DudeYouGamblin’: Five Favorable Betting Lines for Week 1
As Daniel Palmer has said many times on this site, we don’t encourage gambling, but recognize that we can’t curtail all degenerate behavior. As a value added to the already awesome service of being your source for Georgia football, I’m going to try to pick out five betting lines each week that could theoretically (were gambling legal, or if you could find an outlet) win you some dolla dolla bills.
Week 1 is always a tough nut to crack. Its impossible to predict which new starting QB will go gangbusters and which will throw four picks, which team will have 17 penalties and derail an otherwise promising line, and the nature of week 1: I know Idaho is going to get slaughtered, but will it be by 30 or 40 points?
Having said all that, I’m going to ramp down expectations for the week and pray for the folks that take my word as gospel for two reasons:
– I want you to make money.
– I really think you should get on board with a more credible source of words.
1) Ole Miss (-10.5) over Boise State
This one has all the elements. Boise’s only three games against even remotely comparable talent to Mississippi’s last year were all losses by more than 10.5: 38-6 against Washington, 37-20 against BYU (like I said, remotely), and 38-23 against Oregon State in the Hawaii Bowl. They lose coach Chris Pederson and replace him with a guy who is a lot more spread-oriented in his philosophy, which could lead to some mistakes. Meanwhile, many (myself included) expect a major step forward for the Black Bears.
2) Houston (-10.5) over UT-San Antonio
Last year, Houston won this matchup by 31 in San Antonio. This year, the game is being played in Houston. More importantly, just last night I called Andrew the “Larry Coker of sports podcasts”, and this gives you reason to watch football on Friday night, if you’re so compelled. I’m not compelled, but hey it’s out there.
3) Auburn over Arkansas (+19.5)
To be clear, I still have Auburn moneyline. But Arkansas should be one of those ‘not quite winning but much improved’ teams this year, and Nick Marshall is likely to miss A WHOLE PLAY of action following his marijuana ‘citation’. I feel really good about this one, which means I’m probably wrong.
4) Florida over Idaho (+36.5)
Yeah, I know Florida has a new OC in Kurt Roper that should allegedly boost their scoring. But Will Muschamp is still the coach, the ball is going to stay on the ground, and the clock is going to run. Florida topped out at 31 points last year in a win over Tennessee. A 34-0 or 38-3 score here seems likely, so give me Idaho.
5) Southern Cal over Fresno State (+22)
Fresno may be the best non-Power 5 team out there this year, and possesses two solid transfer quarterbacks who should ably replace departed Derek Carr. S.C. is ridiculously talented, but still remains somewhat enigmatic in the Lane Kiffin fallout.
SEASON RECORD: 0-0 LAST WEEK: 0-0 (because…obviously.)