CFP Rankings Primer: Week 11


The new rankings come out tonight at 7. Georgia likely won’t be a part of them, but who knows with the committee’s ever-changing criteria? Alabama was ranked 4th last week based on the new metric of ‘wins over teams with winning records’, which is absurd when teams buy 2-3 easy wins every September. The ‘eye test’ is subjective, at best. Listening to Jeff Long discuss the rankings on various programs each week is an exercise in futility of understanding what the committee does in their weekly meetings.

But, its what we’ve got, and what it lacks in transparency is more than made up for in intrigue. What storylines should you follow tonight?

All rankings cited, until the predictions at the bottom, are from last week.

The Big XII Cannibalism Race

With the SEC, ACC*, and Pac-12 North races all but salted up, the focus shifts to the crazy Big XII, where all of the games involving its exciting top 4 all take place in November.

*knocks furiously on wood

#14 Oklahoma State served notice that a little luck and an easy schedule weren’t a problem, as they housed #8 TCU in Stillwater, 49-24. They’ll move up, and deservedly so. They still go to Iowa State (which has been a problem before) this week before closing at home with #6 Baylor and #15 Oklahoma.

Gameday will be in Waco this week, as the Bears host the Sooners in an elimination game. Nothing comes easy for them, as they finish on the road against OSU and TCU, then hosting Texas on December 5. With true freshman QB Jaret Stidham at the helm, odds are they drop at least one.

TCU, despite being behind the eight ball with its loss to Oklahoma State, has the ‘easiest’ road. Kansas this week will be a laugher. At Oklahoma and home against to Baylor? not so much. I’d rank them last among the four contenders due to their 0-1 head-to-head record against the rest, and the fact that they’ve been more than fortunate to escape games against middling K-State and Texas Tech.

The odds that the XII has a team finish undefeated are looking extremely slim. Oklahoma is probably the most balanced, OSU is the biggest mystery, and Baylor is still the most explosive. If Oklahoma wins out, I think they’re in. But I expect chaos to keep the league on the outside looking in for the second straight year.

The Looming Notre Dame/Stanford Showdown

#11 Stanford hosts Oregon this week, and you never know quite what’ll happen. But this is an Oregon team that plays ZERO defense, and a Stanford team showing its most competent offense since the days of Toby Gerhart and Andrew Luck. After hosting Cal the following week, #5 Notre Dame comes to town.

Notre Dame plays Wake Forest and BC prior to this. One logically assumes they’ll win those.

What that will set up is likely a 4 vs. 5 or 5 vs. 6 game on The Farm on Thanksgiving Saturday. I don’t particularly care for either of these teams, and neither poses a threat to WIN the CFP…but a 12-1 Stanford or 11-1 Notre Dame is likely as deserving of that #4 spot as anyone.

Go Teams From Michigan

#7 Michigan State took its much-anticipated slide on Saturday in Lincoln. They just never performed relative to their rankings, and got by on an incredibly easy schedule. They, along with #17 Michigan, are no longer real contenders, but could play spoiler for #3 Ohio State.

Both will get their shot. State travels to Columbus on Nov. 21, and the Wolverines host the Bucks in their traditional Nov. 28 nooner.

Please, someone, beat Ohio State.

Extreme Long Shots

First and foremost, piggybacking on the B1G words, #9 Iowa is very much a contender if they somehow win out and take the East winner (sigh. Still likely Ohio State.) down in Indianapolis on Championship Weekend. I just don’t think the committee will be able to justify leaving out a 13-0 power five champ, as garbage as their schedule is.

#13 Memphis lost to Navy on Saturday, effectively ending the hopes of a Group of 5 team making a bid. But #25 Houston still lurks with games against both Memphis and Navy, the latter of which will decide who plays in the New Years Six. Could they make a run at the top 4? No, probably not.

And finally, delusional Carolina fan coming in hot. After (unranked last week, WTF?) North Carolina’s 66-31 dismantling of Duke’s acclaimed defense, the Heels should jump comfortably (given the chaos at the bottom of the top 25, which saw #18 Ole Miss, #19 Texas A&M, and #24 Toledo lose) into the back of the top 20. Were they to beat Miami, Virginia Tech, and N.C. State, it would set up a top 10 matchup vs. Clemson in the ACC Championship game. Is there precedent for a bad early season loss and subsequent dominant performance getting you in the playoff?

zeke

Yes. Yes there is.

Now watch them lose to Miami with me in attendance this week.

Projecting the Rankings

This will be useless in 4 hours. Oh well.

  1. Clemson
  2. Alabama
  3. Ohio State
  4. Notre Dame
  5. Oklahoma State
  6. Baylor
  7. Iowa
  8. Stanford
  9. LSU
  10. Florida
  11. Oklahoma
  12. Utah
  13. TCU
  14. Michigan State
  15. Michigan
  16. Mississippi State
  17. Florida State
  18. UCLA
  19. North Carolina
  20. Houston
  21. Temple
  22. Northwestern
  23. Wisconsin
  24. Navy
  25. USC

 

About Chadwick

Enjoyer of adventure, would support a Trump policy that requires a minimum IQ to tweet. @Chad_Floyd for fun, @ChadFloydKW for real estate.

Posted on November 10, 2015, in 2015 College Football Previews, ACC, Alabama, Big 10, Big 12, Clemson, Florida Gators, Florida State, Georgia Bulldogs, LSU, Michigan, Mississippi State, North Carolina, Ohio State, Oregon, Pac-12, SEC, UCLA, USC. Bookmark the permalink. Leave a comment.

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