SEC Stock Report, Week 9


We covered a lot of this in the DudeYouPodcast, which has still yet to win any awards, but the SEC race is starting to take shape.

As of right now, Ole Miss and LSU control their respective destinies in the West, and Georgia and Florida do in the East. GUESS WHAT: we’ll know who’s going to win the East (barring unforeseen dumbassery) by 7 o’clock on Halloween. I don’t know how I feel about that.

Today, the twist on the stock report will be divisional rankings, predicting for remaining opponents and doling out odds for winning the division.

East

  1. Florida 6-1 (4-1): Georgia, Vanderbilt, at South Carolina, FAU, Florida State– Pretty simple. If Florida wins on Saturday, they’re going to cruise to the SEC Championship at 11-1 or 10-2. Even if they lose to Vandy or SC. ODDS: 79%
  2. Georgia 5-2, (3-2): Florida, Kentucky, at Auburn, Georgia Southern, at Georgia Tech– Nothing between 7-5 and 9-3 will surprise me at this point, but I’m holding out hope that 10-2 is still attainable. More on what it’ll take to beat Florida later this week. ODDS: 18%
  3. Tennessee 3-4, (1-3): at Kentucky, South Carolina, North Texas, at Missouri, Vanderbilt– I’m now a heavy BUY on Tennessee for the rest of the year, their defense looked terrific at Alabama on Saturday. I think they win out (and thus finish 2nd in the East if Georgia falters). They would need a tiebreaker with the Dawgs (meaning UGA beats Florida then loses elsewhere) to make it. ODDS: 3%
  4. Kentucky 4-3 (2-3): Tennessee, at Georgia, at Vandy, Charlotte, Louisville– Probably blew its outside shot to reach Atlanta with its loss at Mississippi State, as their road would include Florida losing out in the SEC. Or crazy tiebreakers. The goal for Kentucky, as has been all season, is bowl eligibility. ODDS (of bowl): 80% (of SEC East) 0%
  5. Missouri 4-4 (1-4), South Carolina 3-4 (1-4), Vandy 3-4, (1-3): We’re just going to lump these together. As we’ve done for about a month now. It’s highly likely that none of these teams reach a bowl. All three have tricky nonconference tilts (BYU, Clemson, Houston, respectively). South Carolina scheduled a win against the Citadel, but can they win two at A&M/at Tenessee/Florida/Clemson? Hell no. Mizzou hasn’t scored a touchdown since October 3. ODDS (for any of the three to reach a bowl. Just one of them.) 14%

West

  1. Alabama 7-1 (4-1): LSU, at Mississippi State, Charleston Southern, at Auburn– even with LSU on the schedule, the Tide still has the easiest road among the West’s contenders. And they defend the pass well again. And I’m not willing to bet against them, ever. ODDS: 55%
  2. LSU 7-0 (4-0): at Alabama, Arkansas, at Ole Miss, Texas A&M– brutal. Not gonna talk about Leo Fournette, because Brandon Harris is maybe becoming the type of QB that gives Alabama fits? He can escape the pocket and push the ball downfield. I still don’t enough have faith in Kevin Steele as a DC to coordinate wins against Ole Miss and A&M to close, Alabama notwithstanding. ODDS: 28%
  3. Ole Miss 6-2 (3-1): at Auburn, Arkansas, LSU, at Mississippi State– They still technically control their own destiny in the West. They have their toughest remaining opponent in Oxford. They could finish 6-6 against this schedule. Or, obviously, 10-2. ODDS: 14%
  4. Texas A&M 5-2 (2-2): South Carolina, Auburn, Western Carolina, at Vandy, at LSU– So…realistically, at LSU is the only likely loss left on A&M’s schedule. To get to Atlanta, they’d need a 3-way tiebreaker at 2 losses with Bama or Ole Miss (who beat them) and LSU (whom they would have to potentially beat). Even given their anemic performance and the inexplicable play of Kyle Allen the past two weeks…that can happen. ODDS: 3%.
  5. Arkansas 3-4 (2-2): UT Martin, at Ole Miss, at LSU, Mississippi State, Mizzou– Let’s assume they beat UT Martin and Mizzou. They can win one of the other three, right? Then, do they go to a bowl game and DESTROY someone like they did Texas last year? And we deal with top-15 Arkansas again next year? Make it happen Bert! ODDS (bowl): 61%.
  6. Mississippi State 6-2 (2-2): at Mizzou, Alabama, at Arkansas, Ole Miss– snuck into the top 25 with a win over Kentucky, and could end up winning 9 games if things break right. Let’s tip our caps to Dak Prescott and Dan Mullen, noting that I have yet to see this team play this season. ODDS (SEC West): 0%, (playing spoiler vs. Alabama): 11%. 
  7. Auburn 4-3 (1-3): at Texas A&M, Georgia, Idaho, Alabama– The 4OT loss to Arkansas may have crippled their postseason efforts. I’m all about that result. ODDS (of making a bowl): 42%, because I’m scared as hell of that game on Nov 14.

About Chadwick

Enjoyer of adventure, would support a Trump policy that requires a minimum IQ to tweet. @Chad_Floyd for fun, @ChadFloydKW for real estate.

Posted on October 27, 2015, in Alabama, Arkansas, Auburn, Florida Gators, Georgia Bulldogs, Kentucky, LSU, Mississippi State, Missouri, Ole Miss, SEC, South Carolina Gamecocks, Tennessee, Texas A&M, Vanderbilt. Bookmark the permalink. 1 Comment.

  1. “I’m now a heavy BUY on Tennessee for the rest of the year, their defense looked terrific at Alabama on Saturday. I think they win out (and thus finish 2nd in the East if Georgia falters). They would need a tiebreaker with the Dawgs (meaning UGA beats Florida then loses elsewhere) to make it. ODDS: 3%”

    Would not UF have to lose twice for UT to win? Having only Vanderbilt and South Carolina after us that would be a virtual lock IMO. I see UTs chances at <3% more like <1%.

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