Monthly Archives: November 2016
This is completely biased by my guess at their rankings.
What’s the most confusing thing the CFP committee did this week? Hard to say, we didn’t get to watch Kirby Hocutt move the goalposts on what they were evaluating for the (x) consecutive week of this group’s existence.
What we do know: “Louisville is a very talented team and 2 through 6 is interchangeable”, well…okay. Except you have to justify teams jumping teams without a loss at some point in the future if you haven’t done so already.
Here’s how I (and more importantly, them) stacked up:
|Ohio State||Ohio State|
|Penn State||Penn State|
|Florida State||Florida State|
|Western Michigan||Boise State|
|Texas A&M||Western Michigan|
|San Diego State||Stanford|
|Virginia Tech||Texas A&M|
Chad’s total error: 38, for 25 spots!! That’s not bad, as I counted Tennessee and Stanford as #26 and #27 to not cloud my math with any more bias.
Here’s where I’ve got beef:
- What has West Virginia done to rank behind three multi-loss Pac-12 teams? And, for that matter, an Oklahoma State team (their only loss) who lost to Central Michigan? This week’s tilt with Oklahoma is probably their chance to make a jump, but I don’t have faith that it would pull them into the single-digit ranking territory.
- (This means you can now bury the Big XII without a complete s***show in the next three weeks)
- Ten…Tenna…Tennesssssuhhh… Tennessee?!?!?! THE HELL DID THEY DO TO GET BACK IN THE TOP 25?!?! If a win over Kentucky is worth a jump from the abyss to 19, Georgia should be in the top 20. I’m only sortof kidding. Let’s recap: Tennessee should’ve lost to App State, sleepwalked through Ohio, had a great half against Florida, should’ve lost to Georgia, DID lose to South Carolina…19? Sweet mercy.
- GLARINGLY evident that the G5 will never have a realistic shot to play in the CFP, regardless of the chaos out in front. There are at least 4 teams ranked ahead of Western Michigan that would lose to Western Michigan, and probably 8 that Boise would beat. And my pick for #24, San Diego State, is probably better than both.
- Where does a hypothetically-undefeated Houston rank on this list? At 10-0, you’d have to have them above Oklahoma, whom they beat on a neutral field. I’d be okay with them at 7 right now, with Louisville coming up on Thursday. Realistically though? 12? 15?
- SEC getting that love: Tennessee, Florida, and Texas A&M have more or less exposed themselves as frauds by this point, no? Auburn and LSU were either underpenalized or overrewarded, right? Or are we just blindly shuffling convenient SEC teams into these spots when we need to rank 25?
As it stands, it does bear acknowledgement that I’m okay with the only rankings that matter (call it the top…8-11?)
- Michigan at 3 is something I should’ve seen coming, because a) they lost on the road; b) the B1G love affair in this thing (as mentioned Monday) is absurd; and c) they’ve been flat-out better than Clemson.
- Washington/Wisconsin/Penn State/Oklahoma 6-9 is appropriate-ish (would argue that Oklahoma is stronger than Wisky or the PedoBears, but common opponents), and allows the committee to uphold its “conference championships matter” meme.
- I say that, but an 11-1 Ohio State bucks that trend as “Big Ten Barry” gets them and Penn State into the CFP. Yes, I’m adopting that as my own conspiracy theory. Get on board!
Upshot of all this? Georgia wins out and they finish in the top 25, according to precedent.
Saturday was a historic day in college football, as two of last week’s playoff teams lost to unranked opponents, and another lost to a left-for-dead-and-revived USC.
We got so much chaos, that…things should hardly change from where we were a week ago. Clemson, Michigan, and Washington’s losses don’t actually HELP the two reasonable teams we could’ve slotted into the playoffs in their stead, because they’re no closer to division championships.
If anything, the race only got more interesting because there’s a lot less room for error. Let’s handicap teams with a shot by conference:
That’s it. They’ve clinched the West, everyone else has a loss, and they’re unequivocally the best team in college football. Even if you’re dumb enough to think Auburn and Florida can BOTH beat them, that’s too bad because they’re still probably in and coming for your cookies.
ACC: Clemson and Louisville.
— Chad Floyd (@Chad_Floyd) November 13, 2016
You could’ve come up with a scenario whereby North Carolina and Virginia Tech both had outside shots. North Carolina lost to Duke, and Virginia Tech lost to Georgia Tech. Despite my best efforts in pumping up the ACC Coastal on this website and my Twitter account, the Coastal done Coastal’d.
While the Coastal was doing Coastal things, Clemson reverted back to Clemsoning. Failing to run out the clock needing just a yard on third and fourth down, the Tigers allowed Pitt to drive the field and kick a walkoff field goal, losing 43-42 at home.
And it doesn’t really matter, unless you think Wake Forest is beating Clemson this week. They still hold the tiebreaker over Louisville. Assuming Clemson takes care of Wake, South Carolina, and probably still Virginia Tech (ugh), they’re solidly in.
Louisville is an interesting case study without precedent, as the first two CFP’s were fairly clean with deserving conference champs. Saturday broke perfectly for them, as an 11-1 Louisville probably gets in if Michigan can keep the B1G fairly clean (thus eliminating Ohio State and Wisconsin in the process), and Washington drops one more (suddenly feasible).
So, the ACC still stands as the league with the best case to get two in the playoff for the first time, like we all saw coming three years ago. Clemson is basically 2014 Florida State and will lose the semifinal. Louisville is fascinating.
B1G: Michigan, Ohio State, Wisconsin, Penn State
This is where things get wonky, because Barry Alvarez has too much influence. In order of simplicity, this is how these teams make it:
- Michigan wins out, thus eliminating Ohio State (2 losses), Penn State (head-to-head), and Wisconsin (title game).
- Wisconsin wins out, and gets in with two close losses to Michigan and Ohio State.
- Penn State wins out and Ohio State beats Michigan, giving us by FAR the weakest CFP team in its short history. This is a team that got DRUG by Michigan and lost to Pitt (playoff team-killer Pitt, apparently). They hold the tiebreaker over OSU, and the B1G will have a representative.
- Ohio State beats Michigan, Rutgers or Michigan State beats Penn State (lolyeahright).
I said above that the ACC has a clear path to two teams. The B1G may have a better case. Ohio State is likely #2 in this week’s rankings, so they’ll already have a leg up on Louisville. Win out, don’t participate in a silly 13th game, and set up a Saban/Urban rematch in the 1/4 game.
Pac-12: Washington, Washington State (?), Colorado (?)
Washington’s hold is now tenuous, but a bump from a win over a smoking hot Wazzu and a Pac-12 Championship probably puts them back in the 4 spot. Based on what I saw the other night, I wouldn’t give them even odds to get through the next three weeks alive.
Washington State and Colorado are fascinating. Wazzu lost to Eastern Washington and Boise early on, but has swept the Pac-12. An 11-2 Wazzu is probably Rose Bowl-bound, so they’d need all of the 1-loss non-champs to lose. Same goes for Colorado…but Colorado has super-quality losses to Michigan and USC.
No, Washington State and Colorado don’t have a shot unless we’re looking at UT-Chattanooga starting Alabama on a three-game losing streak and eliminating the SEC. Or Virginia Tech winning the ACC while Louisville drops one to Houston or Kentucky.
XII: West Virginia, Oklahoma
Thank God we don’t have to talk about Baylor anymore (this is a week late, but even more so now).
WVU and Oklahoma conveniently play this Saturday– assuming WVU wins out, their case really is pretty compelling. 11-1, the all-important “scheduling intent” with wins over Mizzou and BYU– there would have to be some committee mental gymnastics taking place, but a 1-loss WVU SHOULD be in over a 2-loss Washington, and probably a one-loss Ohio State or Louisville…right?
Oklahoma, meanwhile, lost to Houston and Ohio State, so their ‘scheduling intent’ game is SKRONG. A 9-0 finish would push them over a 2-loss Washington, I suppose.
I think both would need help from the B1G’s #2 and Louisville, but they’re not dead yet.
My Playoff Ranking Guess, Because I Love Being Wrong
- Ohio State
- Penn State
- West Virginia
- Oklahoma State
- USC (highest 3-loss team)
- Florida State
- Washington State
- Western Michigan
- Texas A&M (somehow)
- Boise State
- San Diego State
- Virginia Tech
That was fun.
— Chad Floyd (@Chad_Floyd) November 13, 2016
Let’s start with that, as it is a perfect (albeit more entertaining than much of the game itself) portrayal of Saturday’s 13-7 win between the hedges. Now that you’re ready to run through a brick wall, let’s dive into it.
FRESH HELL, DEFENSE, WHAT WAS THAT?!?!
Auburn entered the Georgia game third in the nation in rushing, at 300 yards per game. Auburn finished Saturday’s game with 164 yards TOTAL. Last I checked in with y’all, I was of the mindset that Auburn would march up and down the field on Georgia’s young (but talented) front. Put it this way: Auburn ran for 543 yards against Arkansas, who allowed 12 versus Florida. While Florida ran for a pedestrian 100 against the Dawgs, pure transitive projection states that we should’ve expected the Barn to hit 4,525 yards on Saturday.
Everyone simply did their job and played perfect assignment football in this game. Trent Thompson and Jon Ledbetter got pressure up the middle, Roquan Smith, Davin Bellamy, and Reggie Carter cleaned up anything the front couldn’t handle, and Malkolm Parrish had an outstanding game making plays in space. When you can force Auburn largely out of its initial read and force Sean White to beat you with his arm, good things can happen.
If I had the technology (or the time) I’d love to go back and show y’all some GIF’s of what made this performance so great. In true 2011 Alabama fashion, Georgia was able to constrict the field with great consistency. That only happens against inept offenses or when everyone is winning their 1-on-1’s. Mad props to EVERYONE associated with the defensive gameplan.
OFFENSE: A WORK IN PROGRESS
Big plays? Check, with the caveat that a few were called back.
Mistakes? OH YEAH I’D SAY THERE WAS ONE, TERRY GODWIN.
Even though 6 points is nothing to be super proud of, the Georgia offense was consistent in moving the ball and allowing the defense to have the performance stated above. Besides bookend three-and-outs to end the 2nd and start the 3rd…there were no three-and-outs by the Georgia offense. That’s amazing progress. The running game was able to sustainably get forward progress and allow Jacob Eason to not throw out of 3rd-and-12, as had become the norm. And Eason played his most composed game of the season. I think we’re going to grow to enjoy his scramble drill bombs over the next two years– his deep sideline throws to Riley Ridley and Javon Wims were electrifying.
The offensive line came through with their most consistent performance, and did so against the most talented defensive line they’ll face. Props to them.
4,51 yards per play won’t win you a ton of games, but when you can do it and play keep away (can’t say I saw this offense running 76 plays against anyone) you give yourself a chance.
RODRECSPECS DA GAWD
That’s all I’m gonna say about that.
Dude Emeritus here, back from the dead to grow some whiskers.
The crew from my day job is doing a contest, and I really don’t want to lose to a bunch of Big 10 and Pac-12 amateurs in my office. So show me some love by donating to the cause (not to me…just to my fundraiser). In exchange, I promise daily updates on my facial hair non-progress.
And as you can tell by this video, I’ve been really working over-time on that beard.
Thanks for your consideration.
And, because Chad is horrible at deadlines, we should mention he is running a similar campaign in via his real estate business.
Essentially, the idea is this: call him with a ready-to-go client referral, and he donates in your name. $100 in the Charlotte, NC area, $25 literally ANYWHERE ELSE IN THE WORLD.
No contests here, but he wants to at least beat the last two years’ combined total of just over $500.
Donate your own money here, or contact Chad at firstname.lastname@example.org to connect him with someone in need of help buying, selling, or investing in property.
His selfie game is not nearly as strong, but his beard game is electric. Watch out for this one, folks.