Category Archives: South Carolina Gamecocks
Great week for the Dude last week. Never a doubt. Strong showing. I’m the best.
|Week 5||Game Score||Result|
|Missouri -3.5||Mizzou 24, S. Car 10||WIN|
|Alabama +2||Alabama Too Much, Georgia Too Little||WIN|
|Auburn -20||Auburn 35, SJSU 21||Loss|
|Ole Miss -7||LOLOL||Loss|
|Arkansas +6.5||Arkansas 24, Tennessee 20||WIN|
|Eastern Michigan +44.5||LSU 44, EMU 22||WIN|
|Vanderbilt +4.5||Vandy 17, MTSU 13||WIN|
|Texas A&M -7||Texas A&M 30, Miss St. 17||WIN|
Week 5: 6-2
Now let’s keep the magic magic-ing. All lines as of Thursday early morning. All lines via Caesars Palace accessed Via OddsShark.com. All games on Saturday.
New Mexico State at #14 Ole Miss, 12 p.m., SEC Network
I think New Mexico State has gotten better each game this year. I don’t know that for a fact because I haven’t seen them play a down, but I think they’re hungry. A lot hungrier, perhaps, than they were in the season-opener against Florida. Close losses to Georgia State (34-32) and UTEP (50-47) and a loss to in-state rival New Mexico (38-29) in a game that was tied in the fourth quarter has these Aggies ready to eat. And by “ready to eat” I mean “ready to lose by fewer than 43.5 points. Also on NMSU’s side: the transitive property. Florida beat NMSU by 48 points but Florida was 28 points better than Ole Miss last week, which means Ole Miss should just be 20 points better than New Mexico State.
My Pick: New Mexico State +43.5
#7 LSU at South Carolina at LSU, 3:30 p.m., ESPN
I’m too lazy to do the research on who’s actually attending this game now that it’s been moved to Baton Rouge as a result of the flooding in Columbia. But emotional implications aside, this can’t help South Carolina. And the movement on the line has been nuts. It opened at 13 and is now 18.5. I think South Carolina can cover 18.5. Thirteen was a stretch for sure. But let’s see some inspired play. Let’s hear Sandstorm at Death Valley.
My Pick: South Carolina +18.5
#19 Georgia at Tennessee, 3:30 p.m., CBS
Do some of this please.
I know players aren’t supposed to pay attention to things like gambling, but I hope Georgia players are insulted by this line. To cover a 2.5 point spread, Georgia could be trailing by 12 points late in the game. I’m struggling to see what Tennessee does better than Georgia. Say what you want about Greyson Lambert but he’s thrown for 40 more yards this season than Josh Dobbs and he’s done that with nearly 30% fewer passes. Jalen Hurd and Alvin Kamara form a talented backfield, but would you take those guys over Nick Chubb and Sony Michel? Georgia is 25th in the nation in passing yards allowed per game, Tennessee is 89th. Georgia’s allowing 123.6 rushing yards per contest; Tennessee’s giving up 171.6. The only way Georgia loses this game is special teams mishaps (all but guaranteed) and issues defending a mobile QB (a possibility). But I can think of 100 ways Tennessee could lose this game.
My Pick: Georgia -2.5
Troy at Mississippi State, 4 p.m., SEC Network
My Pick: Troy +30.5
Arkansas at #8 Alabama, 7 p.m., ESPN
Arkansas is gonna keep this thing tight yall. I’m telling you. That’s all I’m saying because I don’t know if I really believe that. But let’s do this. Road underdogs gonna cover.
My Pick: Arkansas +17.5
#11 Florida at Missouri
Man. This is just what Missouri does. Florida’s cruising along, biggest win in the SEC East (and one of the biggest in the nation, period) so far this year: check. Undefeated record: check. Red-faced prick as a coach: check. Then BOOM. Enter mediocre Missouri to make things interesting. I think Florida’s safe. And I want the Gators safe so as to make the impending Bulldog victory in Jacksonville as meaningful as possible and so as to all but remove the Tigers from contention. But this could be scary.
My Pick: Florida -3.5
That’s all I got/
In case you were wondering, YES I absolutely went into hiding in the aftermath of the Alabama game. I have words drafted that I still don’t believe (because they still don’t fully make sense to me), but we’ll get those on the site before the week is out.
In the meantime, it’s almost the time of week where one can stomach the idea of another grueling Saturday of college football. By stomach, the assumption is that everyone drank away last weekend’s sorrows to a ‘body doesn’t quite forgive you before Wednesday morning’ extent.
There are three games somewhat worth looking into, with the Group of Five matchup being the most intriguing.
On Thursday, SMU visits Houston (ESPN2, 8) in a matchup of first-year head coaching offensive savants (Chad Morris and Tom Hermann, respectively). I will be SHAMELESSLY tuning in to this and seeing who can hang 90 points first. For a nightcap, #17 USC hosts Washington (ESPN, 9). Washington is a really bad football team. Maybe JUST MAYBE we get a drunk Steve Sarkisian playing host to his former team.
Friday night, a Lane Stadium-sized asteroid is more than welcome to hit Lane Stadium, as N.C. State visits Virginia Tech (ESPN, 8). Don’t watch this game. Unless an asteroid hits.
The Noon Bloody Mary Action
Road games in October mean this guy is smoking a pork shoulder starting Friday night, and hopefully pulling it off right as Lee Corso puts on a mascot head. So by the second quarter of these games, I’ll be in an Eastern N.C. BBQ and bloody mary food coma, making this slate unreasonably enjoyable:
#7 LSU at South Carolina (…at LSU) (ESPN, noon) yeah, so this game is all sorts of weird. Flooding in South Cack moves it to LSU, who is now the de facto ‘home’ team but still technically the road team. However, LSU wears white at home anyway, so nothing is going to look amiss. All it means is South Carolina somehow pulls the upset.
Actually, that’s all a pretty solid hook for this game.
Indiana at Penn State (ESPN2) at the same time is the only other non-bloodletting on the noon slate, unless of course you count Christian Hackenburg playing behind the Nittanies’ O-line. #3 Baylor at Kansas (FS1) and the Red River Shootout (ABC) will just be fun ass-whoopings.
3:30, CBS, Dawgs, and what to do if it goes awry again
Let’s hope this timeslot goes better for UGA than it did last week, because otherwise your options are as follows:
- 3-loss(!) Georgia Tech at #6 Clemson, ABC/ESPN2 and opposite Wisconsin/Nebraska, for some reason, which is fun if you hate the ACC or Georgia Tech, because one of the two entities’ seasons will be over after this game;
- #13 Northwestern at #18 Michigan, BTN: I don’t get Big Ten Network, and for once, I say: “thank you, Comcast”.
- Navy at #15 Notre Dame, NBC, for which I say, as always: if this is your choice, please stop following this blog.
Early Evening Something or Anothers
The evening slate is full of hilarious upset potential games, one actually GOOD game, and #11 Florida at Mizzou (SECN, 7:30) where we are fully invested in a Tiger victory that could easily happen.
The good game referenced is, of course, #21 Oklahoma State traveling to West Virginia (7, ESPN2). Bear with me here: Holgo is a Mike Gundy disciple, which I didn’t know was a thing. West Virginia at night means batteries thrown at opposing players. Both teams are TERRIBLY capable of beating someone from the Baylor/TCU/Oklahoma triumvirate, or losing to anyone not named Kansas. If you’re in our Pick’Em, put this as a ‘1’ in your confidence scale and get as drunk as every WVU fan you see.
Hilarious upset potential games, ranked:
- #2 TCU at Kansas State, 7:30 FOX
- Miami at #12 Florida State, 8 ABC
- Arkansas at #8 Alabama, 7 ESPN
- #4 Michigan State at Rutgers, 7:30 BTN
Despite K-State’s injuries, they’re totally capable of springing an upset. Florida State’s offense is nonsense and Dalvin Cook is questionable. I can think of two occasions where Rutgers (who has never been good) has beaten top-5 opponents at home in the last seven years.
Then…there’s #3 on the list. Plausible? Kinda.
We’re Up All Night to Get Lucky (With the Best Game of the Week)
#23 Cal at #5 Utah (10, ESPN) is said game. We were all stupid enough to get drunk in Athens’ torrential downpour last week that we missed an excellent slate of games. Turns out, the ones who stayed home last week were the lucky ones.
This is not the blog post in which we tell you everything is okay.
Let’s just jump right in.
Florida, Texas A&M, Alabama, Mizzou with a new QB
Florida beating Ole Miss 38-10 makes it twice as bad. In the “begrudging self props” category, I wrote this before the season:
With some offensive tweaks, you could squint and see a 10-2 team in blue and orange (still a gross color combination) in 2015. (And on the Ole Miss game) If they’re 4-0 (2-0) coming into this, they’ll already be ranked. The Swamp will be electric for the ESPN 7:00 kickoff (not CBS because of the matter of Alabama/Georgia). Two teams that struggled on offense last year, and one that four games into a new system should be much improved.
Yep. Full ‘buy’ at this point. Your SEC East champs.
Alabama: I don’t wanna talk about it.
Texas A&M: Not convinced they’re great yet, but they more or less shut down Dak Prescott with the still-suspect defense, and showed offensive balance for once. They’re a classic ‘you don’t want to play them, but they could lose to anybody’ team for the rest of the season. That makes them scary in the SEC West.
Missouri: For two years of previews, Andrew and I harped on Maty Mauk’s mindnumbingly low completion percentage for what amounts to a dink-and-dunk offense. New guy Drew Lock started 13/16 in Mizzou’s win over South Carolina.
That’s it. This is what a Brian Schottenheimer offense gets you (short incompletions, killed momentum, negative field position), and this is the price we pay for being Georgia fans.
I wrote the following subhead in a post entitled “Three Reasons Alabama Will Win” last week, mostly to troll you, the reader. Now I kinda believe it:
S**t, it Georgia the new Clemson?
Tennessee, Kentucky, LSU, Ole Miss, Arkansas, Mississippi State
Why hold Tennessee? Three close losses in games they should’ve won. Verne and Gary curse this weekend. GRAY UNIFORMS! The ‘overdue’ factor. See also: “SELL” column.
Kentucky: I don’t know what to make of them, as this is their second pedestrian performance against a barely-FBS program. ‘Up-or-down-to-your-competition’ team from 2013 and 2014? Your two-time East champ Missouri Tigers.
LSU: Will fall off in November when Leonard Fournette’s legs do.
Ole Miss: Not fair to have them as a ‘hold’ when I sell on Georgia, but they have a tiebreaker in place over their biggest division competition.
Arkansas: HEY NOW, BERT!
Mississippi State: SO close to putting them in the following category, invented JUST THIS WEEK!
Allow me to introduce the category in which I exercise extreme schadenfreude in burying teams. Please note, Georgia fans that haven’t stopped reading yet, that I did not ‘bury’ the Dawgs (though I totally just edited out the phrase ‘bury the Dawgs’).
Auburn, South Carolina, Vanderbilt
Auburn: Outgained by San Jose State, but 4 turnovers buried the Spartans. They then dismissed Duke Williams this week.
South Carolina: Lost the game I hope nobody watched, 24-10. At least they can go into full ‘groom Lorenzo Nunez’ mode now.
Vanderbilt: Vanderbilt. They actually BEAT MTSU for their second win of the season. PROGRESS!
Shelved for this week because I want one more week of sample size (namely, I want to see Georgia bounce back so I can keep them in the top tier).
So many pushes last week. Didn’t like that one bit. Eight actionable games became six when betting lines hit exactly on two games and therefore cash returned to both parties. Thus, I finished with another mediocre 3-3 week.
|Week 4||Game Score||Result|
|UCF +15||S. Car 31, UCF 15||Loss|
|Syracuse +24.5||LSU 34, Syracuse 24||WIN|
|Florida -1||Florida 28. Tennessee 27||Push|
|Louisiana Monroe +38||Alabama 34, LA-Mo 0||WIN|
|Texas A&M -7||Texas A&M 28, Arkansas 21||Push|
|Vanderbilt +28||Ole Miss 27, Vandy 16||WIN|
|Auburn -1.5||Miss State 17, Auburn 9||Loss|
|Missouri +3||Kentucky 21, Mizzou 13||Loss|
Week 4: 3-3
2015 Season: 18-15
It’s go time. All lines as of Wednesday early morning. All lines via Caesars Palace accessed Via OddsShark.com. All games on Saturday.
South Carolina at Missouri, 12 p.m., SEC Network
This seems an awful lot like free money to me. Missouri has looked better this season. Missouri is playing at home. Missouri has shed the shame that is/was Maty Mauk thanks to a convenient “rules violation.” Mauktober and its reign of terror is finally over. Now it’s time for…LOCKtober as Drew Lock steps up. Mizzou has got this.
My Pick: Missouri -3.5
No. 13 Alabama at No. 8 Georgia, 3:30 p.m. CBS
I don’t bet on Georgia. I just don’t. And this presents the classic scenario of, “I’d gladly pay $100 to see Georgia win and I’d sure appreciate a return on that $100 as financial compensation for a Georgia loss.” Sure, there’s a one point window in there of awkwardness where Georgia could win and I could have bet against them and won money too. But why count on that? Care to guess when Georgia last won a game by a single point? It was September 23, 2006 against Colorado. So when I say, “Georgia hasn’t won a game by a margin as small as one point since Martrez Milner hauled in touchdown passes,” I’m not speaking sarcastically. Alabama, on the other hand, hasn’t lost a one-point game since November 26, 2010 (against Auburn). These teams may or may not be extremely evenly matched (we’ll find out Saturday and I’ll talk a lot more about it on this week’s DudeYouPodcast), but one-point games are an anomaly.
My Pick: Alabama +2
San Jose State at Auburn, 4 p.m., SEC Netowrk
This has Auburn “statement win against shitty opponent” written all over it.
My Pick: Auburn -20
No. 3 Ole Miss at No. 25 Florida, 7 p.m., ESPN
Do we really think Ole Miss is the third best team in the country? Do we really think Florida is a Top 25 team? I don’t think I think either of those things. But a respectable showing by Florida (even in defeat) could change my mind even as the Gators fall out of the poll. Similarly, an Ole Miss win by a large margin would go a long way in making me believe that this Ole Miss squad isn’t merely a team that has flashed (remember: they flashed last year). A big win on the road erases sloppiness of the Vandy game and makes a case for the Rebels’ longevity. This line seems criminally low to me, though. I would consider Florida playing Ole Miss within 10 points to be a victory with regards to “proving Top 25 status,” especially if Ole Miss really is a Top 3 team. But the line is just 7? Can’t get behind the coverage of that with an underdog. But man I’d love a nice SEC East sweep this week.
My Pick: Ole Miss -7
Arkansas at Tennessee, 7 p.m., ESPN 2
I don’t understand how you give Tennessee a 6.5 point edge here. Sure, Arkansas has looked like a dumpster fire, but for Tennessee to win by seven points, the Volunteers need to have a 20+ point lead in the fourth quarter at this point.
My Pick: Arkansas +6.5
Eastern Michigan at No. 9 LSU, 7 p.m., ESPNU
Don’t watch this game. Fournette will have 200+ yards and it won’t mean nearly as much as what Nick Chubb does against Alabama or what Derrick Henry does against Georgia…but somehow Fournette will be the story.
My Pick: Eastern Michigan +44.5
(Note: It’s hard to outscore an opponent by 45 points using only the running game, but I’m still not confident in my pick here.)
Vanderbilt at Middle Tennessee, 7 p.m., CBS Sports Network
Ah yes, the battle for the middle section of Tennessee. Folks are sleeping hard on Vanderbilt. It’s kind of mind-blowing. The Commodores have played four games and something possitive could be taken from all four:
- Stopped a prolific Western Kentucky offense in week 1. Hilltoppers scored just 14 points. They’ve since scored 41, 35 (against a Big 10 team) and 56 points.
- Made a theoretically good and possibly great Georgia team play ugly football in Week two.
- Scored 47 points on Austin Peay in Week 3.
- Hung really tight with Ole Miss in Week 4.
MTSU averages out to be a really strong offense. But scoring 73 points on Charlotte and 70 on Jackson State doesn’t do much for me. I’m more interested in their combined 35 points against Illinois and Bama. Because Vandy’s defense is better than that of Illinois and therefore the second best (behind Alabama) that MTSU will have seen.
My Pick: Vanderbilt +4.5
(Note: I think Vandy wins this thing outright)
No. 21 Mississippi State at #14 Texas A&M, 7:30 p.m., SEC Network
There’s not an uglier team to watch than Mississippi State. Every time they’re on TV I change the channel so that I don’t have to feel bad for Dak. Really, what does Mississippi State do well? For my money, the Bulldogs Dak Prescott well and that’s about it. Defensively, they gave up 311 passing yards to Nick Mullens of Southern Miss. He’s a good QB and a Hoover High School product, but that shouldn’t have happened. They beat an Auburn team that’s realllllly bad at the game of football but they needed a scoreless Auburn first half to win by eight points. They lost to an LSU team that didn’t pretend to care about passing and allowed 266 rushing yards to the Tigers in defeat. It’s Dak and nothing else. A&M is more versatile than that and playing at home. I think A&M has this comfortably.
My Pick: Texas A&M -7
Eastern Kentucky at Kentucky, 7:30 p.m., SEC Network
No line. Thank you.
That’s all I got/
Next week we get to make some sweeping changes, for better or for worse.
Alabama, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, the class with which Georgia handled the Devon Gales incident.
I’m buying Alabama for posterity because its Alabama game week and I don’t jinx my teams. They did what Georgia did this week– survived another lower-level easy win with no major injuries. Only Lane Kiffin rumors.
Florida, I don’t like being right in this regard, but…they’re 2-0 in the SEC with Ole Miss coming into town this Saturday night. Wins are wins, especially in the first month of a new coaching regime.
I cheered for Florida and Duke today to help my teams. September is a dark, dark time.
— Chad Floyd (@Chad_Floyd) September 26, 2015
Kentucky is more of a long-term buy, because hey. 2-1 without having played Vandy yet is the best Kentucky I’ve seen in what, 10 years?
Arkansas, Auburn, Missouri, South Carolina, Vanderbilt, Tennessee’s ability to hold a lead in the fourth quarter (again).
MAKE THEM DIG THEIR OWN GRAVES WATCH: Auburn, South Carolina, Vandy. They done. All are 0-2, all have no hope, and all is good in the world.
Amazingly, Arkansas should have easily won the game against Texas A&M on Saturday night. They dominated time of possession, made moving the ball look EXTREMELY easy in the third quarter, then…changed their gameplan. I’m not putting a second-straight second half resurgence past them, but…it’s not likely.
Mizzou, God bless. They FINALLY lost a game they deserved to lose. Good on ya, Kentucky.
Maty Mauk is freaking abysmal. #SECEastChamps
— Chad Floyd (@Chad_Floyd) September 27, 2015
LSU, Mississippi State, Ole Miss, Tennessee, Texas A&M, and…on to your hats this week.
I’m going to go ahead and throw my hat into the ring as a non-believer in LSU, and it has nothing to do, specifically, with their 34-24 win at Syracuse on Saturday. I just don’t think their defense or the “Fournette and get out of the way” offense are sustainable, long-term. 3-0 coming out of September would have looked pretty good to any objective LSU fan a month ago, though.
#CLANGA just kinda sat on Auburn for 60 minutes, and that was effective. Nothing really to write home about from that. They travel to Texas A&M, who looked dominant, then lost, then damn good again in their overtime win against Arkansas. Their win is a case study in the yards per play vs. time of possession debate (I don’t know if there is one). If there is, another win for YPP! To quote anonymous:
You down with YPP?
Yeah you know me
Ole Miss gets a hold for the week for its not-inspiring win over Vandy, who, despite all of my talk of relegating them to the Sun Belt, has acquitted itself in two SEC games in which it was outmatched on paper.
Finally, the strange case of Tennessee. I’m not selling because they WILL beat someone of note this year (hell, give Alabama their third loss). But…what happened to their passing game? They have the most talented group of receivers in the league outside of College Station, these receivers established themselves on college football fields last year…and none have over 100 receiving yards through a MONTH? It’s ridiculous, and definitely something to watch going forward. If the Passtronaut is no better at pushing the ball downfield than his predecessors, well buddy, you’ve got another 6-6 squad on your hands.
Power Ranked, Just Straight Up This Week
Based on schedule and performance to date as opposed to projecting.
- Ole Miss
- Texas A&M
- Mississippi State
- South Carolina