What The Committee Blew: Nov. 15 Edition
This is completely biased by my guess at their rankings.
What’s the most confusing thing the CFP committee did this week? Hard to say, we didn’t get to watch Kirby Hocutt move the goalposts on what they were evaluating for the (x) consecutive week of this group’s existence.
What we do know: “Louisville is a very talented team and 2 through 6 is interchangeable”, well…okay. Except you have to justify teams jumping teams without a loss at some point in the future if you haven’t done so already.
Here’s how I (and more importantly, them) stacked up:
|Ohio State||Ohio State|
|Penn State||Penn State|
|Florida State||Florida State|
|Western Michigan||Boise State|
|Texas A&M||Western Michigan|
|San Diego State||Stanford|
|Virginia Tech||Texas A&M|
Chad’s total error: 38, for 25 spots!! That’s not bad, as I counted Tennessee and Stanford as #26 and #27 to not cloud my math with any more bias.
Here’s where I’ve got beef:
- What has West Virginia done to rank behind three multi-loss Pac-12 teams? And, for that matter, an Oklahoma State team (their only loss) who lost to Central Michigan? This week’s tilt with Oklahoma is probably their chance to make a jump, but I don’t have faith that it would pull them into the single-digit ranking territory.
- (This means you can now bury the Big XII without a complete s***show in the next three weeks)
- Ten…Tenna…Tennesssssuhhh… Tennessee?!?!?! THE HELL DID THEY DO TO GET BACK IN THE TOP 25?!?! If a win over Kentucky is worth a jump from the abyss to 19, Georgia should be in the top 20. I’m only sortof kidding. Let’s recap: Tennessee should’ve lost to App State, sleepwalked through Ohio, had a great half against Florida, should’ve lost to Georgia, DID lose to South Carolina…19? Sweet mercy.
- GLARINGLY evident that the G5 will never have a realistic shot to play in the CFP, regardless of the chaos out in front. There are at least 4 teams ranked ahead of Western Michigan that would lose to Western Michigan, and probably 8 that Boise would beat. And my pick for #24, San Diego State, is probably better than both.
- Where does a hypothetically-undefeated Houston rank on this list? At 10-0, you’d have to have them above Oklahoma, whom they beat on a neutral field. I’d be okay with them at 7 right now, with Louisville coming up on Thursday. Realistically though? 12? 15?
- SEC getting that love: Tennessee, Florida, and Texas A&M have more or less exposed themselves as frauds by this point, no? Auburn and LSU were either underpenalized or overrewarded, right? Or are we just blindly shuffling convenient SEC teams into these spots when we need to rank 25?
As it stands, it does bear acknowledgement that I’m okay with the only rankings that matter (call it the top…8-11?)
- Michigan at 3 is something I should’ve seen coming, because a) they lost on the road; b) the B1G love affair in this thing (as mentioned Monday) is absurd; and c) they’ve been flat-out better than Clemson.
- Washington/Wisconsin/Penn State/Oklahoma 6-9 is appropriate-ish (would argue that Oklahoma is stronger than Wisky or the PedoBears, but common opponents), and allows the committee to uphold its “conference championships matter” meme.
- I say that, but an 11-1 Ohio State bucks that trend as “Big Ten Barry” gets them and Penn State into the CFP. Yes, I’m adopting that as my own conspiracy theory. Get on board!
Upshot of all this? Georgia wins out and they finish in the top 25, according to precedent.