Week 3 SEC Preview: Bet Against Georgia – It’s Just What You Do
Let’s get this out of the way and make some excuses. After a hot-as-hell Week 1, Week 2 was hellish for me. I blame the performance on a small sample size and a lack of discipline. That is to say, I bet against my own rules. I should have never picked Georgia; I always avoid that. That cost me. I acknowledged an irrational crush on Arkansas and should have never bet on the Razorbacks. And I had faith in a post-Fulmer Era Tennessee team to finish things off thanks to hunger and home field. That looked great until the whole finishing things off thing.
That’s three losses because I was undisciplined. And as for the sample size, that comes into play when we talk South Carolina and other teams later on.
|Week 2 Pick||Game Score||Result|
|Ole Miss -28||Ole Miss 73, Fresno State 21||WIN|
|Georgia -20||Georgia 31, Vandy 14||Loss|
|MTSU +34.5||Alabama 37, MTSU 17||WIN|
|Arkansas -21||Toledo 16, Arkansas 12||Loss|
|Tennessee Pick Em||Oklahoma 31, Tennessee 24||Loss|
|Texas A&M -30||Texas A&M 56, Ball State 23||WIN|
|Missouri -10.5||Missouri 27, Ark. State 20||Loss|
|Florida -20.5||Florida 31, ECU 24||Loss|
|South Carolina -7.5||Kentucky 26, South Carolina 22||Loss|
|LSU -4||LSU 21, Miss State 19||Loss|
Week 2: 3-7 (should have been 6-4 if I’d stuck to my guns)
2015 Season: 11-9
Now let’s move ahead. All lines via Caesars Palace accessed Via OddsShark.com Tuesday PM. All games are on Saturday.
UConn at #22 Missouri, 12 p.m., ESPN
There’s nothing to like about either of these teams, really. I mean Missouri is the token other-team-that’s-not-Georgia-in-the-SEC-East with a Top 25 mark. And Gary Pinkel has won two straight SEC East titles. But as we said on the podcast, Maty Mauk is worse every year. And that’s not a good thing for a team in need of a defensive identity as well. Mizzou only beat SEMO (
presumably a school for semen? Southeast Missouri State) by 31 points and struggled with Arkansas State. UConn, surprisingly, is 2-0, thanks to wins against powerhouse Villanova and Army teams (both by five points). I think this will be a slugfest relatively speaking.
My Pick: UCONN +21
Nevada at #17 Texas A&M, 12 p.m., SEC Network
Texas A&M seems criminally underrated if we’re talking resumes in this young season. The Aggies beat the tar out of Arizona State and covered the spread like champs against Ball State—no small feat in a come-down game. Meanwhile Nevada is exactly what Nevada should be in football. A tourist destination for gambling and that’s it. This line opened way to small at 25 and has rallied to 34. Again, this is something of a letdown game (heard that one before?) for Texas A&M and it comes right before an schedule stretch featuring Arkansas (LOL @ Toledo loss, but still), Mississippi State, Alabama, South Carolina and Auburn. It’s only week three, but all of those teams have been ranked in the Top 25 this year. Texas A&M won’t be in jeopardy of losing this game, but Coach Sumlin’s team might be looking ahead a little bit. 34 is points is a lot to give up.
My Pick: Nevada +34
#17 Auburn at #13 LSU, 3:30 p.m., CBS
We learned more about what team’s aren’t than about what they are last week. Auburn, as some (like me) may have anticipated, is not a team of great defensive prowess a few short game-weeks into the Muschamp Era. Auburn is not a team that has a quarterback to play its offense. But I don’t yet know what Auburn is. I could see the Tigers/Plainsmen/War Eagles winning ugly in 9-10 games. Or I could see them winning seven and losing ugly in five others (seems more likely). As for LSU, we don’t know as much either way. Because a road win against a ranked opponent in albeit ugly fashion doesn’t necessarily say a lot about what a team is or isn’t—especially for a season-opening game. Home field advantage will matter here. Fournette will matter here. The line is a little bigger than I like, but I lean towards LSU. But again, we don’t know what that team is/isn’t.
My Pick: LSU -7.5
Northwestern State at Mississippi State, 4 p.m., SEC Network
No line. Who cares…BUT!!! For those wondering if I “picked” Jacksonville State to cover a spread vs. Auburn. I didn’t. But I didn’t pick Auburn either. There was no line, kids. Pay attention. Read a website one time for me.
Austin Peay at Vanderbilt, 4 p.m., SEC Network
South Carolina at #7 Georgia, 6 p.m., ESPN
I’m so excited for this game. But let’s get the conventional, disciplined pick out of the way first though.
My Pick: South Carolina +16.5
I don’t bet on Georgia. I don’t. It’s an emotional hedge and it keeps my head and heart separated. But I really think Georgia could cover this spread. Think about this: Georgia fans are kicking the shit out of their team because it went on the road, botched kickoff fielding, refused to complete a pass for the better (or worse) part of a game and played lots of freshman on defense late. Oh, and after all that, Georgia was just one missed field goal (take your pick – a miss from 37 yards out in the first quarter or a miss from 43 yards out in the fourth quarter) away from pushing the spread last week. Overreact much, Georgia fans? South Carolina, on the other hand, lost its starting quarterback and gave Kentucky its first road victory since this song was atop the Billboard Hot 100 (for just one week mind you):
Oh, and South Carolina was favored by 7.5 points against Kentucky.
So Georgia fans, if you’re upset what are South Carolina fans? Either more reasonable with their expectations or melting down. This is not a good South Carolina team. I think we saw a poor effort from Georgia last week, but even if that was S. Car’s worst game of the year too, the Dawgs should win comfortably. And if that was a bad Georgia game and an average S. Car game (which isn’t beyond the realm of reasonable possibility), this thing could be a blowout. Not changing my pick. I’m just sayin’.
Texas Tech at Arkansas, 7 p.m., ESPN 2
As entertaining as the Razorbacks’ loss was last week, I kind of hate it for them. They’re about to destroy Texas Tech and that would have been a great way to start the season at 3-0. Alas, 2-1 it is.
My Pick: Arkansas -10.5
Western Carolina at Tennessee, 7 p.m., ESPNU
Florida at Kentucky, 7:30 p.m., SEC Network
I’m going to Athens with one-time DYC contributor Casey and we’re meeting up with Jason (he of JasonIsASmith and DudeYouPodcast fame) and some others for a day of family-unfriendly tailgating. When we get back home, I’m watching this game. You can’t stop me. You could sell me on either one of these teams finishing last in the SEC East (though South Carolina may have a leg up and a spur down in that race) or third in the SEC East. I think Florida is better than they looked last week and I think South Carolina made Kentucky look good. What’s that mean? This:
My Pick: Florida -3 – Bet the house!
#15 Ole Miss at #2 Alabama, 9:15 p.m., ESPN
Shoutout to the schedulers out there trying to make walking from Sanford Stadium to a college town bar to see the second half of this contest before driving back home seem reasonable. What? Who said that? That Alabama 6.5 line seems exactly like what it should be. The 8.5 opening seemed strong, but 6.5…man that’s tough. I’m not hedging here but I want it to be noted that if Ole Miss loses by fewer than seven points then we’re all overrating Alabama. Similarly, if Alabama wins by more than 10, then we’re all underrating Alabama. Maybe it’s my ethnocentric bias because Georgia actually has Alabama on the schedule, but I’m over the Ole Miss story. I find it incredibly unlikely that the Rebels make it to the SECCG regardless of what happens this week, so I just want to know more about the Tide.
My Pick: Alabama -6.5
That’s all I got/
Posted on September 16, 2015, in Alabama, Arkansas, Arkansas, Auburn, Blog, Florida Gators, Georgia Bulldogs, Kentucky, LSU, Mississippi State, Missouri, Ole Miss, Picks, SEC, South Carolina Gamecocks, Tennessee, Texas A&M, Vanderbilt. Bookmark the permalink. Leave a comment.