NFL Over/Unders: Gone Camping Part 1!
Full disclosure: this was a really hard blog to write this year. I really struggled, and not because I learned to hate football (impossible), or decided to stop gambling (HA!). No, it’s because in the NFL’s zeal to dominate every day of the calendar, there was no logical starting point!
Start the blog… the Rams figure out a way to make tax payers pay for a stadium without letting them vote on it.
Start the blog… Sheldon Richardson arrested for Fast and Furiousing with weed, a gun and a 12-year-old in the car.
Start the blog… Chip Kelly is a racist rumors starts all over again.
Start the blog… Tom Brady…just kidding, no one cares anymore.
It felt like there would be no natural place with which to start the conversation on how to best lose money slowly this year. Wait. It can’t be. It is. BY GAWD, THAT’S THE JETS’ MUSIC!
Thank you Jets for Jetsing all over the place, and giving us our first official sign from the heavens that not only is football back, but it’s going to be as weird a season as we’ve ever seen. Gambling on sports is still illegal, but talking about gambling remains legal as all hell, so with respect to that loophole we take a look at NFL teams, and make picks on their future success or failure based on the projected over/under in win total. We have some fun, and hopefully make someone money. You know. In places where gambling is legal.
We’re going off of the Bovada Sportsbook, my favorite site for (*ahem*) speculative gambling purposes. As always, these are the picks for the teams as they currently exist, acknowledging the blatant owner money grab preseason can see injuries that will alter certain destinies. We’re gonna deviate from the formula of last year and the previous year so that I can make sure I get all the jokes possible in. East and South today, North and West are gonna run Monday.
New England 10.5
New York 7.5
The Bills went 9-7 last year, and upgraded their entire operation at every level. Hell, Rex Ryan is basically a cartoon, but he’s proven to be a more than competent coach, and with the talent that the Bills bring back on defense, look out. The front office even displayed enough competency that I am refraining from making any ‘moving to Toronto’ jokes. That said, the quarterback purgatory they have found themselves in is VERY real and VERY ominous. EJ Manuel ran with the third team on Wednesday, and his first pass found the hospitality tent. He was going to be the quarterback of the future. OVER.
I tell you what, if that Ricky Jerret kid can keep his head on straight, I bet that he recaptures some of his glory days from his stint as a Packer. We’ve all heard the locker room rumors about his…extracurricular activities, but as long as he shows up on Sundays, this is an easy…wait what? Ballers is NOT a documentary about the 2015 Dolphins? Blasphemy. It’s not my fault that the fictional life of the Dolphins is infinitely more exciting than a team that looked at three years of Ryan Tannehill and promptly re-signed him for 6 years at $95 million. UNDER.
Something something deflated footballs, something something NO ONE CARES! I’ve gone from wanting to see the Patriots suffer, to not caring at all, and back again at least three times since the alleged deflating actually happened. Honestly, the only joy this story has brought me recently is figuring out JUST how annoyed the judge forced to preside over this sham is. They’ll go over because at some point the suspension will end, and pissed off Brady is the best Brady. OVER.
DID YOU KNOW? IK Enemkpali was claimed by the Bills because Rex Ryan is the god of trolls. Look, this team wasn’t going to be very good WITH Geno Smith. Now, with Ryan “I bet you didn’t know he went to Harvard” Fitzpatrick, maybe the mistakes won’t be as god awful, but they’re still going to happen. I feel bad for Todd Bowles. By all accounts, a great coach, and he’s covered in Jets before the season even starts. UNDER.
New York Giants 8.5
Well, it finally happened. The Cowboys were so competent this off season that I really have no jokes yet. Aside from potentially colluding with the Broncos to give Dez Bryant his deal and the whole Greg Hardy signing, Jerry seems to have turned down the Jerry-ness. And I for one am OUTRAGED! Jerry, people aren’t talking about how crazy you or your team is. TIME TO TRADE FOR MANZIEL. OVER.
Oh, less embarrassing New York team. You had a star defensive end in the midst of a contract dispute BLOW HIS FINGERS OFF, and the Jets still dominate the headlines in the Big Apple. One the one hand, the Giants were going at an established veteran in looking dumb in the Jets, but on the other, one of your players held on to a firecracker too long, and then was hiding from you in a hospital. When your front office is the Keystone Cops, and your quarterback seems to be stuck on Bad Eli, things are not good. UNDER.
RIP Nick Foles Blingee. Look, I’m not going to delve into whether or not Chip Kelly is a racist, because I don’t know the man. I will say that most of the people defending him don’t know him either, and that there have been a TON of tyrannical coaches in the NFL, and you don’t hear these rumblings about them. What I do know is that Chip is intent on running this team his way, which seems to include depending on Sam Bradford’s knees. So. Yeah. UNDER.
Oh, what the hell. ONE MORE TIME.
The Washington Professional Football team has a quarterback coming off of multiple injuries that they mortgaged the future for, a coach who openly hates that quarterback, and an owner who, in addition to being an especially terrible person, hates that the coach hates the quarterback. UNDER.
Is JJ Watt annoying to anyone else? Yeah, he went from college walk-on to current greatest defensive player in the NFL, and that’s a great story, but I think there’s something that is unreported here. Undoubtedly, he was one of the scout team heroes in college, trying way too hard when everyone else is doing walk-through. Now, he’s established and he’s STILL that annoying guy. We should not be romanticing this behavior. Also, I think Hard Knocks could convince me to hate anyone. UNDER.
The Colts just signed T.Y. Hilton, and with the other weapons brought in this off season, they will be trotting out some impressive firepower. Andre Johnson is the best player to ever wear a Texans uniform, and now he’s going to be catching passes against them twice a year. It’s a cold world, but when a player goes against a team he thinks did him wrong, these things tend to be hilarious. OVER.
No one cares Jacksonville, though you’re about to lose your LA landing spot to the Chargers/Raiders/Rams. UNDER.
The good news: Marcus Mariota not throwing an interception in camp is making news, and that means someone is watching the Titans practice. The bad news: Titans defense proving unable to force a turnover out of a rookie quarterback playing under center for the first time. UNDER.
New Orleans 8.5
Tampa Bay 6
RISE UP! Sorry, involuntary reflex. Dan Quinn is new, bringing with him that all important commodity HOPE. Sure, the o-line is still an unknown, the defense remains uninspiring and Julio needs a new deal, but we can trust a first time coach and a GM I’m tired of defending to figure it out right? Right? OVER. What? I know that was a wholly negative look at the Falcons, but I’m a homer. Sue me. At least Sam Baker’s gone!
The Panthers made history last year by being the first team to win the NFC South back to back since realignment. Cam and Kelvin are going to be a problem tandem in the division for the foreseeable future, and that defense remains mean as all hell. Could be another good year for the Panthers. AND they get to avoid the Steve Smith retirement tour that’s going to be tough catches and fist fights all across this great land this fall. God bless America. OVER.
Drew Brees has been on the way down for years now, and taking away his safety valve and gifting him zero noteworthy receivers is only going to make that slide even faster. Now, this is where you could usually (and rightfully!) point out that I am banging on the Saints because I’m a Falcons fan. But this year, I’m also right. UNDER.
So, how’s Jameis Winston doing so far in Tampa Bay?
“I think the biggest difference is the linebackers. In college, you don’t have linebackers that can actually defend the pass,” Jameis said. “These guys out here, you know, they’re jumping seam routes. They’re five yards under my seam routes; they jumpin’ a bender.”
That’s it for part 1, check back here midday Monday for part 2. Now, let’s play Geno’s new theme music!
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