Category Archives: Florida Gators
I said back in November that McElwain is the most underrated coach in College football, and I thought he would get the nod for the Florida job. It has been reported that Jeremy Foley (Florida AD) met with McElwain today, and I am assuming he will at least have a formal job offer by the end of the week. If Florida does not get him, look for Michigan or Nebraska to reach out to the Colorado State coach soon. This could be a nightmare hire for the SEC East. Here is the report.
Pig Suey Braxton Miller?
If Braxton Miller were to transfer at the end of this season, do you think he would follow in Russell Wilson’s path and request the services of Brett Beilema? Imagine those running backs, with a QB that could actually keep a defense honest with the pass. If Arkansas had that against Mizzou, UGA might actually be in Atlanta this weekend. Here is the first report on the possibility of the Buckeye star coming to the SEC.
Tip Of The Cap To Muschamp
In his final press conference, Will Muschamp finally did not disappoint like his career at Florida. Muschamp has been a class act through this firing process, and I am sure he is going to be the most sought after defensive coordinator in the coming offseason. I just pray he does not go to Auburn. Imagine Muschamp and Malzahn on the same sideline? Talk about dangerous. Here is the final press conference of Will Muschamp.
Music City Or Bust
I will be the first to tell you that Georgia had a disappointing year, but we can still win 10 games with a big bowl game win. 10 wins is a good year for most teams, and Georgia being projected to go to the Music City Bowl is a complete insult.
- College Football Playoff Semifinal (Sugar Bowl): Alabama vs Ohio State
- Orange: Mississippi State vs Georgia Tech
- Cotton: Ole Miss vs Baylor
- Citrus: Mizzou vs Minnesota
- Outback: Auburn vs Wisconsin
- Music City: Georgia vs Maryland
- TaxSlayer: LSU vs Boston College
- Belk: Florida vs Notre Dame
- Liberty: Tennessee vs Texas
- Texas: Texas A&M vs West Virginia
- Independence: Arkansas vs N.C. State
- Birmingham: South Carolina vs Cincinnati
- Auburn should not be in the Outback Bowl over UGA. This is a four loss Auburn team who LOST TO UGA! Excuse me, DESTROYED by UGA. I will say Nashville is a much better city than Tampa Bay, but it is a little bit of an insult for UGA to play Maryland after beating Auburn.
- If there is anyway Texas and Texas A&M can play one another, it needs to happen. I am tired of this little cat fight between the schools, you are rivals, play each other.
- South Carolina does not deserve to go to a bowl over Georgia Southern. At All. South Carolina was picked by most (not me) to win the East, but instead they are barely bowl eligible. I just want to watch the world burn.
I understand UGA lost to SC and Florida, but they should still be rewarded for having a shot at another 10 win season. If there is a way for Auburn to not receive a bowl invite, that would be the only thing that could make me happy after receiving a Music City Bowl bid.
The ACC and the SEC both have two divisions. If I want to be overly generic, each conference has a strong division and a week division. In the ACC, the Atlantic division is Strong and the Coastal division is Weak. In the SEC, the West is Strong and the East is Weak.
With that—and external data like division standings—in mind, the ACC’s “Sweep” of the SEC was really rather mundane this past weekend.
Here’s how the games looked at first glance:
- ACC Florida State defeated SEC Florida.
- ACC Clemson defeated SEC South Carolina.
- ACC Louisville defeated SEC Kentucky.
- ACC Georgia Tech defeated SEC Georgia.
But with some context, here’s what actually happened:
- ACC Strong No. 1 defeated SEC Weak No. 3 by a score of 24-19 at home.
- ACC Strong No 2. defeated SEC Weak No 4. 35-17 at home.
- ACC Strong No. 3 defeated SEC Weak No. 6 44-40 at home.
- ACC Weak No. 1 defeated SEC Weak No 2. on the road in overtime.
Which of those games was stunning? Which of those outcomes were unanticipated? Maybe all of them, but we aren’t comparing apples to apples in these matchups. If we were:
- Florida would have played 6-6 North Carolina instead of 12-0 Florida State.
- South Carolina would have played 6-6 Pittsburgh instead of 9-3 Clemson.
- Kentucky would have played 6-6 Virginia Tech instead of 9-3 Louisville.
- Georgia would have played 9-3 Duke instead of 10-2 Georgia Tech.
Oh, and three of the four games wouldn’t have been on the road for the SEC.
So before you rally behind the ACC, ask yourself:
- Would Florida State, the best team in the better division of the ACC, really beat Alabama, the best team in the SEC’s best division? It’s possible, but Alabama beat the tar out of Florida (42-21) and FSU did not.
- Would Clemson, the second-best team in the ACC’s weaker division, beat up on Georgia, the second-best team in the SEC’s weaker division? No. We don’t have to guess on this one. Georgia beat Clemson 45-21.
- Would Louisville, the third-best team in the ACC’s weaker division, really run through Florida, the SEC East’s third-best team? I have no clue. But seeing as Florida beat Kentucky by a larger margin than Louisville and played Florida State closer than Louisville, I can’t quite bet against the Gators.
- And would Georgia Tech, the top seed in the ACC’s weaker division, whoop up on Missouri, the top contender from the SEC East? To be speculate: it’s unlikely. If there’s one thing we know about Missouri after the past six games, it’s that the Tigers don’t make stupid mistakes—you know, they type Georgia made time and time again against the Yellow Jackets. Mizzou needed to go 6-0 in conference play to close out the season, and they did just that. There was no margin for error and they made no errors.
So congratulations to the ACC. You swept the weekend. Teams much higher in your hierarchy beat lowly SEC teams. You win.
That’s all I got/
Evil Richt To Nebraska?
Don’t count on it. Mark Richt is listed as one of the favorites for the Nebraska job according to Vegas, but Richt was asked in his weekly press conference about it and he demolished all doubts about his future at UGA. For those wanting Richt gone, looks like you will have to hope he retires soon because he is not going anywhere anytime soon. Here are the full odds for the Nebraska head coaching position.
Preseason Poll Spot On
After all the criticism of the preseason polls (mainly by me), it looks as if I will have to eat my words. It seems as if the “experts” have almost got it spot on from the first preseason, to week 15. The most laughable part of the preseason is Auburn and Oklahoma. Just wait till you see how high they had these two teams before the season, you will be rolling with laughter. Here is the comparison.
Freeze Not Going Anywhere
You can take Hugh Freeze off the list of possible head coaches for the Florida vacancy, because Ole Miss has just offered him a nice extension. I personally thought that Freeze would be a disaster hire for the Gators, so I am a little disappointed they did not try to counter offer Ole Miss. This off season will be very interesting with how the new coaching vacancies will be filled. Here are the details of the new Hugh Freeze contract.
One of the recurring themes on comments I’ve seen (on my article from yesterday as well as Chad’s article from yesterday) is the notion that “anyone with this much talent should be winning a National Championship.”
I’m not sure where that notion comes from.
Obviously, the measure of talent is somewhat arbitrary. I don’t pretend to believe that recruiting services are fool-proof, but I do think it’s safe to say that recruiting analysts are better at measuring and ranking talent than the average fan. After all, they’re making a living off predicting how well a high school player will perform at the collegiate level. So unless someone sees something consistently in the form of an “eye test” that indicates Georgia has more talent than every other school in the country, using recruiting class rankings and player ratings is about as good of a measure as any.
Through that framework, Georgia isn’t the most talented team in the country. In fact, I can make a case—based on talent—that Georgia should not be winning a national championship, because four teams in the Bulldogs’ own conference boast more theoretical talent. Not surprisingly, those four teams also happen to be the only four teams who have won an SEC Championship more recently than Georgia.
Using data from the 247Sports Composite (which reconciles multiple recruiting services) I found that Georgia’s average recruiting class ranking over the past five years (2010-2014) is a respectable 9.0. That would be great, except:
- Alabama: 1.8
- Florida: 5.8
- LSU: 7.6
- Auburn 8.2
Want to talk elite top-end talent? Georgia has signed ten 5-star players over this time period. Alabama as signed 19.
Georgia’s reeled in fifty 4-star athletes. Every school in this sample pulled in at least 10% more than Georgia.
- Auburn: 55
- Florida: 62
- LSU: 67
- Alabama: 73
In total, Georgia has signed 106 players with a 3+ star rating over the course of this five year period. Again, that figure is strong. It’s just not better than:
- Florida: 121
- LSU: 123
- Auburn: 124
- Alabama: 128
There’s no basis, as far as recruiting is concerned, for making the argument that Georgia has “too much talent not to win a national championship,” because Georgia doesn’t even hold a decisive recruiting edge within its own division, let alone the conference.
“But,” I can already hear you saying. “What about all those big, bad Bulldogs in the NFL.”
What about them?
Georgia has 48 players on NFL rosters according to this database. That’s fantastic. LSU has 56 and Alabama has 54. Florida is right behind with 47. Where’s the edge?
If we want to look at a more finite and recent term, Alabama has had 37 players drafted over the past five years. LSU has had 35 drafted over the same time frame. Georgia has had 28 players selected during that epoch.
If Georgia doesn’t have a talent advantage as measured by incoming talent (recruiting rankings) or out going talent (the NFL Draft), why the hell would we assume that Georgia has a talent advantage during players’ collegiate years? That seems ludicrous to me.
That’s all I got/