Week 2 SEC Preview: Georgia’s Got This. Right?
I was hot as hell Week 1. To get this out of the way: I missed the Georgia game, but Las Vegas considers all games concluded prior to the 55-minute mark to be no-contests. Therefore, the money is given back to bettors. So I didn’t win or lose. I just didn’t bet. It was nothing. With that in mind, I went 8-2 against the spread.
|Week 1 Pick||Game Score||Result|
|South Carolina -3||South Carolina 17, UNC 13||WIN|
|Vanderbilt +1.5||W. Kentucky 14, Vandy 12||Loss|
|Louisiana Monroe +35||Game Called Before 55 Min.||Money Back|
|Arkansas -33||Arkansas 48, UTEP 13||WIN|
|Louisville +10.5||Auburn 31, Louisville 24||WIN|
|Tennessee -20.5||Tennessee 59, BG 30||WIN|
|Texas A&M -3||Texas A&M 38, AZ State 17||WIN|
|Louisiana-Lafayette +17||Kentucky 40, LA-La 33||WIN|
|New Mexico State +37||Florida 61, NMSU 13||Loss|
|Alabama -10||Alabama 35, Wisconsin 17||WIN|
|Southern Miss +21||Miss State 34, S. Miss 16||WIN|
Week 1: 8-2
2015 Season: 8-2
Now let’s jump in.
All lines via Caesars Palace accessed Via OddsShark.com Monday AM. All games are on Saturday.
Jacksonville State at #6 Auburn, 12 p.m., SEC Network
There’s no line here, but this is Georgia fans’ chance to see what Christian LeMay can do against an SEC defense. LeMay, a senior at Jax State ran for two yards on one carry against Tennessee-Chattanooga last weekend. So shout out to the No. 4 Pro-Style QB in the class of 2011. You do you, bro.
More about LeMay because you know you want it: Last year he completed 27 of 52 pass attempts for just north of 320 yards and three TDs and ran for 171 yards and two TDs on 28 carries. His brother, Uriah, who was booted or transferred after a suspension at Georgia, is now at Charlotte and not seeing the field as a wide receiver.
Fresno State at #17 Ole Miss, 3:30 p.m., ESPN2
The line on this thing is only 28 points and I think the Rebels could smash that. Sure, it came against UT-Martin, but the Rebels ran and threw for more than 320 yards en route to a 73-point victory last weekend. Do we really think Fresno State, a team that won the game but turned the ball over three times against Abilene Christian, is 45 points better than UT-Martin? I don’t know that Fresno State is 45 points better than nobody. That’s not a typo/grammatical error. I don’t know that Fresno State vs. No Other Players results in a 45-0 victory for the Bulldogs. Also, Freeze has been sitting on some key players and this is the make-or-break year for Ole Miss so if they miss out on winning the West and a shot at the SECCG things like margin of victory will be critical to sneaking back into playoff contention. So let the Rebs loose!
My Pick: Ole Miss -28
#10 Georgia at Vanderbilt, 3:30 p.m., CBS
First of all, I expected the line to be larger. Secondly, I hate betting on Georgia. It never turns out well. But, Georgia can win this thing be three TDs. Four scores? Not so sure. But I’m very comfortable with something in the 45-20 score range and a 42-10 ballgame isn’t out of the question. I’ll talk more about this later so we can just leave it at that for now.
My Pick: Georgia -20
Middle Tennessee State at #2 Alabama, 4 p.m., SEC Network
Middle Tennessee State has some semblance of an offense, y’all. The Blue Raiders threw up 70 points in week one against Jackson State and they play at a fast pace (the second quarter of that game featured 42 points between the two teams). As such, it’s hard to expect them not to score at some point and given Alabama’s strength (running back) and relative unknown (damn the QB position is a lot like what Georgia saw in week 1 – a perfectly fine outing by the starter, a thoroughly intriguing effort by No. 2), I don’t necessarily see Alabama scoring 50+ points.
My Pick: Middle Tennessee +34.5
Toledo at #18 Arkansas, 4 p.m., SEC Network
I’m crushing on this Arkansas team so hard right now. I’m so far beyond Bret Bielema “Semi-Erotic” jokes it’s not even funny. Oh and Toledo hasn’t even played a game yet this season.
My Pick: Arkansas -21
#19 Oklahoma at #23 Tennessee, 6 p.m., ESPN
I’m pretty pumped about this game because both programs are so desperate for a defining victory that this thing has to be delightfully awesome football or hilariously ugly for one or both squads. That being said, whoever loses this contest immediately plummets out of the Top 25 so I’m not sure how meaningful it would be for either program. But the Volunteers are 1. a little more hungry and 2. at home. That should matter here. And I can’t wait for the Vol Hype to pick up steam after a win against a no-longer-ranked foe. Hell, the Vols will be 3-0 before running into a stretch that takes them to Florida, against Arkansas, Against Georgia and to Alabama. Eeeeek.
My pick: Tennessee in a pick ’em.
Ball State at #16 Texas A&M, 7 p.m., ESPNU
This has letdown game written all over it, but the Aggies were (for the second year in a row) one of the most impressive teams in the country in Week 1. What does that say about Kevin Sumlin and his team’s ability to prepare? Probably something. I’m going against the letdown and doubling-down on the Aggies. They have too many weapons on the outside. This is the kind of team that could complete 30% of its passes and still rack up 10 plays of 50+ yards thanks to explosiveness and sexy special teams.
My Pick: Texas A&M -30
#21 Missouri at Arkansas State, 7 p.m., ESPN3
34-3 versus Southeast Missouri State or whoever the hell it was left something to be desired for Mizzou. Maty Mauk was thoroughly
uninspiring Maty Mauk (12/22, 181 yards, 2 TDs, 1 INT), Russell Hansbrough got hurt after two carries for 23 yards. And now, somehow, the Tigers are only 10.5 point favorites against an Arkansas State team that lost by 49 points to #8 USC. If my math is correct that tells me the difference between a road game at #9 and a home game vs. #24 is 38.5 points. I don’t think I buy that. Expect Pinkel’s crowd to survive and hang tough – even against the spread. But it may not be pretty.
My Pick: Missouri -10.5
East Carolina at Florida, 7 p.m., ESPN2
Florida is going to beat the tar out of ECU and in doing so seriously enter Top 25 conversation. I don’t like it, but it is what it is. Unless it isn’t.
My pick: Florida -20.5
Kentucky at South Carolina, 7:30 p.m., SEC Network
As ugly as South Carolina looked at times on Thursday night, that’s to be expected. And, Kentucky looked uglier. Remember, South Carolina scratched and clawed its way to a narrow victory against an ACC opponent on a neutral field. Kentucky scratched and clawed its way to a narrow victory against Louisiana-Lafayette at home. Woof. And I’m going to continue bringing this up until it doesn’t matter anymore because he’s fired…but Mark Stoops. What the hell, UK? After closing 2014 with a six-game losing streak, a losing record and a contract extension/raise, Kentucky opened the year with a 40-33 win against Louisiana-Lafayette at home. Kentucky lost the yardage battle, the 1st down battle and the the time of possession battle. If not for four Ragin. Cajun turnovers, this could have been ugly for UK. LA-la was breaking in a new QB, replacing two of its three leading rushers (who combined for nearly 1600 yards and 15 TDs), filling the void of its most-targeted receiver, filling the void of 78 departed starts on the OL, replacing its two defensive tackles who combined for 30.5 TFLs and 15.5 sacks, replacing two starting linebackers and replacing three starters in the secondary. Translation: a completely rebuilding Sun Belt team was about all UK could handle. And Mark Stoops is under contract to make $4.25 million in 2019.
My Pick: South Carolina -7.5
#14 LSU at #25 Mississippi State, 9:15 p.m., ESPN
This is going to be interesting. Mississippi State was altogether forgettable in Week 1 aside from Dak Prescott casually throwing for 240 and two TDs while running for 72 yards on eight carries. And LSU forgot to play altogether in Week 1. But I have a hard time thinking the Tigers can’t ride Leonard Fournette for a 7-point win on the road. That has to happen.
My Pick: LSU -4
That’s all I got/
Posted on September 9, 2015, in Alabama, Arkansas, Arkansas, Auburn, Blog, Florida Gators, Gambling, Georgia Bulldogs, Kentucky, LSU, Mississippi State, Missouri, Ole Miss, SEC, South Carolina Gamecocks, Tennessee, Texas A&M, Vanderbilt. Bookmark the permalink. Leave a comment.