Georgia Football: UPDATED THREAT WATCH
So, Georgia is heinously underranked at #11 in the initial College Football Playoff rankings.
How does Georgia sneak into the top 4, based on teams ahead of them losing? (Again, we’re going to assume that Georgia wins out, including wins against Auburn and an SEC West team currently ranked ahead of them:
SEC West (4)
1. Mississippi State
4. Ole Miss
Based on Ole Miss’ ranking of 4, it’s clear the committee is taking a ‘who have you beaten?’ approach. MSU still has Ole Miss and Bama, Auburn still has Ole Miss (on Saturday), Georgia, and Alabama, Ole Miss still has Auburn and MSU (and is in good shape with both at home), and Alabama still has MSU and Auburn (also both at home).
Georgia gets two wins against those four (projecting Auburn and then Alabama in Atlanta), and make no mistake: the Dawgs are in.
2. Florida State
7. Michigan State
10. Notre Dame
Florida State and Notre Dame both have Louisville on their schedule, and we’re all big Bobby Petrino fans.
Oregon’s still-suspect O-line and D leave them vulnerable to another L. They’ve gotten through the meat of their schedule, but host nemesis Stanford this week. They also have a Pac-12 championship game against someone with a good offense from the South (Arizona/Arizona State/UCLA?)
Michigan State is in if they beat Ohio State on Nov. 8. I’m conceding a spot there.
Notre Dame? Just ugh. Georgia, based on strength of schedule, would jump them with two top-5 wins.
The XII? (2)
9. Kansas State
Notably, they still have to play each other, so that’s good. TCU visits West Virginia this week as well, but closes with Kansas, Texas, and Iowa State. K-State has a much tougher road, visiting TCU, WVU and Baylor between November 8-29. This will sort itself out if TCU loses in the next two weeks.
… And if Georgia Loses?
I honestly expected Georgia to come in at 7 behind the big four from the West, Michigan State, and Notre Dame. Georgia’s best chance with a loss (let’s assume to Auburn) is a big win in the SEC Championship game coupled with multiple losses for the rest of the West.
Nobody’s leaving the SEC Champ out, and two-loss carnage will provide that for a two-loss Georgia team.
For that to play out, one quick way of it happening:
MSU: losses at Bama and Mississippi.
Auburn: (assuming they beat Georgia) loss to Georgia in SECCG, wins otherwise.
Alabama: loss to Auburn (still has a tricky game at LSU too.)
Ole Miss: loss to Auburn this week. Perhaps at Arkansas?
Basically Georgia would need to be the top two-loss team in the SEC with another loss.
Posted on October 28, 2014, in ACC, Alabama, Arkansas, Arkansas, Auburn, Big 10, Big 12, Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Bulldogs, LSU, Mississippi State, Ohio State, Ole Miss, Oregon, Pac-12, SEC. Bookmark the permalink. Leave a comment.