Category Archives: The UGA Vault
Alas my week-long suspension has come and gone and none of you even missed me. I’m back now, but just to let you all do the talking.
The UGA Vault is running a “12 Days of Christmas” series right now and for day 10 (today) they ranked the 10 greatest Bulldogs of all time.
10. Aaron Murray
9. David Greene
8. Jake Scott
7. Champ Bailey
6. Kevin Butler
5. Fran Tarkenton
4. David Pollack
3. Charlie Trippi
2. Frank Sinkwich
1. Herschel Walker
So what do you think? Agree? Disagree? Love it? Hate it?
That’s all I got/
The job is Jacob Eason’s if he wants it. Not just the job of QB1. It looks like Eason could be the O.C. next year.
Or I could be. Or you could be. At this point, anything is possible.
Have a nice weekend.
That’s all I got/
Download The UGA Vault for exclusive Georgia highlights, interviews, condensed games and more. The UGA Vault is now FREE on iOS and Android.
Dan Mullen is not Mark Richt. Let’s get this out of the way. He’s not Mark Richt in a thousand ways—and that’s not a good thing or a bad thing in and of itself. But he’s especially not Mark Richt as it relates to the narrative of losing to too many good teams. He’s not Mark Richt, because Mississippi State is not Georgia and it never will be.
When looking at Mullen’s track record at Mississippi State relative to Richt’s performance over the same time period (2009-Present), Richt wins every time:
|Overall Winning %||60.67%||68.48%|
|SEC Winning %||46.43%||63.79%|
|Top 25 Winning %||15.15%||32.26%|
But that isn’t a fair comparison.
First and foremost, let’s consider Mullen’s talent at Mississippi State relative to Richt’s talent at Georgia. To do this, I looked at two samples of similar data:
- Trailing 4-Year Period of Recruiting Class Ranking
- Trailing 4-Year Period of Recruiting Class Player Rating
I drew both of these numbers from 247Sports.
At worst during this time period, Richt’s Georgia teams boasted an average 4-year national ranking of 9.25. At best (right now), Mullen’s teams ranked out at 25 nationally.
And on an individual player-by-player basis, Mississippi State has a decisive disadvantage as well.
The gap is as narrow as it has ever been right now, which is a testament to what Mullen has done in Starkville. But for context, the gap between where Georgia currently stands (90.11) and where Mississippi State is (85.93) is a gap of 4.18 points. That’s about the difference between landing Jacob Eason and landing 4-star quarterback Jack Allison, a Miami commit. Tell me those points don’t matter when that gap applies to 25 or 30 guys in each class. The only way you can do that is if you throw out ratings and rankings altogether.
Also working against Mullen is the strength of the SEC West. Mullen has won fewer than 50 percent of his contests in SEC play while over the past seven seasons Richt won nearly 64%. Some of that, possibly a large portion, is due to a talent differential. More still is due to a much stronger SEC West.
Over this time period, SEC West teams have finished ranked in the Top 10 (by the coaches poll) on 12 different occasions. That’s happened nine times in the east. On 17 occasions, West teams have finished in the top 15. In the east, that number stands at 11. On 22 occasions West teams have finished ranked in the Top 20. In the east, the figure is 13. On 25 occasions, West teams have finished ranked in the Top 25. In the east, the number is 15.
And Mullen has also surpassed expectations quite often (based on preseason and post-season polling). Twice over this time period Mullen has risen from unranked in the preseason to a Top 25 finish. Only once has he declined in ranking from the beginning of the season to the final poll. Richt, meanwhile has also risen in the rankings several times (three times – 2014, 2012 and 2011) but he’s fallen from ranked in the preseason to unranked in each of the other four years of this sample.
And the common-opponent theory lends itself to Mississippi State as a better performer against head-to-head opposition.
Since 2009, Georgia and Mississippi State have shared 30 common opponents. Against those opponents, Mississippi State has performed better than Georgia (as measured by point differential relative to opposition) on 16 different occasions. Twice the two teams performed identically – a pair of seven-point losses to Arkansas in 2010 and a pair of seven-point wins over Kentucky in 2010. Georgia performed better than Mississippi State 12 times. And I think it’s worth noting, that Mississippi State out-performed Georgia against all four common opponents in 2015:
|Opponent||MSU Result||UGA Result||Advantage|
|Auburn||17-9 Win||20-13 Win||MSU|
|Alabama||31-6 Loss||10-38 Loss||MSU|
|Kentucky||42-16 Win||27-3 Win||MSU|
|Missouri||31-13 Win||9-6 Win||MSU|
So don’t say that Dan Mullen is Mark Richt. Against a common pool of opponents, one could argue he was better. And you’d be crazy not to recognize the talent gap and the disadvantage of the SEC West.
And I’ll close by saying that Mullen won’t use the talent gap as an excuse. He’s upped Mississippi State’s recruiting profile significantly. Their trailing four-year recruit rating has improved every single year since he arrived.
To be clear: I’m not saying Dan Mullen is a better coach than Mark Richt. I am, however, saying that the data suggests he has out-performed the talent on hand (while simultaneously increasing the talent on hand) in Starkville. If the same could be empirically said for Richt, he’d still be the head coach in Athens.
I don’t know that Dan Mullen is the answer in Athens—in fact, I highly doubt he’ll get the call. But don’t scoff at the mention of his name. He’s done a lot with very little.
That’s all I got/
Tom Herman has agreed in principle to a deal with the Houston Cougars per Tom Herman himself.
That means a few things:
- He’s not coming to Georgia.
- He was never offered by Georgia.
I would have liked to see those conversations between Georgia and Herman take place, but this further cements (in my opinion) the notion that Georgia is going after one guy and one guy only. And given that, it has to be Kirby Smart. Sources are trickling down to support that notion and it’s not remotely surprising.
What could become interesting, however, is who Smart brings with him to fill out his staff and how much those pieces get paid. Let’s face it, if this is as it seems…there is no number two. Kirby has all the leverage for himself and the staff and Greg McGarity can not afford to screw this up. That could result in an All-Star cast of assistant coaches and coordinators. Or it could result in a slew of folks getting paid too much money.
That’s all I got/
Re-live the Mark Richt Era with The UGA Vault – now FREE on iOS and Android.
So, how was your Sunday?
We’ll get to the news of the day later on, but first let’s talk about the
big medium win over Tech. Despite the protestations of some on this here site, I stand by Hall and I’s assertion over the years that this is not a rivalry. Part of me realized this when toe met leather, and I realized I had watched exactly zero plays of this Jackets team all season. No matter what the #THWG crowd will tell you, this is the story of big brother reminding little brother of their place, 13 of the last 15 seasons. The Tech game is an annual pantsing that occasionally goes wrong. This year it went right, as it so often does.
– Frisky passing game? FRISKY PASSING GAME. Sure, these aren’t the numbers that forced UGA fans to lie to themselves about the ability under center after week 3, but the passing attack acquitted itself nicely Saturday. A great day out of Terry Godwin should give all of us hope about returning talent on the outside. Special shout out to Malcolm Mitchell, who continues to be a joy to watch catching and blocking. He’ll be a great value pick for someone looking for a solid WR on Sundays.
– Aggressive running attack? Check. Sony Michel and Keith Marshall looked confident, smart, and solid all day. With Sony cracking the 1000 yard barrier, he and returning Nick Chubb next year will be continuing the tradition of tailback U in Athens.
– Dominant defense? Mah gawd, you wouldn’t think we only won by 6 the way Pruitt’s boys played all day Saturday. They kept the Tech ‘quarterback’ under duress and running for his life, and stifled the vaunted
high school offense rushing attack all day.
– This was the perfect picture of an 80-20 offense; great for 80 yards, downright putrid in the red zone. Opportunities to score are usually few and far between, but the players put themselves in position to be successful, and I think everyone – coaches, players, water boys – caught a slight case of the lemon booty when it came time to score points.
– Speaking of lemon booty, Marshall Morgan, what happened man? Ever since the boating…incident last year, Mr. Automatic has turned into Mr. Maybe. Make no mistake, I’m going to miss watching him line up to boot them through the uprights. But I will not miss the last two years of misses.
– There’s quitting on a coach and then there’s whatever is happening at Tech. I haven’t watched them all year, but all I’ve heard from my Tech fan friends and my Tech football alumni friends, getting rid of PJ is the number one concern for Tech faithful going forward. Not a good scene.
There’s much already written, and much to be written, about the recent vacancy at the head job at UGA. I’ll say this before adding much more than my 2 cents tomorrow:
I tell you what if UGA went 3-9 they’d fire the governor. #LOLTech
— DPalm (@dpalm66) November 28, 2015
twice (THRICE!) in a row makes it a tradition right? Well, allow me to indulge myself with my annual tip of the cap to the Columbia Football Class of 2007. We got the chance to end our careers at home with a win, and the next week, we all hung up the pads after beating Brown on a last second field goal. I know that no one else cares, but as long as Andrew (Chad now, I guess) lets me write for this site, I’m gonna care loudly at least once a year.
Go Dawgs, and Roar Lion Roar.
Love this? Hate it? Think I’m an idiot? Don’t just curse at me under your breath, head to the Dude You Podcast iTunes page, and leave a 5-star review to make sure I know it, and have your voice heard on the air. Follow me at @dpalm66.