DudeYouGamblin’: Five Favorable Betting Lines, Week 3
Thanks, Oregon’s late surge, Stanford’s inability to score inside the 40 yard line (where they ventured 9 times for a total of 10 points), and four Maryland fumbles. You could’ve all saved me a little credibility after a 1-3 disaster in week 1, but here we sit at 3-6 as unbearable summer temperatures started to give way to reasonable 70’s days in Atlanta today.
1) Baylor (-35) at Buffalo: Seriously? A Buffalo team that squeaked by Duquense and lost to Army faces a team that hung 70 points with their backup QB. O/U is 67 1/2, which Baylor should get by itself. Line opened at Baylor -27.5, so I’m slightly leery of the action on it, but…hey.
2) Boise State (-16) at UConn: Boise is still a strong MWC program, even if the bloom is a little off the rose. Connecticut is a BAD AAC program which almost lost to Stony Brook. Yeah.
Seriously, an image search for something UConn-football-related-funny returns ZERO pictures of UConn football. Is this game even going to take place?
3) Louisville (-6.5) at Virginia: I realize I have a veritable ton of road favorites thus far, but this one makes sense. UVA is still a deplorable football team, even with the close loss to UCLA. UCLA is a heinously overrated team, given their close wins over UVA and Memphis. Louisville has Bobby Petrino, who still gives zero f***s. And Scott Stadium at noon is not an intimidating atmosphere.
4) Georgia over South Carolina (+5.5): Not gonna lie, I can’t believe this line given Georgia’s history of not scoring or covering in Columbia. The line opened at Georgia -1, so there’s heavy action on the Dawgs. I’m not comfortable with that.
5) Stanford (-28) over Army: Just…come on. A pissed-off Stanford team at home playing a service academy not named Navy. Poor Army.
The empirical evidence of having all of these teams play at least once (outside of Buffalo and Army) helps my confidence in these picks a little bit, although freak things (see the first sentence) happen. This is why I don’t bet until October at least.
If you’re looking for a bonus, we can go straight to Austin, TX, where the Longhorns probably won’t get it turned around. UCLA -7.5 is probably a better bet than most referenced above.
LAST WEEK: 2-3 SEASON: 3-6. Ugh.