Jameis Winston Point Shaving? I Can See It.
All season long, Florida State has not been the team that hoisted college football’s last crystal trophy in January. For the 2013 season, the Noles won by an average margin of 51.6-12.1, which is just ludicrous, and went 11-2-1 against the spread.
This year, while still riding along undefeated with no threats standing between them and the College Football Playoff (apologies to Miami), the Noles have done something interesting: they haven’t dominated. Or even come close to it.
The average margin for FSU this year is 38.4-22.8, and if you exclude laughers against The Citadel and Wake Forest, that number shrinks to 31.6-27.8 (hot take for another day: why Florida State doesn’t belong in the playoff).
Something is just off about this team, and I noted it recently on the podcast, saying they were 1-6 against the spread after the Notre Dame game (and picking Louisville to upset them). Again, in 2013? 11-2-1. Things have a way of evening themselves out in betting, but to that extreme for a team who has lost a game in neither season?
For those who are link-clicking averse, the short version is this: Jameis Winston’s high school teammate Chris Rabb put $5500 down on Louisville +1 in the first half of last Thursday’s game. Winston threw two picks and went into the locker room down 21-7. Rabb wins $5000 on the $5500 (UL +1 was going off at -110, which, for the betting illiterate means that if Louisville was doing better than down by one, Rabb wins).
Again, Florida State has played a lot of “why is this so close?” games this year. N.C. State, who just last week won its first conference game in 13 tries, led the Noles by two touchdowns into the third quarter in September. The Noles are so supremely talented vs. the rest of the ACC, though, that they can flip the igniter and run away. Dangerous tactic, yes, but (thus far) effective.
I’ll let you draw your own conclusions on this, but for a team to endure such a precipitous drop in play vs. competition is eye-opening. And for a guy with as many hiccups as Winston, it just makes too much sense to not investigate.