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The Death of Notre Dame Football: At Least as Far as I’m Concerned

Two-ish Disclosures:

1. I wrote this from my cozy spot in coach on a Delta flight.  If you know me I’m about 6-3 and husky (yes, husky).  I don’t fit so well in those seats and it’s a safe bet that if a word needed something on the left side of the keyboard, it got misspelled.  Fortunately I was on the aisle but I didn’t exactly have room on my left side for proper wrist positioning.

2. More important but less valid as an excuse, I’m staying at the Palmer House in Chicago which claims to be where the chocolate brownie was invented.  That is all I can think about right now.  I’m making no effort to proof-read this.  I’m getting a brownie.  A party to that, I wrote this on Tuesday and it’s going live on Wednesday so I’m pretty sure there are some seriously confusing tidbits regarding “yesterday’s” game which by the time you read it will be two days ago.  Know that I realize when the game was and if I say “last night” I was talking about “Monday night.”  But the Dude has to get a brownie five minutes ago.

Enjoy.  Maybe.

This isn’t an article about the Alabama Crimson Tide’s third National Title in four years.  It’s not an article about how as a Georgia fan I thought the Dawgs should have gotten a rematch in the National Championship.  It’s not an article about the SEC’s strength or about the seven consecutive titles the Conference claims.  I will probably touch on all of those things, but that’s not what this article is about.  This article is about the Fighting Irish of Notre Dame and the national ignorance that has given and continues to give credence to the Catholic football team that calls South Bend, Indiana “home.”

Notre Dame is not a good team.  I hypothesized on the Twitter Machine that I thought Notre Dame looked like an 8-4 team.  That was before they took the field against Alabama.  It then became overwhelmingly evident that even I – an unashamed Catholic School Football Hater/SEC Homer/Logical Thinker – had given the Irish too much credit.  If Notre Dame is an 8-4 football team, they must be playing in the MAC.  If Notre Dame is really talented and coached well enough to consistently win eight games then their competition level must be downright childish.  And yet, Notre Dame won twelve games this year.  So what gives?


Notre Dame’s Schedule

Notre Dame did more to prove the strength of the SEC last night than Alabama, Auburn, Florida and LSU had managed to do in their combined six consecutive National Titles.  Notre Dame’s goose egg in the first half said more about the strength of the SEC than the fact that seven teams (Alabama, Texas A&M, Georgia, South Carolina, Florida, LSU and Vanderbilt) finished in the AP Poll’s final top-25.  You see, this was a team that by all accounts had played a real schedule.

If you could look past the fact that nearly half of Notre Dame’s games were won by seven or fewer points then maybe you showed some interest in Notre Dame’s schedule.  But, if you did show that interest you were in the vast minority if you looked at the actual quality of the teams Notre Dame played.  Because you couldn’t possibly look at the Irish’s mediocre performances against sub-par teams and think the Catholics belonged in Monday night’s game.  And the overwhelming sentiment was that the Fighting Irish had a fighting chance.

This year ND needed OT to beat a crappy Pittsburgh squad that got blown out by Ole Miss.   ND struggled against a Stanford team (and frankly, we all know the Cardinal scored an uncounted TD), and Stanford in turn struggled against a five-loss Wisconsin team (the Badgers covered the spread by several points).  ND needed “a goal line stand for the ages” to beat USC.  USC lost half a dozen games and was embarrassed by Georgia Tech in a Bowl game.  ND was generally unimpressive against Boston College.  ND struggled (at least to an extent) against the Michigan team that was emasculated by Alabama in front of a sold out Dallas, TX.

Were these games coincidental?  Were they one-off outliers?  I don’t think so.  Were they a trend?  Were they representative of Notre Dame’s 2012 season?  The answer came last night for the slower thinkers and it was an overwhelming YES!

The Perfect Season

I joked on Twitter last night that a thousand talking-heads who somehow are more credible than I am would coin countless phrases along the lines of, “Lost in this poor performance is the fact that Notre Dame really had a magical year this year.”  I half-way agree with that sentiment.

Notre Dame had the perfect season this year.  They won 12 games, several of which they could have easily lost, against mediocre opposition while steamrolling on a train of praise readily offered up by the media with only one stop: The Days of Old.  Notre Dame is back!  The Irish are returning to prominence.  They are relevant!  At least that’s what we were told.  Over. And over. And over. And over.

That – the media’s insistence of the importance of Notre Dame – is the perfect season for Notre Dame.  How many times did you hear a pundit or ignorant ND fan insist that college football is better when Notre Dame is better?  How many times did those pundits answer to the rise of college football without Notre Dame over the past 15+ years?

But Notre Dame is back!  Notre Dame is the new Lebron James (but without a first, second or third quarter).  We are all witnesses!  I witnessed it with the hire of Ty Willingham when I was in middle school.  Notre Dame was back!  Charlie Weiss and Jimmy Clausen brought Notre Dame back too!  Now Manti Te’o and a non-existent offense have finally resurrected the program!

This was the perfect season for Notre Dame.  And it ended the perfect way.  The Irish were thoroughly outmatched by a superior opponent.  But at the end of the day the coup had already been staged.  America had talked the Irish into the National Championship Game.

The Media

It’s days like today where it borders on embarrassing to kind of sort of almost be associated with the college football media.  I don’t vote in the AP Poll, but I’ve been credentialed in the same manner as those who do vote and I belong to the same professional affiliation as many of them (FWAA).  As far as Notre Dame is concerned there were four distinct phases of Media ignorancer:

  1.  Ignorant Hyping: Notre Dame began to win some games on the heels of some Hawaiian dude who went through some personal tragedy and suddenly the world was one big Irish oyster.  But hadn’t we seen that story before?  Didn’t the University of Hawaii coin the whole “ride the Hawaiian’s tribal tattoos straight to the top while beating mediocre opposition” process?  They did.  Their 2007 Sugar Bowl matchup with Georgia was a precursor to Notre Dame’s embarrassing defeat last night.  The Media hyped ND to the extent that ESPN had a special “Coaches Corner” show featuring Notre Dame coaches past and present while Nick Saban diligently prepared for his third ring in four years.  This phase lasted well into the first quarter of Monday night’s game.
  2. Ignorant Disbelief:  By the middle of the first quarter most media members were in shock.  Many had predicted Notre Dame to win (some in dramatic fashion), others had predicted a close game.  Hardly anyone predicted a blowout with the Tide rolling.  Kirk Herbstreit and Brent Musburger tried to sell the “spirit of Notre Dame” repeatedly as Manti Te’o laid on his back and reached for a juking Eddie Lacy already in the endzone.  They ran out of inspirational messages by the end of the first quarter with Alabama knocking at the door of a 21-0 lead.  The second quarter was the most silent quarter of National Championship Football history.
  3. Reckoning for the Ignorance: Then came the reckoning.  The “Alabama’s line is really dominating” statements lead to “I’m surprised be the efficiency with which Alabama is moving the ball.”  Slowly the media turned on Notre Dame in an effort to say something nice about a team that was handing out one of the largest cans of whoop-ass this college football season could claim.  By the end of the game several media outlets were singing a different tune.  Every media outlet shared a general disgust for Notre Dame’s presence in the game and was adamant about the need for a playoff.  Everyone agreed that the game was a disaster.
  4. The Return to Ignorance:  This was the most ignorant phase of all the ignorant phases!  Tuesday morning I woke up to discover that Notre Dame finished fourth in the final AP Poll.  Now, the same people who spent the entire season selling a defected product before pretending to recognize that it wasn’t really what the customer wanted were back on the sales floor pithing the same product to the same customer.  Notre Dame – the team that was a travesty to the system and an insult to Alabama – finished the season ranked fourth in the nation.  FOURTH!

Who’s Better than Notre Dame?

Notre Dame’s record, although unblemished, was shaky at best heading into the National Championship game.  No they hadn’t lost, but who of real value had they defeated?  Who of real value had they competed with?  The short answer: nobody.  This game should have destroyed any and all remaining credibility Notre Dame had, and I don’t know that they had any!

But here they are, ranked fourth in the nation.  You know who’s better than Notre Dame?  Based on what I saw Monday night a couple dozen teams are.  Based on résumés, here is a short list of teams I watched in the postseason that I think could beat Notre Dame:

  • Texas A&M: The Aggies actually beat Alabama.  In Tuscaloosa.  Enough said.
  • Florida: All season the knock has been on Florida’s offense.  I’m not sure that Florida’s offense is any worse than the Notre Dame defense that showed up to play Bama.  And, I know that Notre Dame couldn’t move the ball on the Gators.
  • Louisville: I don’t think Louisville got Florida’s best game (not by a long shot), but if you don’t think Charlie Strong could outcoach Brian Kelly you are out of your mind.
  • LSU: See explanation on Florida.
  • South Carolina: No Lattimore, no problem.  Jadeveon Clowney might kill Everett Golson.  Literally.
  • Vanderbilt: I’m not kidding here.  Vanderbilt looked better than Notre Dame.
  • Georgia: Did anyone else watch the SEC Championship?  Or any other game Georgia played?  Then you know what I mean.

Notre Dame’s loss to Alabama vs. Georgia’s loss to South Carolina

I’ll head this one off before I read about it in the comment section.  South Carolina beat the tar out of Georgia in early October.  Alabama just beat the tar out of Notre Dame.  These two losses (for Georgia and Notre Dame respectively) are completely different for a number of reasons including, but not limited to:

  • Georgia played at South Carolina – a very hostile environment.  Notre Dame played Alabama on neutral field and by all accounts the stadium was split evenly and Miami as a whole was about 5-to-1 in favor of Notre Dame fans.
  • Georgia had Sunday, Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday and Friday to prepare for the game.  Notre Dame had over six weeks.
  • South Carolina played an out-of-their-minds, scary good game against Georgia.  Alabama played the way they always play against Notre Dame.
  • This. Was. The. National. Championship. Period.

Manti Te’o = Notre Dame Football

I love nothing more than bagging on college-aged kids because I am heartless never-was and that’s what I do.  I’m not going to bag on Manti any more.  I’m just going to make a few short points.  Manti Te’o is the most pure and unadulterated representation of Notre Dame you could find.  He’s overhyped by the media.  He’s good at what he should be good at – he makes tackles; the Irish beat bad teams.  I don’t know that he would start for a few SEC teams and I know that he wouldn’t be a household name if he played at Mississippi State.

Allegedly Manti Te’o recorded 10 tackles on Monday night.  Do you remember any of them?  Me neither.  But he’s really, really, really good – so we’re told.  Notre Dame won 12 games this year.  Do any of those mean anything?  No.  But the Irish are back! So we’re told.

Wait, haven’t I heard this before?

You mad, bro?

Yeah I’m mad.  I love college football.  I spend an inordinate amount of time(WifeYouCrazy might use the term “obsessive”)  on college football.  I’m a fan of the game.  And this is what I get?  It’s insulting.

What’s the solution?  Is it a playoff?  Is it the end of automatic tie-in?  Is it the abolishment of the BCS?  I don’t know.  But how about we start here: IF YOU ARE VOTING, WATCH THE FREAKING GAMES!

Monday night shouldn’t have been a shock to somebody who is paid to watch, know and write about college football.  Notre Dame shouldn’t be ranked in the top-5 by professional sports writers.  It’s embarrassing.

That’s all I got/


National Championship Preview: This Dawg Says Roll Tide…Just for a Night

Id’ be lying if I said this didn’t hurt.  On every possible level this at the very least kind of sucks.  I still wish Georgia was playing tonight.  Aaron Murray claims to be “over it.”  He moved on faster than I did.  That’s embarrassing.  Even aside from that still-stinging defeat, the end of college football season is a dark time for me every year.  The transition to the offseason and basketball is never easy.

The only thing that could soften the blow is a convincing Alabama win.  I hate Notre Dame.  The Irish haven’t been relevant for years.  This is just their third 10+ win season in the last 18 years.  But if you were from a foreign country and came to the United States at any point during that time period and watched College Football on TV (you’d never leave!) you’d think the Fighting Irish were perennial champions.  They aren’t.  And I don’t want them to be.

If Notre Dame wins the National Championship this year then my children will likely be hearing about it 20 years from now, even if the Irish don’t win another game.  I don’t want another generation stuck watching the golden helmets on Saturday when a better team is playing.  I don’t want another Manti Te’o making tackles the way a middle linebacker should and getting hailed as the greatest thing since all you can eat seats and sporting events.  I don’t want it.

I want Alabama to win.  I’m not happy that Saban is back in the game, but I want him to win.  A Crimson Tide victory squashes (for now) the evil that is Notre Dame and furthers the cause of the greatest conference in the history of college football.  So can they do it?

Of course they can.  I’ve watched Alabama and Notre Dame play several times this year and here are some eye-ball tests that favor the Tide:

  • Frankly, I don’t know that Notre Dame can score – at all – against Alabama.  Alabama has the best defense in the country, and I’m not sure that Notre Dame’s offense is anymore advanced than say…Mississippi State.
  • Manti Te’o is a good linebacker.  I couldn’t tell you another ND backer’s name because every tackle is credited to Te’o even if he’s on the sideline.  Manti Te’o is not as good at the linebacker position as Eddie Lacy and T.J. Yeldon are at the running back position.  I am confident of that.
  • Furthermore, Notre Dame’s front seven has never, ever, even in their wildest dreams seen anything like Alabama’s offensive line.
  • I joke a lot, but when I watch Notre Dame play I see an 8-4 team.

Statistically the gap closes a bit, but Alabama played five teams that were ranked (at the time) in the top-25 and Notre Dame played only four.  Alabama’s two best wins are close victories over 7th ranked Georgia and 8th ranked LSU.  Notre Dame’s two best wins are against 6th ranked Stanford and 11th ranked Oklahoma.  The two share one common opponent – Michigan.  Notre Dame beat Michigan at home 13-6.  Alabama beat Michigan in Texas 41-14.

The math favors Alabama (although not by the margin of the spread) and so does common sense.  Roll Tide…tonight and tonight only.

That’s all I got/


This Post is Graphic in Nature: A Dawg’s National Championship Preview

Most of you hate these things, so I figured I’d end the season on a sour note.  Here are a few graphs to make tonight’s National Championship game a little easier to understand.

Similar Programs

The similarity of these two “power” programs is being oversold right now.  Sure, there’s a lot of history for each program, but as you can probably tell by this chart,  Notre Dame and Alabama haven’t exactly been on the same page as of late.

Click to enlarge.

Click to enlarge.


Alabama is Pretty Much Better at Everything

This chart shows the National Ranking of both Alabama and Notre Dame in several categories.  In this instance, a lower line is a good thing as the best possible ranking is 1.  I gave Notre Dame a crimson colored line and Alabama a blue line just to confuse you.

Click to enlarge.

Click to enlarge.


Notre Dame’s Entitlement and Alabama’s Chip

For some reason Notre Dame thinks they belong in this game.  They do not.  And I think that makes Saban angry.  You won’t like him when he’s angry.

Click to enlarge.

Click to enlarge.


Check back later this afternoon for a slightly more formal game preview.  Enjoy the game.

That’s all I got/


A Dawg Fan’s Top 10 Biggest BCS Blunders

Judging by the outrage since Sunday night, I’m assuming that people thought the College Football Playoff system started this year. It does not. The BCS as we know and hate it is still in existence. That being said, I still think the BCS will do a fine job of crowning the National Champion as long as the SEC Champion continues to go to the one game that actually counts. I’m not defending the wackiness that is the BCS or otherwise expressing my excitement for Georgia’s fate in Orlando, but it is what it is and I know what it is so that’s it.

But, if we’re going to complain we might as well do it in an organized manner. So here we go.

Here are the 10 Biggest Travesties of this years’ BCS

10. I feel really bad for Manti Te’o and Notre Dame’s draw of Alabama in the BCS National Championship. I don’t know that the outcome would have been any different with Georgia in the game (the Tide and the Dawgs played what was apparently a decent game on Saturday afternoon), but there’s a good chance that Eddie Lacy and T.J. Yeldon will ruin any credibility Notre Dame’s defense has. Manti Te’o could be trucked out of the first round of the NFL Draft and possibly even off the face of the planet. The Tide (or the “Taaaaaadddd” if you’re a true Alabama fan) is gonna roll.

9. It’s a shame that Florida State drew Northern Illinois in this year’s Discover Orange Bowl. I’ll write more on the Huskies in a bit but I think the ‘Noles will discover that NIU isn’t good – even by ACC standards. And I hate to see ACC teams winning BCS Bowls.

8. It’s a shame that Wisconsin got in. I actually like Wiscy too, (almost as much as I like Whiskey). But it’s ridiculous that a five-loss Big Ten team is playing in a game of significance against a Stanford team that lost to Washington. That’s not why the system was created. And even if the system is about making money, I can guarantee more could be made with other teams.

7. The eight teams playing in the four normal BCS Bowls feature a combined total of 15 losses. That wouldn’t be so bad except that if you add up the teams finishing in spots 3-10 of the BCS (the ones who should be playing) you get a total of 13 and four of those teams (Georgia, LSU, A&M and South Carolina) didn’t make a BCS game because they combined to lose eight games to each other or to Florida and Alabama.

6. The eight teams chosen (if that’s the right term) also combine for 58 wins against BCS Conference opponents. Remember, some conferences automatically are slated for a bid unless something weird happens (hence the not really “chosen” aspect). Those conferences apparently hold some type of intrinsic value and according to the BCS are “good.” So those 58 wins might sound really awesome. It’s not. If the spots 3-10 were selected that total would be 64.

5. As a Georgia fan, it still royally sucks that Florida is in the Sugar Bowl over the Bulldogs (or frankly anyone else, Kent State was soooo close!). I’m not complaining about Florida I’m complaining about the system. And I’m not mad – because this is no surprise here – I’m just complaining. I am not, and no other UGA fan currently is, discrediting Florida’s accomplishments. What Florida has accomplisheddefeat of currently 8th ranked LSU, defeat of 9th ranked A&M, defeat of 10th ranked South Carolina and defeat of 12th ranked FSU – is undeniably impressive. I am, however, discrediting Florida for what the Gators did not accomplish – namely their 0-1 record against teams ranked above 8th and a failure to win their own division. And again, I’m only complaining for the sake of complaining. This is how the system works and Georgia benefited from it in 2007 (didn’t win division but got Sugar Bowl bid) as much as Florida is benefiting from it now. But it’s still wrong.

4. If you can get past the who part of the BCS Bowl pool (Louisville, Florida, NIU, FSU, Oregon, K-State, Wisconsin, Stanford) it’s still hard to understand the Oregon vs. Kansas State matchup. Not because the teams are undeserving (within the pool at hand I’d rank both of these teams in the top-4 along with Florida and Stanford) but because they both deserve to beat the tar out of some crummy opposition. This may be the most entertaining game of the BCS Bowl season, but if I’m one of these one-loss alleged studs that was in Championship contention a few weeks ago, I’m ticked that I don’t get to show up to my game half hung-over and without practice to beat the tar out of NIU.

3. If I’m Notre Dame I think I would have preferred being snubbed by the BCS than having to face Alabama. I’d rather complain to a sympathetic media core and the Vatican than get embarrassed. If Alabama plays the way I know they are capable of and ND plays the way I think they will, then Irish football could be set back 10 years to a time in which they still get a lot of hype from the media and have every game on TV but will not actually be very good at football. Wait. That’s where Notre Dame football currently is.

2. Iowa got screwed. Yes, the Hawkeyes finished the season 4-8, but they won more games against BCS Conference opposition than Northern Illinois, and if they belonged to the Leaders Division of the Big Ten, where Ohio State and Penn State do immoral things that remove them from Championship contention, who knows what might have happened. They could have been Wisconsin. I mean the Hawkeyes beat Michigan State in East Lansing (the Spartans beat Wisconsin in Madison).

1. Oh also, Iowa beat Northern Illinois. You know, the team that plays in the MAC. You know, the worst conference in America. But Northern Illinois did beat Army (2-9 record) by a score of 41-40 and the Huskies took down Kansas (1-11 record, 0-9 in Big 12) by seven points – so the rest of their out-of-conference slate was pretty stout. Really, though. If you can outlast Kent State (the team that gave Kentucky its lone FBS win – by 33 points!) in double-overtime then you deserve to play in a BCS Bowl. Especially if that just happened a few days ago.

The BCS: Helping people forget about complaining about political elections since 1998.

That’s all I got/


Data Dump: Who’s Really Good and Who’s Really Bad? Let’s Get Nerdy With It!

I’ve been running some analysis this week using the following process:

  • Calculating FBS teams’ offensive and defensive points per game against other FBS competition.
  • Finding national averages in each of those figures.
  • Defining Offensive and Defensive Coefficients to each team that will “normalize” their offensive and defensive points per game to the national averages.
  • Using these Coefficients to Analyze games.


Here are some interesting tidbits regarding Conferences: 

  • Conference USA is the worst conference in the country according to pure offensive and defensive points per game statistics.  Of the 12 member institutions only two (UCF and Tulsa) have an offensive scoring average that is higher than their points allowed average.  In other words 10 of 12 Conference USA schools would lose their average game.  The ACC is the weakest “big” conference with only 5 of 12 teams outscoring opposition averages.
  • While we’re on the subject of conferences, the Big 12 fields the best offenses according to Offensive Coefficients.  A lower figure is good here as it represents an outperformance (a higher scoring average) relative to the national average.  With a league-wide average coefficient of 0.8997, the Big 12 is the only conference that as a whole scores more than average.  In layman’s terms: a Big 12 teams points scored need to be multiplied by 0.8997 to be brought down to the national average, every other conference needs to be brought up to hit the national average.
  • Defensively the SEC boasts the strongest figures in Defensive Coefficient where a high number is good.  Points scored against SEC defenses need to be multiplied by 1.3743 to be brought up to the national average.
  • If you subtract the Offensive Coefficient (a small number is good) from Defensive Coefficient (a big number is good) the strength of the SEC really shows through.  With a Differential Coefficient of 0.2860 the SEC is the strongest conference with the Big 12 coming in second a 0.1156.  The worst conference in America goes to the WAC with a Differential Coefficient of -0.1940.


On the team side of things here are some observations: 

  • Oregon has the nation’s best offense with a Coefficient of 0.5245.  In other words, the Ducks score almost twice the national average.  And to normalize their points relative to an opposing score their total should be multiplied by .5245.  That may sound confusing but think of it this way:  If Oregon is averaging almost 54 points per game (which they are) wouldn’t holding them to 35 points be a pretty good defensive effort?  Sure the national average is just over 28 points per game.  But relative to their season average 35 is a small number.  That 35 points would be the equivalent of about 18 points against an average offense (35 points * Oregon’s Offensive Coefficient of 0.5245).
  • Conversely UMass has the worst offense in the country with a Coefficient of 2.5237.  If UMass scored the national average (28 points) that would be the equivalent of an average team scoring 71 points (28 points * UMass’s Offensive Coefficient of 2.5237).
  • On the other side of the ball a larger Defensive Coefficientis better.  Alabama and Notre Dame are tied for the nation’s lead with a Coefficient of 2.5560.  In other words, a single point scored on the Irish or the Crimson Tide is the equivalent of 2.556 points score on an average defense.
  • Points scored against Colorado – the worst defense in the nation – are discredited to the value of 0.5751 points each against an average defense.


Since a high Defensive Coefficient is a good thing and a high Offensive Coefficient is a bad thing, subtracting the Offensive number from the Defensive number can give you a pretty decent picture of how a team is performing.

But, these numbers aren’t full-proof by themselves.  The most obvious flaw to this system (there are admittedly many) is the lack of accounting for difficulty of competition.  By adding each team’s respective Conference Differential Coefficient to the individual Differential Coefficients we can give credit to teams who play in tougher conferences and discredit teams who do not.  This is not fool-proof as every game is not a conference game but it does shore up the data.

This data yields a top10 as follows:

  1. Alabama
  2. Notre Dame
  3. Florida
  4. LSU
  5. Georgia
  6. FSU
  7. South Carolina
  8. Kansas State
  9. BYU*
  10. Rutgers
  11. Texas A&M

*BYU is a clear outlier here at 6-4.  However they’ve managed to somehow win some games by huge margins and lose four games by close margins.  This is a scheduling irregularity as it is the Cougar’s first year as an independent and thus no Conference Schedule weighting.


The Games

The real benefit to these Coefficients is “normalizing” individual games.  In other words, they can be cross-referenced with actual scores to say “If team A had played a team with the nation’s average offense and the nation’s average defense – instead of team B – the score would have been X to Y.”

Some high points in this data include:

  • Georgia’s 48-3 win over Vanderbilt (a respectable team with a stout defense and slightly below average offense) – if normalized – would have seen a final score of 83-3.
  • Notre Dame defeated Purdue early in the season by a score of 20-17.  Had Purdue boasted both an average defense and an average offense, the Irish would have suffered a 17-18 defeat.
  • Not surprisingly, Oregon takes the cake in the highest normalized point total thanks to their 62-51 win over USC.  If both offenses and defenses were normalized, the score of that game would have been 92-41.


What’s interesting is using the formulas to generate hypothetical scores in matchups.  If you divide Team A’s Points Per Game by Team B’s Defensive Coefficient and then Divide Team B’s Points Allowed Per Game by Team A’s Offensive Coefficient and average the two numbers you can generate an expected score for Team A.  Doing the opposite will generate a score for Team B.


So how about the Top five teams?  

If all five teams played each other here are the outcomes you would see:


  • Kansas State would go 1-3 with a 36-34 loss to Oregon, a 17-16 loss to Notre Dame and a 24-16 loss to Alabama.  The Wildcats would defeat Georgia 27-24.
  • Oregon would go 2-2.  The Ducks would beat Kansas State 36-34 and beat Georgia 36-30.  But the Ducks would lose to Notre Dame in a tight game (21.4 – 21.1 to be exact) and to Alabama by a score of 30-21.
  • Notre Dame would defeat Kansas State (17-16) and Oregon (21.4-21.1) by narrow margins and defeat Georgia 17-14.  But the Irish would lose to Alabama 15-10.
  • Alabama would go undefeated, beating K-State by 8, Oregon bu 9, Notre Dame by 5 and Georgia by 10.
  • Georgia would go 0-4.


But as I alluded to earlier in the week, all is not lost for Georgia.  These numbers represent season-long data.  Georgia is playing much better over the past three weeks.

Here is how each team has performed (Defensive Coefficient – Offensive Coefficient) in each of their last four games.  Here come the Bulldogs, baby.


That’s all I got/


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