Week 5 SEC Preview
So many pushes last week. Didn’t like that one bit. Eight actionable games became six when betting lines hit exactly on two games and therefore cash returned to both parties. Thus, I finished with another mediocre 3-3 week.
|Week 4||Game Score||Result|
|UCF +15||S. Car 31, UCF 15||Loss|
|Syracuse +24.5||LSU 34, Syracuse 24||WIN|
|Florida -1||Florida 28. Tennessee 27||Push|
|Louisiana Monroe +38||Alabama 34, LA-Mo 0||WIN|
|Texas A&M -7||Texas A&M 28, Arkansas 21||Push|
|Vanderbilt +28||Ole Miss 27, Vandy 16||WIN|
|Auburn -1.5||Miss State 17, Auburn 9||Loss|
|Missouri +3||Kentucky 21, Mizzou 13||Loss|
Week 4: 3-3
2015 Season: 18-15
It’s go time. All lines as of Wednesday early morning. All lines via Caesars Palace accessed Via OddsShark.com. All games on Saturday.
South Carolina at Missouri, 12 p.m., SEC Network
This seems an awful lot like free money to me. Missouri has looked better this season. Missouri is playing at home. Missouri has shed the shame that is/was Maty Mauk thanks to a convenient “rules violation.” Mauktober and its reign of terror is finally over. Now it’s time for…LOCKtober as Drew Lock steps up. Mizzou has got this.
My Pick: Missouri -3.5
No. 13 Alabama at No. 8 Georgia, 3:30 p.m. CBS
I don’t bet on Georgia. I just don’t. And this presents the classic scenario of, “I’d gladly pay $100 to see Georgia win and I’d sure appreciate a return on that $100 as financial compensation for a Georgia loss.” Sure, there’s a one point window in there of awkwardness where Georgia could win and I could have bet against them and won money too. But why count on that? Care to guess when Georgia last won a game by a single point? It was September 23, 2006 against Colorado. So when I say, “Georgia hasn’t won a game by a margin as small as one point since Martrez Milner hauled in touchdown passes,” I’m not speaking sarcastically. Alabama, on the other hand, hasn’t lost a one-point game since November 26, 2010 (against Auburn). These teams may or may not be extremely evenly matched (we’ll find out Saturday and I’ll talk a lot more about it on this week’s DudeYouPodcast), but one-point games are an anomaly.
My Pick: Alabama +2
San Jose State at Auburn, 4 p.m., SEC Netowrk
This has Auburn “statement win against shitty opponent” written all over it.
My Pick: Auburn -20
No. 3 Ole Miss at No. 25 Florida, 7 p.m., ESPN
Do we really think Ole Miss is the third best team in the country? Do we really think Florida is a Top 25 team? I don’t think I think either of those things. But a respectable showing by Florida (even in defeat) could change my mind even as the Gators fall out of the poll. Similarly, an Ole Miss win by a large margin would go a long way in making me believe that this Ole Miss squad isn’t merely a team that has flashed (remember: they flashed last year). A big win on the road erases sloppiness of the Vandy game and makes a case for the Rebels’ longevity. This line seems criminally low to me, though. I would consider Florida playing Ole Miss within 10 points to be a victory with regards to “proving Top 25 status,” especially if Ole Miss really is a Top 3 team. But the line is just 7? Can’t get behind the coverage of that with an underdog. But man I’d love a nice SEC East sweep this week.
My Pick: Ole Miss -7
Arkansas at Tennessee, 7 p.m., ESPN 2
I don’t understand how you give Tennessee a 6.5 point edge here. Sure, Arkansas has looked like a dumpster fire, but for Tennessee to win by seven points, the Volunteers need to have a 20+ point lead in the fourth quarter at this point.
My Pick: Arkansas +6.5
Eastern Michigan at No. 9 LSU, 7 p.m., ESPNU
Don’t watch this game. Fournette will have 200+ yards and it won’t mean nearly as much as what Nick Chubb does against Alabama or what Derrick Henry does against Georgia…but somehow Fournette will be the story.
My Pick: Eastern Michigan +44.5
(Note: It’s hard to outscore an opponent by 45 points using only the running game, but I’m still not confident in my pick here.)
Vanderbilt at Middle Tennessee, 7 p.m., CBS Sports Network
Ah yes, the battle for the middle section of Tennessee. Folks are sleeping hard on Vanderbilt. It’s kind of mind-blowing. The Commodores have played four games and something possitive could be taken from all four:
- Stopped a prolific Western Kentucky offense in week 1. Hilltoppers scored just 14 points. They’ve since scored 41, 35 (against a Big 10 team) and 56 points.
- Made a theoretically good and possibly great Georgia team play ugly football in Week two.
- Scored 47 points on Austin Peay in Week 3.
- Hung really tight with Ole Miss in Week 4.
MTSU averages out to be a really strong offense. But scoring 73 points on Charlotte and 70 on Jackson State doesn’t do much for me. I’m more interested in their combined 35 points against Illinois and Bama. Because Vandy’s defense is better than that of Illinois and therefore the second best (behind Alabama) that MTSU will have seen.
My Pick: Vanderbilt +4.5
(Note: I think Vandy wins this thing outright)
No. 21 Mississippi State at #14 Texas A&M, 7:30 p.m., SEC Network
There’s not an uglier team to watch than Mississippi State. Every time they’re on TV I change the channel so that I don’t have to feel bad for Dak. Really, what does Mississippi State do well? For my money, the Bulldogs Dak Prescott well and that’s about it. Defensively, they gave up 311 passing yards to Nick Mullens of Southern Miss. He’s a good QB and a Hoover High School product, but that shouldn’t have happened. They beat an Auburn team that’s realllllly bad at the game of football but they needed a scoreless Auburn first half to win by eight points. They lost to an LSU team that didn’t pretend to care about passing and allowed 266 rushing yards to the Tigers in defeat. It’s Dak and nothing else. A&M is more versatile than that and playing at home. I think A&M has this comfortably.
My Pick: Texas A&M -7
Eastern Kentucky at Kentucky, 7:30 p.m., SEC Network
No line. Thank you.
That’s all I got/
Posted on October 1, 2015, in Alabama, Arkansas, Arkansas, Auburn, Blog, Florida Gators, Georgia Bulldogs, Kentucky, LSU, Mississippi State, Missouri, Nick Saban, Ole Miss, Picks, SEC, South Carolina Gamecocks, Tennessee, Texas A&M, The UGA Vault, Vanderbilt. Bookmark the permalink. Leave a comment.