Jake Fromm is the Worst Big-Game Quarterback at Georgia Since the Jim Donnan Era


I turned 31 last week. Tough pill to swallow. Every year I feel a little bit older, but the LSU game really aged me. You see, I’m old enough to remember when Georgia was a nationally relevant football program. I’m something of a dying breed in that regard.

Kirby Smart, so it seems, has ruined Georgia football. Even among his true peers – programs who have changed coaches recently – he looks bad. He’s lost to Ole Miss, Tennessee, Florida and now LSU in his incredibly brief tenure. Not exactly a murderer’s row of quality opposition.

Frankly, the state of Georgia football is so dire heading into the annual tilt with Florida in Jacksonville that I can’t in good conscience preview the game itself. We already know how that’s going to end up. In lieu of a preview and a prediction, here’s a step-back look at the season so far.

Over the next few days I’m going to power rank the worst parts of the 2018 Georgia Bulldogs. As a word of disclaimer, Kirby Smart is clearly the worst facet of this program. As such, you could list him in every single one of these spots. But these are the single components that have been most disappointing thus far. Yesterday, I addressed Georgia’s deficiencies in the running game and the team’s Special Teams woes. Now let’s discuss the Passing Game.


Because I’m such a nice, level-headed analyst I’m not going to mention how bad Jake Fromm was against LSU. I refuse to dwell on the fact that he completed 47% of his passes, threw twice as many INTs as TDs and got sacked eleventy squillion times. But I will focus on his season-long struggles.

Through seven games, Fromm is barely throwing for more than 200 yards per contest. Georgia has locked in a bowl bid (can’t wait to visit lovely Memphis, TN for the Liberty Bowl this December!), so Georgia will get 13 games this season. If he maintains his blistering pace for six more games, Fromm will pass for 2,617 yards this year—that’s 201.3 yards per start. If you’re disappointed in that tally coming from a guy who will end this season with 27 career starts, you should be. That’s worse than what Jacob Eason threw for on a per-start basis as a true freshman back in 2016. (As a reminder, Kirby ran Eason off in favor of Fromm.) This is Gresyon Lambert-level futility within the passing game. But maybe that shouldn’t surprise us. After all, Lambert threw for 300 yards in 13 starts (one time against South Carolina) as many times as Fromm has thrown for 300 yards in 21 starts.

Fromm wasn’t just bad in the most recent big game, he’s also bad at having big games. Consider recent full-time Georgia starting QBs and their affinity for 300-yard games.

 

Player Starts at Georgia 300-Yard Games Starts Per 300 Yarder
David Greene 51 8 6.4
D.J. Shockley 12 2 6.0
Matthew Stafford 37 3 12.3
Joe Cox 13 1 13
Aaron Murray 52 10 5.2
Hutson Mason 15 2 7.5
Greyson Lambert 13 1 13.0
Jacob Eason 14 2 7.0
Jake Fromm 21 1 21.0

 

By these measures, Fromm is the worst full-time starting quarterback at Georgia since the Jim Donnan Era. Way to go, Kirby!

 

Until next time,

 

The Kirby Smart Hater

Georgia Football: Special Teams Play Has Taken a HUGE Step Back and Could Cost the Dawgs in Jacksonville


I turned 31 last week. Tough pill to swallow. Every year I feel a little bit older, but the LSU game really aged me. You see, I’m old enough to remember when Georgia was a nationally relevant football program. I’m something of a dying breed in that regard.

Kirby Smart, so it seems, has ruined Georgia football. Even among his true peers – programs who have changed coaches recently – he looks bad. He’s lost to Ole Miss, Tennessee, Florida and now LSU in his incredibly brief tenure. Not exactly a murderer’s row of quality opposition.

Frankly, the state of Georgia football is so dire heading into the annual tilt with Florida in Jacksonville that I can’t in good conscience preview the game itself. We already know how that’s going to end up. In lieu of a preview and a prediction, here’s a step-back look at the season so far.

Over the next few days I’m going to power rank the worst parts of the 2018 Georgia Bulldogs. As a word of disclaimer, Kirby Smart is clearly the worst facet of this program. As such, you could list him in every single one of these spots. But these are the single components that have been most disappointing thus far. Earlier today, I addressed Georgia’s deficiencies in the running game. Now, let’s address Special Teams woes. 


Rodrigo Blankenship went from superstar to bust awfully quickly, didn’t he?

He’s missed more field goals than the rest of the team combined and is on pace to drastically under-perform his stellar 2017 campaign. Hot Rod averaged one field goal miss for every five games played a year ago. He’s missed twice in just seven games this year. Not only that, but he’s taken a decisive step backwards on mid-range kicks. As a freshman, he connected on 75% of field goals from 30-39 yards away. Last year, he was 100% (a perfect 6 for 6) from that distance. This year, he’s hitting just 50%.

Georgia has taken a step back in punting as well and as a result the Dawgs are officially worse at all special teams activities except punt returns.

Category 2017 National Rank 2018 National Rank
Field Goals Made 10 24
Field Goals Percentage 8 25
Punting Gross Average 12 63
Punting Net Average 9 85
Kickoff Return Average 20 43
Punt Return Average 31 11

 

If you don’t think this stuff matters, then you must be Kirby Smart. Don’t be surprised if Georgia loses another contest because of Special Teams.

 

Until next time,

 

The Kirby Smart Hater

Georgia’s Running Game is an Embarrassment


I turned 31 last week. Tough pill to swallow. Every year I feel a little bit older, but the LSU game really aged me. You see, I’m old enough to remember when Georgia was a nationally relevant football program. I’m something of a dying breed in that regard.

Kirby Smart, so it seems, has ruined Georgia football. Even among his true peers – programs who have changed coaches recently – he looks bad. He’s lost to Ole Miss, Tennessee, Florida and now LSU in his incredibly brief tenure. Not exactly a murderer’s row of quality opposition.

Frankly, the state of Georgia football is so dire heading into the annual tilt with Florida in Jacksonville that I can’t in good conscience preview the game itself. We already know how that’s going to end up. In lieu of a preview and a prediction, here’s a step-back look at the season so far.

Over the next few days I’m going to power rank the worst parts of the 2018 Georgia Bulldogs. As a word of disclaimer, Kirby Smart is clearly the worst facet of this program. As such, you could list him in every single one of these spots. But these are the single components that have been most disappointing thus far. Today, I’ll start with the running game.


Heading into the season, we knew the running game might need some fine-tuning. One doesn’t simply “replace” Nick Chubb and Sony Michel. Those guys don’t grow on trees. And they apparently don’t grow on Georgia’s roster either.

Last year, Georgia led the Southeastern Conference with 3,876 rushing yards (no other school was within 375 yards of that total). Currently, Georgia doesn’t even lead Georgia in rushing yards. Seriously, the Bulldogs trail both Georgia Tech and Georgia Southern in rushing yards. Tech’s racked up 2,476 yards on the ground; Georgia Southern sits at 1,929; UGA is at 1,584. Within the SEC, Georgia trails Alabama (1,735), Mississippi State (1,645) and Kentucky (1,621). Among the national powerhouses with stronger running games than Georgia: Every service academy (Army, Navy and Air Force), Coastal Carolina, Western Michigan, Cincinnati, Troy, UNLV, Louisiana-Lafayette and UAB.

What in the name of Herschel is going on? Honestly, I’m not sure. Neither is Kirby Smart, apparently, because he has no idea who to run. The Bulldogs are averaging 5.8 yards per attempt, which is a halfway-decent total. Part of the problem, however, is the Dawgs’ refusal to give the ball to the most talented runners on the team. Elijah Holyfield is having an okay-ish season and has racked up 7.5 yards per attempt, but four runners have averaged more yards per attempt than Holyfield. Unfortunately, those four runners have been given just 28 carries. Georgia is running the ball with the wrong people.

Player Carries This Year Yards Per Attempt Appropriately Used?
D’Andre Swift 71 5.1 Way too many carries
Elijah Holyfield 65 7.5 Too many carries
Brian Herrien 30 5.9 Way too many carries
James Cook 30 5.5 Too many carries
Justin Fields 18 7.6 Not enough carries
Mecole Hardman 4 9.0 Not enough carries
Demetris Robertson 3 32.3 Not enough carries
Tyler Simmons 3 26.7 Not enough Carries

 

If Georgia gave the most carries (Swift’s 71) to its best runner (Demetris Robertson) and so on and so forth, the totals above would look like this:

 

Player Revised Carries Yards Per Attempt Total Yards
Demetris Robertson 71 32.3 2,293
Tyler Simmons 65 26.7 1,736
Mecole Hardman 30 9.0 270
Justin Fields 30 7.6 228
Elijah Holyfield 18 7.5 135
Brian Herrien 4 5.9 24
James Cook 3 5.5 17
D’Andre Swift 3 5.1 15

 

Georgia has left nearly 3,200 yards on the table (3.176) by not appropriately allocating carries. That may not seem like a lot to Kirby Smart, but an extra 454 rushing yards per contest would be really helpful if you’re trying to win football games.

At the end of the day, that comes down to coaching.

 

Until next time,

 

The Kirby Smart Hater

DudeYouCrazy Top 25 – September 25: Kentucky to Replace Georgia in the Playoff?


Here is this week’s poll. As a reminder, this is based on resume and projected resume only. Only teams featured in the AP Top 25 poll are counted and ordered. This week, I’m splitting into the following pods:

  1. The Established Monsters: Undefeated Teams with 2+ Wins vs. Ranked Foes
  2. The Emerging Monsters: Undefeated Teams with 1 Win vs. a Ranked Foe
  3. Texas: Texas
  4. The Unknown Potentials: Undefeated Teams with No Ranked Wins
  5. The Yeah-Sures: Teams with Losses

THE ESTABLISHED MONSTERS: UNDEFEATED TEAMS WITH 2+ RANKED WINS

1. LSU (Previous Rank: 1)

LSU’s resume looks stronger on the top-end than it did a week ago. Miami and Auburn continue to take care of business outside of losses to LSU and both teams were steady in my poll. October 13th will be a separation game one way or the other against Georgia.

2. Stanford (Previous Rank: 5)

Ugly and unlikely as it may have been, Stanford won against Oregon to pick up its second win over a ranked foe this year. If the Cardinal gets past Notre Dame this weekend it will claim my poll’s top spot next week.

3. Kentucky (Previous Rank: Not Ranked)

Welcome to the show, Wildcats. Quietly two teams have emerged as actual contenders out of seemingly nowhere: Kentucky and Texas. We’ll get to the Longhorns later, but for now Kentucky’s two wins over ranked opponents and no losses puts Mark Stoops’ squad in truly elite company.


THE EMERGING MONSTERS: UNDEFEATED TEAMS WITH 1 RANKED WIN

4. Georgia (Previous Rank: 3)

Georgia isn’t downgraded here for an ugly (albeit, 14-point) win at Mizzou. But the Dawgs don’t have two ranked wins. I still think the win at South Carolina was better than anything the rest of this tier has done though.

5. Ohio State (Previous Rank: 2)

Stanford and UK leapfrogged Ohio State on account of now having two ranked wins (vs. the Buckeyes’ 1). Georgia made a move up because the TCU win is now less impressive.

6. Notre Dame (Previous Rank: 6)

No change here for the Irish. A win vs. Stanford this week means a big move up though.

7. Alabama Previous Rank: 8)

Bama finally got a win over a ranked opponent in Texas A&M but it wasn’t enough for a huge needle swing.


TEXAS: TEXAS

8. Texas (Previous Rank: Not Ranked)

Texas has one of the ugliest losses of any top 25 team (season-opener to Maryland), but the Longhorns are 2-0 vs. the Top 25 thanks to wins over USC and TCU. Ultimately, I view this as two positives and one negative and that’s better than the host of teams with no positives in the form of wins over ranked foes.


THE UNKNOWN POTENTIALS: UNDEFEATED TEAMS WITH NO TOP 25 WINS

Honestly, it’s tough to differentiate these teams so let’s just list ’em off:

9. Oklahoma (Previous Rank: 9)

10. West Virginia (Previous Rank: 10)

11. Penn State (Previous Rank: 11)

12. Clemson (Previous Rank: 15)

13. UCF (Previous Rank: 16)

14. Duke (Previous Rank: Not Ranked)

15. California (Previous Rank: Not Ranked)


THE YEAH-SURES: TEAMS WITH LOSSES

16. Auburn (Previous Rank: 17)

The loss to LSU is still the “best” loss in the country and the win over Washington is one of the best wins this category can claim.

17. BYU (Previous Rank: 18)

BYU handed out what has arguably been the ugliest loss of the year two weeks ago against Wisconsin. That counts for something.

18. Texas Tech (Previous Rank: Not Ranked)

I guess we just forget about the season-opening loss to Ole Miss?

19. Oregon (Previous Rank: 14)

The Ducks should be sitting in the top 4, but the Stanford game escaped. Either way, they’re still in a good spot if they can put it back together with only two ranked opponents remaining.

20. Miami (Previous Rank: 20)

Tough to move up from the bottom of the Top 25 when you have a slew of unranked teams (Texas Tech, Cal, Duke, Texas, Kentucky) moving in.

21. Washington (Previous Rank: 21)

UW could and should make a statement this week vs. BYU. But they need to put somebody away at some point.

22. Michigan (Previous Rank: 22)

Yeah.

23. Wisconsin (Previous Rank: 24)

More yeah.

24. Mississippi State (Previous Rank: 12)

LOLOLOL

25. Michigan State (Previous Rank: 25)

This team is butt.

 

 

That’s all I got/

Andrew

 

 

College Football Playoff Projections: Can Georgia Get In?


I released my Top 25 yesterday, so what’s it imply about the playoff?

First, I think there are ultimately 21 contenders. The clear-cut group comes from the undefeateds:

  1. LSU
  2. Ohio State
  3. Georgia
  4. Oklahoma State
  5. Stanford
  6. Notre Dame
  7. Virginia Tech
  8. Alabama
  9. Oklahoma
  10. West Virginia
  11. Penn State
  12. Mississippi State
  13. Boston College
  14. Oregon
  15. Clemson

I also think these schools have a shot with some help:

  • Auburn – Winning out may be enough to win the SEC West.
  • BYU – Winning out with two Top 10 Wins (Wisconsin, Washington) and another Top 25 Wins (Boise State) does it.
  • Texas A&M – All we know at this point is A&M isn’t better than Clemson. So there’s a shot.
  • Miami – Can still win the ACC.
  • Michigan – Can still win the Big Ten.
  • TCU – Needs to leapfrog three Big 12 schools, but that’s no more unlikely than Auburn’s odds.

I think Wisconsin and Michigan State are out on account of awful losses. I think UCF is out because of its schedule. There are a slew of undefeated schools lurking outside of the Top 25 that could make moves. I’m thinking specifically of Cal (3-0 start with a win over BYU) and Mizzou (undefeated entering admittedly weak SEC East play).

DYC Poll Implied Playoff:

Right now the top four seeds are:

  1. LSU – LSU has two Top 10 wins away from home. When will someone else be able to say that? It could be a while. The Tigers’ schedule is brutal but they’ve done everything you could ask of them thus far.
  2. Ohio State – I think LSU may have the two best wins in the country. Ohio State’s win over TCU may be the third-best. Michigan State and Michigan do not appear to be what some expected (both languishing at the bottom of every Top 25 poll), and Wisconsin seems conquerable yet again if the Badgers represent the other division in the Big Ten title. So Ohio State needs to do two thing: 1. Beat Penn State and 2. Not step on its own manhood along the way (against one of the Michigan schools or anyone else). That’s probably the most straight-forward and navigable to-do list of any contender.
  3. Georgia – The Bulldogs should enter a date with LSU undefeated and if the Tigers do the same (equally likely), the Dawgs will get real points for that win. It’s hard to see Kirby’s team missing the SEC Championship and I think they have a one-game window of grace (be it a loss to Auburn in the regular season or a loss in the conference championship game).
  4. Oklahoma State – The Big 12 is wide open but the Cowboys looked more impressive than Oklahoma (narrow win vs. Iowa State) and TCU (loss to Ohio State) this past weekend and have earned the right to be the Big 12’s representative. What changes that? Well, losing to a combination of TCU, Oklahoma and West Virginia. Or, a rally by another conference. Put bluntly: If Stanford beats Oregon next week, they’ll be in this spot.

 

DYC Adjusted Playoff Projection:

  1. Alabama – As strong as LSU has looked, the Tiger hype has mostly been built upon scheduling. Alabama would be 3-0 by much wider margins against the LSU schedule. Alabama looks as good as ever at this juncture.
  2. Ohio State – All of the above applies.
  3. Oklahoma State – I think the Big 12 is wide open and I’ve been wrong about Oklahoma so far this year, but I think some folks were wrong about OK State too. Thus far, they look every bit as deserving of a playoff spot as the Sooners.
  4. Georgia – Again, LSU has looked strong but I don’t feel any differently about Georgia’s trip to Baton Rouge than when the season began. I just think Georgia will get a hell of a lot more credit for the win.

 

That’s all I got/

Andrew

 

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