That other SEC Game – A Closer look at Florida and LSU


Back by popular demand (I’m talking to you Eric Vinton), here’s a look at the other game in the SEC from the perspective of expected points scored and points allowed.

What kind of score could we expect from Florida?

The Gators four opponents (Bowling Green, Texas A&M, Tennessee and Kentucky) have allowed the following point averages to FBS schools not playing home games in Gainesville, FL:

Opponent Average Pts Allowed
Bowling Green

25.67

Texas A&M

6.5

Tennessee

32.67

Kentucky

23.75

 

Florida has scored 27, 20, 37 and 38 points in each respective game and thus combined to score an average of 37.7% more than is typically allowed by their opponents.

LSU’s defense (which will square off against Florida’s offense in a standard game of tackle football) has played offenses that average the following point totals against other FBS opposition:

Opponent Average Pts Scored
North Texas

14

Washington

19

Idaho

16.67

Auburn

20

Towson

21

 

The Bayou Bengals have only surrendered 14, 3, 14, 10 and 22 points against those five opponents.  Accordingly, the Tigers are holding opposing offenses to only 69.5% of their typical offensive production.

If Florida scores 37% more than LSU has surrendered (on average) against FBS opponents, the Gators could expect to score 17.35 (we’ll call it a clean 17) points.  Similarly, if the Tigers held UF to 69.5% of their season’s scoring average the Gators would expect to score about 21 points.

So, a point total somewhere between 17 and 21 (realistic football scores) could be expected of the Gators.

What about them there Tigers?

LSU’s five opponents have allowed the following point averages against non-LSU FBS opponents:

Opponent Average Pts Allowed
North Texas

21

Washington

12.5

Idaho

42.33

Auburn

27.33

Towson

41

 

The Tigers have scored 41, 41, 63, 12 and 38 points in those games.  On the season LSU’s offense is scoring 35.3% more than their opponents typically surrender.

On the other side of the ball Florida’s defense has squared off against opponents with the following scoring averages:

Opponent Average Pts Scored
Bowling Green

12

Texas A&M

53

Tennessee

42

Kentucky

27.25

 

Against these four teams Florida has limited scoring to 14, 17, 20 and 0 points respectively.  On the season UF’s defense is allowing only 37.9% of expected scoring.

If LSU scores 35.3% more than UF typically gives up the Tigers will register 17 points.  If UF holds LSU to 37.9% of their season average the Tigers will tally 14.8 (we’ll round to 15) points.

So, the Tigers could expect to throw down 15-17 points.

Conclusion

Do what you want with this information, but you might consider taking the Las Vegas “Under” which has been listed as high as 44.5.  After all, these figures are showing anywhere from 32 and 38 points on the board.  And, with two teams more content to beat the hell out of each other than gain style points I’d be surprised to see both teams go over 21.

 

 

 

That’s all I got/

Andrew

About dudeyoucrazy

College Football Writer

Posted on October 4, 2012, in Blog, SEC and tagged , , . Bookmark the permalink. 2 Comments.

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