More Evidence Football Is Coming: VEGAS ODDS!
Yesyesyesyesyesyesyes. It’s the time of year where every fan, media outlet, and radio host (HEEEYYYYYY PAWWWWWWWLLLLL) starts breaking down why they think the idiots in Vegas are wrong (the idiots in Vegas are more often than not totally NOT wrong). Today, CG Technology posted its odds for each Power 5 team winning conference championships, which is a lot more fun to delve into than national championship odds. For example, Vanderbilt and Kentucky are on the board, though still not at numbers that would pay off my student loans!
Here’s the list for the SEC:
There are a few things that jumped off the page at me here. Georgia going off at 5:1 is not one of them, as they again have no excuse not to win the East. The bottom four teams in the conference all hail from Eastern Standard Time, and Tennessee at 8:1 is…well, more on that later.
It speaks to the overall health of the West that Texas A&M, with three years of top-5 recruiting classes, sits at the bottom of the division in terms of odds. They return a top-flight QB and passing game, added John Chavis from LSU to bolster a defense that has a TON of young talent…I’d say I could be missing something here, but the fact is that the division is THAT good. For what it’s worth, I’d take them over Mississippi State in a heartbeat.
Longshots with a shot: Hate to admit it, but a team as defensively sound as Florida at 18-1 is mighty appealing. Assuming that the offense really was THAT bad due to Muschampin’, their offense could get back to ‘remotely competent’ and take the Gators to Atlanta in December. Mizzou at 12:1? Yeah, I’m not saying that’s impossible anymore. Watch Maty Mauk turn into the first Heisman contender since Eric Crouch to hover around 50% completions. aTm at 15:1, as previously mentioned, could be a decent roll of the dice.
OH-VER-RAY-TED: Tennessee at 8:1? Really? On a tic-tac-toe board there is a full spot for a big, orange ‘T’? I doubt it. Same goes for LSU, who will not have the quarterback play or the defense (!!!) to contend in the West.
Now to briefly run through the rankings, ‘Bama/Auburn/Georgia at 1-3 was to be expected, and…damn. Georgia has to play both ‘Bama and Auburn. Given the weakness of the East, however, there is no reason the Dawgs shouldn’t run the table in-division and earn a rematch with one of the schools feeding off UAB’s corpse.
On the next tier: Even though I said LSU was overvalued at 8:1, when I lump them in with Ole Miss and Tennessee, they are not the one that clearly does not belong. Tennessee would be the worst in the West with a bullet. Let’s call it yet another case of bowl bias, bolstered by the fact that they helped Iowa fans run EverBank Field dry of brown liquor. A healthy Ole Miss with a mentally stable QB could be interesting, as well.
Arkansas deserves their own tier at 10:1. Mostly because they’re Arkansas and Bret Bieliema, but also because they’re the biggest wildcard in the league. Andrew and I were big on their breakthrough potential last year, and they broke through, marking the first prognostication in DudeYouCrazy.net history to be correct. They could legitimately go anywhere from 11-1 to 6-6 this year and not surprise me.
Mizzou and MSU at 12:1 is just getting the boring bets out of the way. I don’t know why I possess an irrational hatred towards the other Bulldogs, but I want them to crash HARD.
We’ve already discussed aTm at 15:1 and Florida at 18:1, but yo: South Carolina falling from grace all the way to 25:1?!?! I get it, because their offense returns nothing and their defense was awful, but…damn.
The last two teams in the league are, respectively, the best and worst value picks on the board. Kentucky going off at 75:1 is at least conceivable* (hear me out: hold serve at home vs. Florida and Mizzou and win at SC and you’re 3-0 coming out of September, you get Auburn at home, and Georgia is the only road game where you’ll be a heavy underdog…then just win the SEC Championship game!)
*Conceivable was a strong word, but put on some royal blue glasses there and tell me that 6-2 with that schedule isn’t possible.
On the flip side, you have Vandy. 100:1 does not do this dumpster fire justice. There’s no logic to betting on Vandy.
Posted on June 17, 2015, in 100 Days of SEC Dominance, Alabama, Arkansas, Auburn, Blog, Florida Gators, Georgia Bulldogs, Kentucky, LSU, Mississippi State, Missouri, Ole Miss, Picks, SEC, South Carolina Gamecocks, Tennessee, Texas A&M, Vanderbilt. Bookmark the permalink. Leave a comment.