust for the Gators even though they continue to win. I’m guessing this is because of my continued attempts to turn him into a Gator fan throughout our childhood. As everyone can see, these attempts were smothered as he moved to Georgia and we became football enemies for this one-week out of the entire year.  I’m thinking you’ll believe in something (whether it’s the Orange and Blue or Coach Boom) come 7:30 PM Saturday evening. In all honesty, I’m just hoping Georgia brings a little more competition than the Cocks did last week! Should be a fun little afternoon of football, natty light, and plenty of precisely cut jorts.

Go Gators!

Brett Goeringer

Week Eight Preview…Haters Edition


Buckle up boys and girls it’s Hate Week for Georgia and Florida fans alike.  In that spirit, let’s just into the weekly preview and drink some Haterade.

 

SEC-sy Time 

Kentucky travels to Missouri for a game that I would hate to watch.  Neither of these teams has a top-90 offense, so yeah that’s not gonna be fun.  But, this game has serious divisional implications.  The loser is likely to finish last in the Sec East assuming Tennessee doesn’t lay an egg.  And, both teams have a real shot at being the SEC’s worst Cat Mascotted team.  I’m taking Kentucky!  Missouri is going to be shut out!

 

I hate both Tennessee and South Carolina, but I wouldn’t hate to see Derek Dooley and the Volunteers do the community some service by dropping the Gamecocks.  And, I really think Carolina is going to lose this week or next (to Arkansas) to complete their typical second-half collapse (although they might ice that cake with a loss and a fistfight at Clemson on November 24th). But, since it’s hate week I can’t take the upset because I’d like that.  Cocks win.

 

Ole Miss travels to Arkansas for a game that I just hate Bobby Petrino is missing and that I will hate to see ruin Ole Miss’s season even without him.  Arkansas wins.

 

Vanderbilt is hosting UMass in a game that I’d hate to waste your time talking about.  Commies win.

 

A co-worker today asked me if Texas A&M would kill AuburnI hated to tell her this, but that will in fact happen.  Auburn is the third worst offense in the country.  Not just “out in the country” where Auburn, Alabama is located.  I mean in the nation.

 

Mississippi State fans are going to hate me for saying this, but Alabama is about to roll over you, Tide style.  Bold side-bet: MSU is going to drop out of the top-25 before Mitt Romney is elected President.  You heard it here first.

 

Other Game(s) of (Possible) Interest

 

Kansas State is playing host to Texas Tech in what is technically a matchup of good teams.  I kind of want to put the Wildcats on upset alert here, but I’m not totally sold on TTU’s ability to engineer a win.  If, however, they can bridge the gap between the Wildcats’ electric offense and their civilian defense it could work out.  The computer rankings sure would like that.  If you’re keeping track I just used the following words that you would find in a Techie College brocure: Technically, Engineer, Bridge, Electric, Civil, Computer.  So yeah, the Raiders win, thanks to my effort.

That is the only top-25 matchup of the week outside of the SEC where that crap happens daily (except Sunday through Friday), so I’ll jump into some other goodies.

 

Must-Miss YouTube 

If you guys didn’t see this a few weeks ago, don’t watch it now.  This video breaks down serious Big 10 issues by interviewing SEC fans at a Georgia game.  Pretty classic.

 

Heisman Watch

 

Here is why you should hate each Heisman Candidate this week:

  • Collin Klein, Kansas State: They guy only has 2000 yards of offense in 7 games.  That’s not impressive for a QB, especially in a conference that has 40% of its teams surrendering more than 31 points per game.
  • Manti Te’o, ND: Not exactly a household name.
  • Kenjon Barber, Oregon: Put this guy in Georgia’s backfield against SEC competition and tell me who plays: him or Gurley.
  • A.J. McCarron, Alabama: This guy’s stats are impressive.  His 1476 yards passing are 77% as many as Aaron Murray, and he’s getting almost as many yards per attempt too!
  • Braxton Miller, Ohio State: Wait, you’re telling me there’s a QB out there with a QB Rating of 138.3 and 11 TD passes to go with 5 INTs and he’s on the Heisman watch list?  Oh, but he runs the ball?  For almost 1000 yards?  Man, they must have one explosive offense.  Oh, they’re 41st in the country in yards per game?  Then, maybe this guy is just a ball hog and they’re not as efficient as they could be.

 

You guys have fun this weekend.  Watch the football.  Tune in tomorrow and Saturday for a lot more Georgia/Florida coverage including but not limited to:

  • A full Game breakdown from Dude
  • An opposing (Jort-wearing) breakdown from a Florida fan
  • Live blog during GA/FL

 

That’s all I got/

Andrew

 

Bad News for the Bulldogs: Math Predicts Pending Loss to Florida


A few weeks back I analyzed Georgia’s offensive and defensive performance relative to their opposition’s respective defensive and offensive performance in other games.  I then ran the same regressions on the University of South Carolina.  The goal of this was to determine how much Georgia was scoring relative to what the Dawgs’ competition were typically allowing, and vice versa.  By doing the same with the South Carolina Gamecocks I determined what to expect on their side of the ball.  The resulting figures implied a much higher upside for South Carolina with regards to potential points scored, and sure enough that came to fruition.

I did the same regression with the Florida / LSU game that weekend and found the Gators to have more upside.  Again, that prediction proved correct.

This week, in honor of hate week, I’m taking it a step further.  This week I analyzed all opponents relative to their entire slate of FBS opposition and relative to only competition from BCS Conferences.  My gut tells me that the BCS Conference data is more accurate, but by also using other FCS (form Division I-A) schools I can gauge the consistency of opposition better.  Finally, I took a page out of the BCS Computer Rankings’ books and eliminated potential outliers (for the statisticians out there, I realize that I did not truly determine if a figure/game was an outlier, but neither does the BCS formula) by dropping each team’s offense’s worst and best games and doing the same for the defenses.

Here’s what I found…

Georgia Scoring FBS Model: 

Georgia’s seven opponents have given up the following scoring averages to FBS opposition and actual points (after the slash) to Georgia:

  • Buffalo: 30 / 45
  • Missouri: 26 / 41
  • FAU: 32 / 56
  • Vandy: 20 / 48
  • Tennessee: 34 / 51
  • South Carolina: 18 / 7
  • Kentucky: 33 / 29

With those figures in mind Georgia is scoring about 43.5% more than their opposition typically gives up to other squads.  Thus far, Florida has surrendered an average of 12.1 points per game against FBS opposition.  If Georgia scores 43.5% more than that, the Dawgs could expect to score 17 points.

Similarly Florida’s defense has played opponents with the following scoring averages and surrendered the accompanying points (after the slash):

  • Bowling Green: 20 / 14
  • Texas A&M: 36 / 17
  • Tennessee: 34 / 20
  • Kentucky: 22 / 0
  • LSU: 34 / 6
  • Vandy: 13 / 17
  • South Carolina: 34 / 11

With that in mind Florida’s defense is only yielding 44% of their opponents’ outside season scoring average.  Georgia is averaging 39.6 points per game, so against Florida’s stout defense the Dawgs could once again expect to score around 17 points.

 

Georgia Scoring BCS Model 

When opposing defensive stats are limited to only BCS opponents, Georgia’s performance on Offense changes to this over seven games:

  • Buffalo: 22 / 45
  • Missouri: 28 / 41
  • FAU: 40 / 56
  • Vandy: 20 / 48
  • Tennessee: 36 / 51
  • South Carolina: 18 / 7
  • Kentucky: 37 / 29

These figures imply that Georgia scores 37.8% more than the Dawgs’ opponents typically give up to BCS opponents.  Florida is surrendering 11.8 points per game against BCS foes, so Georgia could expect to score 16 points in this game.

Similarly, Florida’s defensive figures change in this way when limited to BCS opponents:

  • Bowling Green: 20 / 14
  • Texas A&M: 36 / 17
  • Tennessee: 34 / 20
  • Kentucky: 22 / 0
  • LSU: 34 / 6
  • Vandy: 13 / 17
  • South Carolina: 34 / 11

And, the Gators are allowing 58.6% of their opponents’ BCS scoring average.  This, when combined with Georgia’s 35.2 point offensive output against BCS foes, indicates a Georgia score of about 21 points against the Gators.

 

Georgia Scoring Drop Model 

When Georgia’s best and worst offensive games (relative to opponent scoring) and Florida’s best and worst defensive games (relative to opponent scoring) are dropped the following happens:

  • Georgia projects to score 36.6% more than opposition typically surrenders.
  • Florida’s points allowed rises from 11.8 against BCS foes to 14.2.
  • Georgia projects to score 19 points.

And

  • Florida projects to allow only 54.6% of opponents’ average points.
  • Georgia’s points scored against BCS foes goes from 35.2 points to 40.3.
  • Georgia projects to score 22 points.

For what it’s worth Georgia’s offense dropped the Vanderbilt game as its best relative outing and the South Carolina game as its worse.  Florida dropped the Kentucky game its best relative outing and the Bowling Green game as its worst (go figure).

 

Florida Scoring FBS Model 

Florida’s seven opponents have given up the following scoring averages to FBS opposition and actual points (after the slash) to Florida:

  • Bowling Green: 27 / 27
  • Texas A&M: 24 / 20
  • Tennessee: 37 / 37
  • Kentucky: 32 / 38
  • LSU: 14 / 14
  • Vandy: 23 / 31
  • South Carolina: 12 / 44

With those figures in mind Florida is scoring about 24.9% more than their opposition typically gives up to other squads.  Thus far, Georgia has surrendered an average of 24.1 points per game against FBS opposition.  If Florida scores 24.9% more than that, the Gators could expect to score 30 points.

Similarly Georgia’s defense has played opponents with the following scoring averages and surrendered the accompanying points (after the slash):

  • Buffalo: 13 / 23
  • Missouri: 16 / 20
  • FAU: 13 / 20
  • Vandy: 16 / 3
  • Tennessee: 31 / 44
  • South Carolina: 31 / 35
  • Kentucky: 19 / 24

With that in mind Georgia’s defense is yielding 21.6% more than their opponents’ outside season scoring average.  Florida is averaging 30.1 points per game, so against Georgia’s struggling defense the Gators could once again expect to score around 37 points.

 

Florida Scoring BCS Model 

When opposing defensive stats are limited to only BCS opponents, Florida’s performance on offense changes to this over seven games:

  • Bowling Green: 37 / 27
  • Texas A&M: 20 / 20
  • Tennessee: 39 / 37
  • Kentucky: 35 / 38
  • LSU: 19 / 14
  • Vandy: 23 / 31
  • South Carolina: 14 / 44

These figures imply that Florida scores 12.8% more than the Gators’ opponents typically give up to BCS opponents.  Georgia is surrendering 25.2 points per game against BCS foes, so Florida could expect to score 25 points in this game.

Similarly, Georgia’s defensive figures change in this way when limited to BCS opponents:

  • Buffalo: 12 / 23
  • Missouri: 15 / 20
  • FAU: 7 / 20
  • Vandy: 16 / 3
  • Tennessee: 25 / 44
  • South Carolina: 24 / 35
  • Kentucky: 13 / 24

And, the Dawgs are allowing 150.9% of their opponents’ BCS scoring average.  This, when combined with Florida’s 30.7 point offensive output against BCS foes, indicates a Florida score of about 46 points against the Georgia.

 

Florida Scoring Drop Model 

When Florida’s best and worst offensive games (relative to opponent scoring) and Georgia’s best and worst defensive games (relative to opponent scoring) are dropped the following happens:

  • Florida projects to score 2.9% more than opposition typically surrenders.
  • Georgia’s points allowed rises from 25.2 against BCS foes to 29.2.
  • Florida projects to score 30 points.

And

  • Georgia projects to allow 164% of opponents’ average points.
  • Florida’s points scored against BCS foes goes from 30.7 points to 28.
  • Florida projects to score 46 points.

For what it’s worth Florida’s offense dropped the South Carolina game as its best relative outing and the Bowling Green game as its worse.  Georgia dropped the Vandy game its best relative outing and the Florida Atlantic game as its worst (go figure).

 

Statistical Conclusion…Are You Guys Still Reading This? 

I don’t like, any of this data because it makes Georgia look bad.  But in my heart I think that the last data sets used (BCS, dropping best and worst) is the most accurate.  This allows every opponent that Georgia and Florida have played to either be counted or eliminated based on their performance against BCS schools.  In other words, Florida Atlantic and Bowling Green still matter.  Both schools ate up a “worst” performance game that I’m sure Florida and Georgia would have loved to delegate elsewhere.  And, this allows for statistical anomalies/uncharacteristic games to be smoothed out.  For instance, Florida’s offense shouldn’t be elevated too highly for the South Carolina game as most of those points were generated by the defense.  Similarly, Georgia’s game against Vanderbilt appears to be out of the norm on the season and both offensive and defensive efforts were discounted.

If we look at this model we see Georgia projected to score between 19 and 22 points.  And, we see Florida projected to score between 30 and 46 points.  Split the differences and we’re talking about a 38-21 ball game in favor of the Gators.

I don’t think this type of analysis yields accurate score predictions.  In other words, I don’t think we will have a 45-20 (on the extreme side) or the aforementiond 39-21 game with Florida winning on Saturday.  I do, however, think this type of analysis shows in a statistical manner which team has the higher potential based on previous performance.

Now, if Georgia comes in and wins the game will I stop believing in this method?  No.  Because again, I think it works on potential that has already been displayed.  I think Georgia (especially on the defensive side of the ball) has a much, much higher potential than has been shown thus far.  Florida fans may feel the same way regarding the Gators on the offensive side of the ball.  But, each passing game can have a vast impact on future regressions.  Consider this:

If Georgia came out and managed to win a 35-21 (random, possible football score) ball game, and the two teams were scheduled to square off again next week the numbers would narrow.  If all conditions were held the same and I eliminated the best and worst performances of each offense and defense but kept the Georgia/Florida hypothetical game, the ranges would change significant.  The range median would go from a 38-20.5 Florida win to a 30-27 Florida win.

So, let’s hope those ranges change if you’re a Dawg fan.  And, as I’ll discuss later that needs to happen on the defensive side of the ball.

 

That’s all I got/

Andrew

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