Category Archives: Big 12
So, Georgia is heinously underranked at #11 in the initial College Football Playoff rankings.
How does Georgia sneak into the top 4, based on teams ahead of them losing? (Again, we’re going to assume that Georgia wins out, including wins against Auburn and an SEC West team currently ranked ahead of them:
SEC West (4)
1. Mississippi State
4. Ole Miss
Based on Ole Miss’ ranking of 4, it’s clear the committee is taking a ‘who have you beaten?’ approach. MSU still has Ole Miss and Bama, Auburn still has Ole Miss (on Saturday), Georgia, and Alabama, Ole Miss still has Auburn and MSU (and is in good shape with both at home), and Alabama still has MSU and Auburn (also both at home).
Georgia gets two wins against those four (projecting Auburn and then Alabama in Atlanta), and make no mistake: the Dawgs are in.
2. Florida State
7. Michigan State
10. Notre Dame
Florida State and Notre Dame both have Louisville on their schedule, and we’re all big Bobby Petrino fans.
Oregon’s still-suspect O-line and D leave them vulnerable to another L. They’ve gotten through the meat of their schedule, but host nemesis Stanford this week. They also have a Pac-12 championship game against someone with a good offense from the South (Arizona/Arizona State/UCLA?)
Michigan State is in if they beat Ohio State on Nov. 8. I’m conceding a spot there.
Notre Dame? Just ugh. Georgia, based on strength of schedule, would jump them with two top-5 wins.
The XII? (2)
9. Kansas State
Notably, they still have to play each other, so that’s good. TCU visits West Virginia this week as well, but closes with Kansas, Texas, and Iowa State. K-State has a much tougher road, visiting TCU, WVU and Baylor between November 8-29. This will sort itself out if TCU loses in the next two weeks.
… And if Georgia Loses?
I honestly expected Georgia to come in at 7 behind the big four from the West, Michigan State, and Notre Dame. Georgia’s best chance with a loss (let’s assume to Auburn) is a big win in the SEC Championship game coupled with multiple losses for the rest of the West.
Nobody’s leaving the SEC Champ out, and two-loss carnage will provide that for a two-loss Georgia team.
For that to play out, one quick way of it happening:
MSU: losses at Bama and Mississippi.
Auburn: (assuming they beat Georgia) loss to Georgia in SECCG, wins otherwise.
Alabama: loss to Auburn (still has a tricky game at LSU too.)
Ole Miss: loss to Auburn this week. Perhaps at Arkansas?
Basically Georgia would need to be the top two-loss team in the SEC with another loss.
Hustling through this because its currently 11:15 and this is supposed to go live in 20 minutes… shoddy scheduling on my part this week.
And by ‘thrillers’, I mean in the Halloween way, not the games themselves:
Seriously though, that’s amazing. Only Georgia Tech among these seven has played more than three conference games, and the transitive property has eaten the whole division. GET YOUR FLORIDA STATE vs. <insert 7-5 team here> TICKETS NOW!
2) Connecticut at #18 ECU, 7, ESPNU: ECU in the AAC feels like they’re swimming way out of their depth based on opponent cache alone, but they’re really, REALLY fun to watch and could be a (whatever they call the BCS 6 now) bowl buster.
1) #6 Oregon at Cal, 10, FS1: The over/under on total yards for this game has to be in the 1600 range. We know what Oregon does, but what Cal does is even more impressive. They gave up 723 passing yards and WON a game this year, took UCLA to the wire, and have hung (and given up) 50 on about everyone. This is football on crack.
2) BYU at Boise (9, ESPN) and USF at Cincinnati (7, ESPN2) exist for people with no life. Of which I hope I’m not one with this oncoming cold.
NOONS OVER MY HAMMY
This is the most deplorable noon slate of the college football season, I think. A total of two ranked teams, one of whom doesn’t count because B1G.
1) Texas at #11 Kansas State (12, ESPN): Texas schadenfruede is always fun, Bill Snyder is always heartwarming, and…Texas schadenfruede is always fun.
2) Rutgers at #16 Nebraska (12, ESPN2): What’s more vomit-inducing: including this game on the viewing guide, or cheering for Rutgers to further destroy the B1G’s rep? I don’t know and I don’t want to know, but I suppose we can all laugh that the state universities of New Jersey and Nebraska are in the same athletic conference.
Beyond: Nothing really. Like at all. UNC at UVA intrigues only me, and I realize that. UAB at Arkansas is on the SECN and may draw an eyeball or two. Just stay away.
HEY TV PEOPLE, ALL OF THESE WOULD BE NOON HEADLINERS
There’s a lot of good, not great, viewing interest for the 3:30’s, but we need TV execs to balance their stuff out a little better.
1) Michigan at #8 Michigan State (3:30, ABC): For pure “what will Brady Hoke do to get himself and the AD’s asses canned this week?” purposes.
2) #1 Mississippi State at Kentucky (3:30, CBS): Just like we predicted in the preseason. I guess we cheer for MSU to eliminate the BlueCats.
3) #22 West Virginia at Oklahoma State (3:30, ESPN): My two favorite likely-to-find-meth-den Power Five cities face off in a game between teams we forget about now but will randomly be playing for the XII title in a month.
4) Georgia Tech at Pitt (3:30 ESPNU): See chart above, insert ‘watching GT lose in front of 25k fans’, and enjoy watching the world burn in the stadium where….well, that’s happened before:
5) Missouri at Vanderbilt (4, SECN): Pure, unadulterated unintentional comedy potential.
THE FREAKS COME OUT AT NIGHT
Seriously. All of the good SEC games are under the lights.
1) #3 Ole Miss at #24 LSU (7:15, ESPN): Again begs the question “How is LSU ranked?”, but that’s neither here nor there, I guess. Tuning in to continue my unhealthy man crush on Mississippi’s D.
2) #4 Alabama at Tennessee (7:30, ESPN2): Pure. Lane. Kiffin. Knoxville. Comedy. Gold.
3) #20 USC at #19 Utah (10, FS1): I’m interested in seeing if Utah is actually good or not, and bipolar USC is totally
not the opponent for me to make this determination.
4) South Cack at #5 Auburn (7:30, SECN): So…uh…do we…cheer for SC in this game? I think we do! (Vomits up blood) GO COCKS!
5) #13 Ohio State at Penn State (8, ABC): Go Pedobears, please kill this discussion of tOSU in the CFP with fire.
ENJOY THE GAMES, Y’ALL!
While I never went so far as to project a loss in either of Georgia’s two Todd Gurley-less trips to two of America’s more anonymous states, I am <insert giddy Madlib here> that the Dawgs are going into the bye and November with a stranglehold on the SEC East. Ranked #9 in both polls, Georgia finds itself in very good position to make the first College Football Playoff assuming they win out. With extremely winnable games against Florida, Kentucky, Charleston Southern, and Georgia Tech, one pins his hopes on beating Auburn and whomever emerges from the SEC West nuclear holocaust.
The Bulldogs are in better shape than you think for the playoff. According to ESPN’s Playoff Predictor Index, the Dawgs are #4 behind Auburn, Alabama, and Ole Miss with a 24% chance of being included in the final four. Even a loss to Auburn followed by a win in Atlanta puts the Dawgs in incredible shape. Let’s analyze what stands in their way.
The SEC West
Unless the SEC Champion (i.e. the team who beats Georgia) is the West’s representative, the toughest division in college football will not have more than one team in the playoff. Let’s assume one gets in. That eliminates three from the group of Mississippi State, Ole Miss, Alabama, and Auburn. This’ll be settled on the field (with current AP rankings).
1) Mississippi State: 11/15 @ Alabama, 11/29 @ Ole Miss
3) Ole Miss: 11/1 vs. Auburn, 11/29 vs. MSU (and a visit to LSU for Gameday this weekend)
4) Alabama: 11/15 vs. Mississippi State, 11/29 vs. Auburn
5) Auburn: 11/1 @ Ole Miss, 11/29 @ Alabama (and @ Georgia on 11/15)
One is inclined to think that Ole Miss and Alabama have the clearest paths to the SEC West championship. Were they both to win out, Ole Miss would go to Atlanta and (fairly or unfairly) Alabama would be a CFP lock.
I mean, after beating Notre Dame they’re essentially in. They’ve played the three toughest games on their schedule, although an October 30 trip to Louisville looms as a trickier game than pundits will allow.
A one-loss Florida State team, at this point, would be at a disadvantage against a Michigan State team whose one loss was to much better competition.
(LOL at referring to Notre Dame as a power). Georgia fans need to become fans of whoever is matched up against the Irish, Sparty, and Oregon from here on out.
Oregon: Currently sixth in the AP, the PPI has the Ducks at 23.2% to get in, ranking only behind the SEC teams, Florida State, and Ohio State? Looking at the schedule, Stanford doesn’t seem to have the firepower to win in Autzen, and a road trip to #19 Utah doesn’t quite incite fear. An injury to Marcus Mariota or a slip-up in the Pac-12 championship eliminates UO.
Michigan State: In my opinion the biggest threat as a one-loss team, because they play in the B1G. The PPI has them at 17.5% to get in, because apparently it thinks Ohio State is going to beat them in East Lansing on November 8th. Nobody else in that league stands a chance.
Notre Dame: A one-loss Notre Dame team gets in, and you know this. Arizona State/Northwestern/Louisville/USC, don’t allow this to happen.
And Finally, the XII
The Big XII champion comes into play for the Dawgs if, as I alluded to, we lose to Auburn and then win the SEC. A two-loss Georgia team likely wouldn’t get in in front of a one-loss XII champ.
Luckily for us, it’s not likely that we see a one-loss XII champ.
AP #10 TCU still travels to West Virginia in a must-see November 1st matchup, and hosts #11 Kansas State the next week. The fighting Bill Snyders have NO shot, as they travel to both TCU and WVU, as well as Baylor.
And what of Baylor, you ask? At #12 in the AP, they’re still the likely favorite in the XII. Their only road game is a trip to Oklahoma on November 8th, and that’s going to determine their viability as a playoff team.
So How Does This Play Out?
Thanks for asking. First of all, Georgia has to win the SEC. A second loss in Atlanta costs the Dawgs just based on timing and the committee’s efforts to avoid rematches (plus, Georgia’s inclusion would likely mean three SEC teams in the CFP– ain’t gonna happen).
Let’s rank and seed, as of today.
Locks (yanno, until they lose)
1-2) SEC West Champ, two if Alabama and Ole Miss win out (and division winner wins SEC).
3) Florida State
4) Oregon: win out and they’re in.
5) Georgia: win out, cheer for Auburn to beat either Ole Miss or Alabama, and they’ll jump Michigan State and Notre Dame (I think/the world hopes).
6) Notre Dame: a one loss Notre Dame team is in.
7) Michigan State: the first team that could actually lose a spot because of their schedule.
8) A one loss Big XII Champion.
Beyond that, a few teams for whom anonymity is still a factor are very much on the ‘outside and need some help’ looking in. Among them are both Arizona schools, Ohio State (ugh), Nebraska (haha), and…well, that’s pretty much it.
If Georgia takes care of business, the Dawgs should be in the first CFP. With 12 days to watch this thing continue to shake out, let’s hope our friends at the UGA Vault are ready to add a Final Four to the archives.
There was a rumor floating around in the spring that non-power 5 conferences (Or was it non-FBS? Who remembers?) were discussing moving their seasons to the spring. This rumor had me positively giddy for a few days, as we’re not even getting Tuesday/Wednesday night #MACtion yet. Imagine instead having #MarchMACtion. It would be glorious, you’d get to see potential NFL stars without them being overshadowed by the A.J. McCarrons of the world while getting beat 48-7 in a season opener, AND the product for the football we care about in the fall would be improved by more standardized competition.
Win, win, WIN!
This notion really hit home again when realizing that most teams were playing their sixth game of the season this week, meaning football is about to reach its halfway point. As a guy who only has a cursory interest in the NFL (go Ravens and my unmentionable fantasy team name), the promise of not having eight cold football-less months per year would vastly improve my life.
Thursday Night- Meh.
BYU at UCF, 7:30, ESPN: No Taysom Hill for BYU, UCF’s two losses to mediocre teams…there’s no real College Football Bowl Playoff Rotation Bowl (do they call those BCS bowls still?) interest in this game. I may actually recommend whatever NFL game hits Thursday night for once.
Friday Night- Maybe?
Washington State at #25 Stanford (9, ESPN) is a game I wouldn’t expect to take place on a Friday night (not on Stanford’s campus, anyway), but this COULD be compelling if Connor Halliday throws for another 734 yards. In case you missed it, Connor Halliday threw for 734 yards in a LOSS to California last Saturday. That ain’t right. He’s got a future dashing some poor fanbase’s hopes for a few years on the next level.
Worth a mention because they exist: San Diego State at New Mexico (9, ESPNU), and Fresno at UNLV (10, CBSSN).
Saturdays in October- Where Even Noon is a Good Time to Drink
1) #13 Georgia at #23 Missouri (CBS, noon): Wait, I didn’t realize there was a CBS doubleheader already this week? I got one shot at previewing this one in here. This should be a great game.
2) Texas vs. #11 Oklahoma (ABC, noon): Not terribly compelling, which is usually when it becomes compelling. Can Charlie Strong and his no-name bunch of misfits take down the Sooners, who are reeling from a loss at TCU last week? Nah.
3) Duke at #22 Georgia Tech (ESPN3, 12:30): This’ll be on one of the local networks here in Atlanta. The Nerds are ranked, but can eliminate Duke from the ACC Coastal race. I’m torn here.
4) Indiana at Iowa (ESPNU, noon): See the team that beat Missouri here in case it looks like we don’t. Switch to bourbon if that’s the case.
5) #1 Florida State at Syracuse (ESPN, noon): Obligatory ‘FSU-is-still-kinda-on-upset-watch’ mention, but I don’t even want them to lose to Syracuse.
A 3:30 Slate Where I’m Not Trapped in a Church for a Wedding
1) #2 Auburn at #3 Mississippi State (CBS, 3:30): I’m not sold on MSU yet, as I mentioned here. So watch them roll over Auburn.
2) #12 Oregon at #18 UCLA (FOX, 3:30): Loser fades into East Coast bias-laden obscurity, winner maintains an outside shot of getting back into the playoff picture (because they’ll probably both lose again).
3) #9 TCU at #5 Baylor (ABC, 3:30): This is sick. TCU probably shouldn’t have jumped all the way to 9, but oh well. A win and they’re the MAJOR favorites in the XII, which is nuts considering they went 4-8 last year. Baylor? Well, you know:
4) Louisville at Clemson (ESPNU, 3:30): Bobby Petrino said he expected Syracuse’s crowd in the Carrier Dome was louder than what the Cards would face in Death Valley. Hokay.
UNC at #5 Notre Dame (NBC, 3:30): I’m not doing this to myself again. F*** It. You’re Drunk Anyway.
1) Evening Doubleheader of SEC West Matchups on ESPN (6 and 9): #7 Alabama at Arkansas is moderately compelling even though Bama has won 7 straight, the last two by a combined 104-0. Following that, #3 Ole Miss travels to #14 Texas A&M in what is sure to be a
Rebel Black Bear letdown game, right?
2) LSU at Florida (SECN, 7:30): SEC DOMINATIN’ THE NIGHT GAMES, Y’ALL!
3) USC at #10 Arizona (ESPN2, 10:30): This is your solid weekly nightcapper. Calling the USC ‘upset’, because how does an unranked, hardly-voted-for team all of a sudden vault (Download the UGA Vault!) into the top 10?
Penn State at Michigan : LOLYOUFINDTHENETWORKIDONTCARE5) Not subjecting you to any of the other games on the tube. Here’s the link if you want something miserable and boring.
ENJOY THE GAMES, Y’ALL!
Alright, Alright, Alright
Mathew McConaughey spoke to the Texas football team after practice on Wednesday, and now they will go on to win every single game on their schedule. Honestly, he gave a really great speech and even brought out the Wolf of Wall Street chest thump. I wouldn’t mind him coming to Tuscaloosa and giving a similar speech, because I feel like running through a wall after watching it for the fourth time. Here is the full video.
CJ Putting Ole Miss In Their Place
CJ Mosley was the leader of the Alabama defense last year that held the Ole Miss Rebels scoreless, after Bo Wallace ran his mouth saying he was not impressed with the defense of Alabama. Mosley took it personally and lead the Tide to an impressive victory over the Rebels last season. Clearly the Rebels have not learned their lesson about running their mouths, so CJ Mosley trolled some Rebels on Instagram this week. Here is the full article, but the picture he put on Instagram can be seen below.
Mullen Back To Florida?
Florida can pay anyone to come to coach their football team once they fire Muschamp after they lose to UT this weekend. The real question is, who would they take? A lot of people believe it could be Dan Mullen or Kevin Sumlin, but I do not see either one leaving the schools they are at. Mullen has a great setup at State because he can literally win 8 games, and they are happy! Sumlin can do whatever he wants as long as they win one or two games they are not supposed to each year, so he is not going anywhere. Who do you think Florida would go after? Here is Bleacher Reports Q&A on the topic.