Category Archives: Auburn

Georgia Football: It is a Travesty that Auburn’s Defensive Coordinator is Up for the Broyles Award and Georgia’s Mel Tucker Isn’t


Photo via Online Athens.

 

I wrote at length about this last week, but here’s an update. Ignore for a moment who should win the award, because it’s completely arbitrary. But consider the comparison between Kevin Steele (Auburn’s Defensive Coordinator and a Broyles Award Finalist) and Mel Tucker (Georgia’s Defensive Coordinator), and tell me why Tucker isn’t a finalist. Note that these statistics are updated through Saturday’s beat down of Auburn.

Category Georgia (National Rank) Auburn (National Rank)
Point Allowed Per Game 13.2 (4) 17.3 (10)
Yards Allowed Per Game 271 (4) 312 (14)
Passing Yards Allowed Per Game 158.3 (2) 177.8 (8)
Rushing Yards Allowed Per Game 112.6 (12) 134.5 (32)
Average National Rank 5.5 16

 

There is not a single major statistical category in which Auburn’s defense is as good or better than Georgia’s.

If we adjust for the quality of offenses faced, things are just as lopsided in Georgia’s favor.

Georgia played 12 FBS opponents (which includes Auburn twice). Those 12 opponents posted season-long scoring averages of 29.45 points per game. So, Georgia’s 13.2 points allowed per game represents just 44.8% of opponents’ scoring average. In simple terms: Teams scored less than half of their season averages against Georgia..

Auburn also played 12 FBS teams (which includes Georgia twice). This set of 12 opponents posted season-long scoring averages of 32.60 points per game. Therefore, Auburn’s 17.3 points allowed per game reflects 53.1% of opponents’ scoring average. In simple terms: Teams scored more than half of their season averages against Auburn.

What does this actually mean? Well, the national FBS scoring average this year is 28.785. If Georgia allows 44.8% of opponents’ scoring average and Auburn allows 53.1% of opponents’ scoring average and both teams played a truly average (28.785 points per game) team, Georgia would allow 12.9 points and Auburn would allow 15.3. Which defensive coordinator is better by that measure? Do you want to allow more points or fewer? According to the Broyles Award, more points allowed is better.

The butt-kicking continues on a yards basis.

This year, Georgia’s opponents have posted an average season-long per-game yard tally of 399.5. Against the Dawgs, however, they’re only getting 271 yards per game. So, Georgia is holding opposing offenses to 67.8% of their season-long averages.

Auburn’s opponents have averaged a total of 428.3 yards over the course of their entire seasons. Against Auburn, though, these teams are just gaining 312 yards per game. Auburn is holding opposing offenses to 72.8% of their season-long averages.

Again, Georgia is doing better than Auburn on an opponent-adjusted basis, but what does this look like practically? The national yards per game average is 403.992. If Georgia played an average offense and allowed 67.8% of the expected yards gained (which is Georgia’s average so far this year), the Dawgs would give up 273.9 yards. If Auburn allowed its 72.8% average, the Tigers would give up 294.1 yards. Again, Georgia holds the edge here.

So how about common opponents? Georgia and Auburn both played Missouri and Mississippi State. Georgia held Mississippi State to fewer points than Auburn did but gave up more points to Mizzou, so that’s a split. Georgia held both Mississippi State and Missouri to fewer yards. So Georgia checked three of four boxes there.

It is a CRIME that Mel Tucker is not up for this award.

 

That’s all I got/

Andrew

 

 

Fixing College Football, Part I of ?: Doing Away With Divisions


Divisions in Power 5 conferences are stupid. There, I said it.

At a time where revenues are such that all away games, with few exceptions, call for chartered flights, I don’t buy the monetary concern. When preserving the ‘sanctity’ of a Georgia/Kentucky or Mississippi State/LSU rivalry, I don’t care. And following another season similar to the last few, where:

  • The SEC East is a complete dumpster fire, where 5 West teams could have easily won it.
  • Clemson and Florida State carry the crown for the ACC and play in the same division.
  • Ohio State, Michigan, and Penn State (and Michigan State, until 2016) play in the same division because of geography, and THAT’S A BETTER SYSTEM THAN THE ONE THEY HAD IN PLACE!

I’m adapting from a model Bill Connelly posited on SBNation this summer, because its a fascinating thought exercise, and it makes too much sense. In it:

  • The Pac-12, with divisions and a 9-game schedule, is fine for now.
  • The Big XII, jumbled mess as it is, has a round-robin (and a conference championship game starting next year, because SPORTS).

For the three fourteen-team conferences, division play doesn’t work. Unless you look forward to Georgia’s FIRST trip to conference rival Texas A&M during the end of Trump’s second term. Or your next trip to the Grove in 2029.

I’m not down for that. I’m not down for watching the Missouris and Floridas of the world get PASTED in the SEC Championship. I (Bill C first) want the following: keep an eight-game schedule, with three annual rivals and a rotation through the other 10 teams on a semiannual basis. Meaning, instead of going Mark Richt’s whole tenure before playing an SEC West opponent twice, you play a home-and-home with everyone every four years.

I’ll workshop this for all 42 teams involved below, but an example of what this would look like for Georgia:

Primary rivals: Auburn, Florida, South Carolina

Year 1: Alabama, at Kentucky, Ole Miss, at Missouri, Vanderbilt
Year 2: at Arkansas, LSU, at Mississippi State, Tennessee, at Texas A&M

Done in four-year cycles, one could even adapt years 3 and 4 from the first two to account for random shifts in competitive balance. Perhaps pair off each team for their non-rivals, so Kentucky doesn’t draw Alabama and Auburn, Mizzou doesn’t draw Georgia and Florida, etc.

This is the best I could come up with from a “PRESERVE OUR RIVALRIES!” perspective (and this may match Connelly verbatim, but I’m not checking):

Team Rival Rival Rival
Alabama Auburn Tennessee Ole Miss
Arkansas Mizzou Texas A&M LSU
Auburn Alabama Georgia Miss State
Florida Georgia Tennessee South Carolina
Georgia Florida Auburn South Carolina
Kentucky Missouri Vanderbilt South Carolina
LSU Texas A&M Miss State Arkansas
Mississippi Miss State Vanderbilt Alabama
Mississippi State Ole Miss LSU Auburn
Missouri Arkansas Kentucky Texas A&M
South Carolina Georgia Florida Kentucky
Tennessee Vanderbilt Florida Alabama
Texas A&M LSU Arkansas Mizzou
Vanderbilt Tennessee Kentucky Ole Miss

Some thoughts: South Carolina and Kentucky were SUPER hard to place. Kentucky gets, from a historical perspective, the easiest three games of anyone. Off the top of my head, there are no major rivalries that go unprotected, with the exception of Alabama/LSU (a more recent one, anyway).

The biggest misses? Tennessee/Kentucky, as Kentucky gets screwed out of the one game they get really worked up about. Bama/LSU, obviously.

I’d give myself a 10/10 for this. A&M, Arkansas, Mizzou, and LSU all preserve their regional rivalries. South Carolina, Tennessee, Georgia, and Florida all keep many of theirs. Vanderbilt/Ole Miss in the Khaki Bowl is still an annual event. Bama maintains history with Tennessee and Ole Miss, in addition to (obviously) Auburn.

If you don’t care about the ACC, you can stop reading now. Tried to draw it up there as well, but it is MUCH harder with the four North Carolina schools and the ‘old vs. new’ mentality that persists behind the scenes:

Team Rival Rival Rival
Boston College Syracuse Pitt Clemson
Clemson Georgia Tech N.C. State BC
Duke North Carolina Wake Forest Louisville
Florida State Miami Wake Forest N.C. State
Georgia Tech Clemson Miami Virginia
Louisville Pitt Virginia Tech Duke
Miami Florida St. Georgia Tech Syracuse
North Carolina Duke N.C. State Virginia
N.C. State North Carolina Clemson Florida State
Pitt Louisville BC Syracuse
Syracuse BC Miami Pitt
Virginia Virginia Tech North Carolina Georgia Tech
Virginia Tech Virginia Louisville Wake Forest
Wake Forest Duke Florida State Virginia Tech

This was friggin’ impossible. So many games that don’t make sense, especially for the Florida schools and the Northern schools, who would indubitably want games in the fertile Florida recruiting grounds.

Competitive balance, as it stands now, is a problem. N.C. State gets hosed, while UNC, Virginia Tech, and Pitt get relatively easy runs. I thought I’d be able to place Miami with more than one old Big East rival, but no dice.

For the B1G, I quit because I don’t care. But they need it worse than anyone else.

What do you think? Should we do away with divisions in order to make the conference feel like a conference again? Did I blow it on any rivalries?

 

 

 

Lane Kiffin Will be Back in the SEC by 2019. Let’s Handicap Where He Goes.


Let’s go into a time capsule. The 2018 SEC regular season has just wrapped up, the current cycle of ‘new’ head coaches in the league have either established themselves or failed miserably, and there’ll be one name on the market that exceeds all others: 44-year old FAU head coach Lane Kiffin.

Kiffin, in southern Florida head coaching purgatory, has led the Owls to…something better than their 3-9 records of 2014-16, and has overachieved in recruiting even while going against Butch Davis, Charlie Strong, and Scott Frost for third-tier Florida recruits. Having spent three years in the Nick Saban school for coaches who can’t coach good and want to learn to do other stuff good too, he’s got the stink of failed stints in Oakland, Knoxville, and Los Angeles pretty much worn off, and will be sold to an SEC fanbase with a write-up stating something like the following:

Kiffin, 44, has matured from early failed coaching opportunities, as he rehabilitated his image leading Alabama’s offense to heights unseen under Nick Saban. At FAU, he has gone 15-11 with a Bahamas Bowl victory and an average recruiting class ranking in the 60’s, unheard of for the Owls.

This is a home run hire for (insert SEC team) no doubt, as he is young, experienced, a dynamic recruiter, and an offensive genius. Expect (insert SEC team) to see immediate results in recruiting and become a more compelling team on the field from day 1.

The fun part of this thought exercise? Its feasible that he could end up at literally ANY SEC program. Hires of Will Muschamp (twice), Jim McIlwain, and Kirby Smart are obvious indications that ANY ties to Alabama are worth their weight in Nick Saban-bronze statues to SEC AD’s.

Auburn (4:1): Leading off with the most obnoxious little brother-syndrome fanbase seems an obvious pick, and this timeline works perfectly. Gus Malzahn bought himself another year with a resurgent two months in 2016– but has no quarterbacks in the pipeline, so patience should be running pretty thin by this time next year. A slow start in 2018 and he’s toast.

In Kiffin, Auburn is tangentially, but not directly, tied to Saban after Kiffin’s departure. The hype around his ability to find a QB and playmakers will resonate on the plains, and Prince Lane returns to Alabama to restore the glory of the Auburn Tigers.

Ole Miss (5:1): Hugh Freeze may not survive this offseason, and that’s the only justification I have for putting the odds that low. Shea Patterson is on a three-year plan to leave Oxford (not gonna happen) and Kiffin will be seen as the savior who can right Patterson’s career. And the NCAA mess Freeze will inevitably leave behind.

LSU (8:1): Coach O has a low buyout, no quarterback, and no success as a full-time head coach.

I’d say his leash is about two years.

Kiffin fulfills his destiny, after being rumored to be O’s choice for OC this offseason.

Florida (10:1): Bolstered, no doubt, by his presence in the state, Kiffin will steal one under-the-radar recruit from the Gators and make him his offensive bellcow– putting up 90 catches for 1,400 yards in 2018 while Florida’s offense continues to be among the worst in the country.

Even on the heels of back-to-back SEC East titles, McIlwain has done nothing to show he’s a long-term fit in Gainesville. He was linked to the Oregon job this offseason, and seems savvy enough to pull the “I’m gonna be fired in a year, so let me get a new contract now” move of Houston Nutt and others before him.

McIlwain was an offensive hire, but the Gators have maintained their strong defenses from the Muschamp era…and the offense is still broken.

Kiffin with Florida talent! Unbelievable hire!

Arkansas (13:1): My thought is that, after two years of success at FAU, this won’t be sexy enough for Lane. If he peels back the curtains for a minute though, he’ll see that there is no sexier job in CFB. His two predecessors:

  • Bobby Petrino, motorcycle accident with a young staffer. (8/10 sexy rating)
  • Bret Bieliema, of “borderline erotic” fame. (8/10 sexy rating)

Bieliema has low-key sucked at Arkansas, overall, and his window to break through is probably the best fit for this timeline.

Alabama (15:1): Someday sooner than we realize, Nick Saban will retire or move on. Why not after his fourth-straight national championship? Steve Sarkisian will still have too many alcohol-related red flags to make the jump. Jeremy Pruitt is too unstable a human.

Why not keep Saban’s coordinators in place and rehire his right-hand man?

 

Georgia (25:1): (*note: this won’t happen with Greg McGarity at AD, and they likely won’t fire a “Georgia man” after three years, but say Kirby Smart is .500 after three years and Mark Richt has at least one ACC Coastal title*)

Yeah, it doesn’t sound so bad anymore, does it?

Georgia has the pro-style personnel in place to take immediate strides, and Smart’s recruiting will lend itself to an immediate turnaround to eke out another 2-3 wins based on talent and decent coaching alone.

RIP, “Kirby Dumb” memes.

South Carolina (30:1): A retread hire at South Carolina? Surely you jest. Lou Holtz, Steve Spurrier, and Will Muschamp have all found varying degrees of success doing just this, and I’m hedging on Coach Boom riding Jake Bentley and the young Cocks to two excellent seasons before he takes a better job (not gonna happen, but 30:1 seems safe).

Or, Boom flames out, or has a heart attack on the field, or something.

Off the board, but let’s try it: 

Tennessee: Please god, yes.

Vanderbilt: For the complete opposite reason of above, please.

Mississippi State: Arkansas’ lack of sexy combined with an even less sexy history and Starkville.

Kentucky/Missouri: probably should’ve attached odds to both, but honestly forgot about these programs. Not a high enough ceiling for Lane, anyway.

Texas A&M: Tom Herman year 1 hysteria forces Kevin Sumlin out after 2017, Kiffin campaigns but does not get it.

 

 

 

The Playoff Race Is Interesting and Fun Right Now, So Let’s Talk About It


Saturday was a historic day in college football, as two of last week’s playoff teams lost to unranked opponents, and another lost to a left-for-dead-and-revived USC.

We got so much chaos, that…things should hardly change from where we were a week ago. Clemson, Michigan, and Washington’s losses don’t actually HELP the two reasonable teams we could’ve slotted into the playoffs in their stead, because they’re no closer to division championships.

If anything, the race only got more interesting because there’s a lot less room for error. Let’s handicap teams with a shot by conference:

SEC: Alabama.

That’s it. They’ve clinched the West, everyone else has a loss, and they’re unequivocally the best team in college football. Even if you’re dumb enough to think Auburn and Florida can BOTH beat them, that’s too bad because they’re still probably in and coming for your cookies.

ACC: Clemson and Louisville.

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You could’ve come up with a scenario whereby North Carolina and Virginia Tech both had outside shots. North Carolina lost to Duke, and Virginia Tech lost to Georgia Tech. Despite my best efforts in pumping up the ACC Coastal on this website and my Twitter account, the Coastal done Coastal’d.

While the Coastal was doing Coastal things, Clemson reverted back to Clemsoning. Failing to run out the clock needing just a yard on third and fourth down, the Tigers allowed Pitt to drive the field and kick a walkoff field goal, losing 43-42 at home.

And it doesn’t really matter, unless you think Wake Forest is beating Clemson this week. They still hold the tiebreaker over Louisville. Assuming Clemson takes care of Wake, South Carolina, and probably still Virginia Tech (ugh), they’re solidly in.

Louisville is an interesting case study without precedent, as the first two CFP’s were fairly clean with deserving conference champs. Saturday broke perfectly for them, as an 11-1 Louisville probably gets in if Michigan can keep the B1G fairly clean (thus eliminating Ohio State and Wisconsin in the process), and Washington drops one more (suddenly feasible).

So, the ACC still stands as the league with the best case to get two in the playoff for the first time, like we all saw coming three years ago. Clemson is basically 2014 Florida State and will lose the semifinal. Louisville is fascinating.

B1G: Michigan, Ohio State, Wisconsin, Penn State

This is where things get wonky, because Barry Alvarez has too much influence. In order of simplicity, this is how these teams make it:

  • Michigan wins out, thus eliminating Ohio State (2 losses), Penn State (head-to-head), and Wisconsin (title game).
  • Wisconsin wins out, and gets in with two close losses to Michigan and Ohio State.
  • Penn State wins out and Ohio State beats Michigan, giving us by FAR the weakest CFP team in its short history. This is a team that got DRUG by Michigan and lost to Pitt (playoff team-killer Pitt, apparently). They hold the tiebreaker over OSU, and the B1G will have a representative.
  • Ohio State beats Michigan, Rutgers or Michigan State beats Penn State (lolyeahright).

I said above that the ACC has a clear path to two teams. The B1G may have a better case. Ohio State is likely #2 in this week’s rankings, so they’ll already have a leg up on Louisville. Win out, don’t participate in a silly 13th game, and set up a Saban/Urban rematch in the 1/4 game.

Pac-12: Washington, Washington State (?), Colorado (?)

Washington’s hold is now tenuous, but a bump from a win over a smoking hot Wazzu and a Pac-12 Championship probably puts them back in the 4 spot. Based on what I saw the other night, I wouldn’t give them even odds to get through the next three weeks alive.

Washington State and Colorado are fascinating. Wazzu lost to Eastern Washington and Boise early on, but has swept the Pac-12. An 11-2 Wazzu is probably Rose Bowl-bound, so they’d need all of the 1-loss non-champs to lose. Same goes for Colorado…but Colorado has super-quality losses to Michigan and USC.

No, Washington State and Colorado don’t have a shot unless we’re looking at UT-Chattanooga starting Alabama on a three-game losing streak and eliminating the SEC. Or Virginia Tech winning the ACC while Louisville drops one to Houston or Kentucky.

XII: West Virginia, Oklahoma

Thank God we don’t have to talk about Baylor anymore (this is a week late, but even more so now).

WVU and Oklahoma conveniently play this Saturday– assuming WVU wins out, their case really is pretty compelling. 11-1, the all-important “scheduling intent” with wins over Mizzou and BYU– there would have to be some committee mental gymnastics taking place, but a 1-loss WVU SHOULD be in over a 2-loss Washington, and probably a one-loss Ohio State or Louisville…right?

Probably not.

But maybe.

Oklahoma, meanwhile, lost to Houston and Ohio State, so their ‘scheduling intent’ game is SKRONG. A 9-0 finish would push them over a 2-loss Washington, I suppose.

I think both would need help from the B1G’s #2 and Louisville, but they’re not dead yet.

My Playoff Ranking Guess, Because I Love Being Wrong

  1. Alabama
  2. Ohio State
  3. Louisville
  4. Michigan
  5. Clemson
  6. Washington
  7. Wisconsin
  8. Penn State
  9. Oklahoma
  10. West Virginia
  11. Colorado
  12. Oklahoma State
  13. USC (highest 3-loss team)
  14. Auburn
  15. LSU
  16. Utah
  17. Florida State
  18. Washington State
  19. Nebraska
  20. Western Michigan
  21. Texas A&M (somehow)
  22. Florida
  23. Boise State
  24. San Diego State
  25. Virginia Tech

Georgia Beat Auburn. What the Hell Happened?


That was fun.

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Let’s start with that, as it is a perfect (albeit more entertaining than much of the game itself) portrayal of Saturday’s 13-7 win between the hedges. Now that you’re ready to run through a brick wall, let’s dive into it.

FRESH HELL, DEFENSE, WHAT WAS THAT?!?!

Auburn entered the Georgia game third in the nation in rushing, at 300 yards per game. Auburn finished Saturday’s game with 164 yards TOTAL. Last I checked in with y’all, I was of the mindset that Auburn would march up and down the field on Georgia’s young (but talented) front. Put it this way: Auburn ran for 543 yards against Arkansas, who allowed 12 versus Florida. While Florida ran for a pedestrian 100 against the Dawgs, pure transitive projection states that we should’ve expected the Barn to hit 4,525 yards on Saturday.

Everyone simply did their job and played perfect assignment football in this game. Trent Thompson and Jon Ledbetter got pressure up the middle, Roquan Smith, Davin Bellamy, and Reggie Carter cleaned up anything the front couldn’t handle, and Malkolm Parrish had an outstanding game making plays in space. When you can force Auburn largely out of its initial read and force Sean White to beat you with his arm, good things can happen.

Mission Accomplished

Mission Accomplished.

If I had the technology (or the time) I’d love to go back and show y’all some GIF’s of what made this performance so great. In true 2011 Alabama fashion, Georgia was able to constrict the field with great consistency. That only happens against inept offenses or when everyone is winning their 1-on-1’s. Mad props to EVERYONE associated with the defensive gameplan.

OFFENSE: A WORK IN PROGRESS

Effeciency? Check.

Big plays? Check, with the caveat that a few were called back.

Mistakes? OH YEAH I’D SAY THERE WAS ONE, TERRY GODWIN.

Even though 6 points is nothing to be super proud of, the Georgia offense was consistent in moving the ball and allowing the defense to have the performance stated above. Besides bookend three-and-outs to end the 2nd and start the 3rd…there were no three-and-outs by the Georgia offense. That’s amazing progress. The running game was able to sustainably get forward progress and allow Jacob Eason to not throw out of 3rd-and-12, as had become the norm. And Eason played his most composed game of the season. I think we’re going to grow to enjoy his scramble drill bombs over the next two years– his deep sideline throws to Riley Ridley and Javon Wims were electrifying.

The offensive line came through with their most consistent performance, and did so against the most talented defensive line they’ll face. Props to them.

4,51 yards per play won’t win you a ton of games, but when you can do it and play keep away (can’t say I saw this offense running 76 plays against anyone) you give yourself a chance.

RODRECSPECS DA GAWD

That’s all I’m gonna say about that.

Go Dawgs.

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