Author Archives: tardawg1014
Because that’s a pretty plausible scenario, too.
Yesterday, I posted three reasons why Alabama is going to roll into Athens and win. Though I picked the Tide to win on the award-winning DudeYouPodcast, it’s really a hedge…I have no idea.
So, there is some opponent-based pessimism, but there’s certainly reason to believe the Dawgs can (and should?) win.
Jake Coker is probably more error-prone than Greyson Lambert
I riffed on my trepidation about Greyson Lambert vs. better competition. Well…
Coker has been very inefficient, breaking 60% in completion percentage just once (the opener vs. Wisconsin). He threw two picks against comparable competition in Ole Miss, and hasn’t thrown for more than 5 YPA in the past two games. On passes traveling over 15 yards from the line of scrimmage, Coker is 1/15 for 42 yards.
The horizontal tendency of Lane Kiffin’s passing game plays into Georgia’s hands, where rangy linebackers (you know the names) and Dominick Sanders in a ‘robber’ role should be in the vicinity of a lot of balls. Georgia SHOULD find at least one pick during this game, and my hope is that that’s a low estimate.
There’s also Georgia’s pass rush. It is good. You know this.
This is also Coker’s first road challenge, and he stands to face 92,000 screaming fans PLUS the elements. If Lambert can avoid mistakes and play Coker to at least a draw, advantage Georgia. Make Alabama one-dimensional, advantage Georgia.
Georgia hasn’t really tried to run tempo…yet
Alabama’s D is most vulnerable to mobile QB’s. The Bulldogs’ stable is…not that, but some no-huddle could simulate that experience.
If Georgia can force Alabama into personnel disadvantages, the Dawgs could feast with their run/pass balance. Getting All-American Reggie Ragland into coverage on a TE or (prayers) a speedy slot WR could be lead to a field day between the hashes. Ragland is very Amarlo Herrera-esque: great in run-stuffing, mediocre against the pass. Bama’s back four is susceptible to the deep ball, and the thought of 1-on-1 matchups for Malcolm Mitchell have me feeling some type of way.
Finally, if the game does turn into a muddy slopfest, forcing tempo with Chubb/Michel/Marshall could wear the Bama D completely out over a four-quarter game.
Speaking of Michel, get him the ball
I’m hoping to see Chubb and Michel on the field together a lot on Saturday. Jet sweeps, fly sweeps, slants against linebackers…Michel has a chance to have a HUGE game against a defense keying on #27.
Find a way to get Sony 15 touches, and good things are going to happen.
BONUS (and I’ll regret this one): Alabama special teams woes?
God, I hate myself for typing these words. But Alabama’s specialists have been anything but special thus far.
PK Adam Griffith is 3/7 on field goals. P J.K. Scott is 92nd of 100 qualified punters in yardage per kick.
Maybe (KNOCK ON WOOD VIGOROUSLY) Georgia pounds Alabama’s third unit into submission.
The rain may render all of these points moot. This game may go crazy and be 17-17 after the first quarter.
What I’m saying is: we know nothing about what’s going to take place Between the Hedges today.
But it’s gonna be a HELLUVA lot of fun, and Georgia has a chance for a statement win at 3:30. Stay tuned.
Josh is at it again. Follow @j_thompson89 for a more Andrew-level silliness than the rest of us can provide.
Alabama’s finally back in town. It sure doesn’t feel like seven years since the Tide strolled into Athens, made quick work of the preseason #1 Bulldogs, then didn’t look back for the next several years. But here we are.
Things feel different this time around though. Alabama comes into this game already having one loss, dropping out of the top 5, whereas in 2008, they came into Athens surging up the polls after early season beatdowns of Clemson and Arkansas. While the Tide have “struggled” (this is a VERY relative term here) early in the season, the Dawgs have looked better each week.
So Georgia fans can approach this game with cautious optimism, and there’s a palpable buzz around Athens. But we’ve all seen this play out before. However optimistic they may be, fans need to prepare for the worst. And what better way to prepare than to drown your fears in a bottle of bourbon. Chad’s note: bourbon is nature’s poncho. Plus, if things turn out well, you’ve already got a head start on your postgame buzz. Below are the rules for the Georgia-Alabama drinking game. We’re gonna get a little more aggressive this week in preparation for the worst.
Alabama @ Georgia drinking rules:
- Just go ahead and finish that first drink when the inevitable highlights of that 2008 game are shown
- Drink if the announcers mention this is the first time that Alabama’s been an underdog since 2009
- Take a shot for every Alabama missed field goal.
- Take 13 drinks (one for every game in the streak) if Chubb goes over 100 yards. If nobody around you mentions him breaking Herschel’s record, drink double.
- 5 drinks if Verne Lundquist ogles over Greyson Lambert’s girlfriend at any point.
- Just keep drinking into oblivion if he starts comparing her to Katherine Webb
- Drink if any of the Lane Kiffin rumors are mentioned
- Finish that drink if there’s any mention of Joey Freshwater
- Drink when the announcers start breaking down Jeremy Pruitt’s tenure at Alabama
- Drink if there’s a questionable targeting call that gets a key player ejected. Doesn’t this just feel like a game that happens?
- If you’re near an Alabama fan, drink every time they scream for a quarterback change. This could be very dangerous.
- If Georgia falls behind 31-0 at the half again, just turn the game off and turn that bottle upside down until it’s gone.
Season-long Georgia Bulldog drinking rules:
- Finish your drink on Georgia’s first Special Teams error of the day
- Shot for each additional Special Teams mistake
- #ChugForChubb every time he gets the ball
Let’s temper those expectations a little bit, because we all know we’ve seen this movie before.
This isn’t the ‘Blackout’ game of 2008, where Georgia is 100% the favorite. This also isn’t the 2012 SEC Championship Game, where a very game group of Bulldogs came within five excruciating yards of a certain national championship. It falls somewhere in between, but all the chatter I’ve heard going into this week’s showdown with #13 Alabama is “when we win” followed by anything from the following:
- the schedule really opens up for us.
- we’re going to have a letdown against Tennessee next week.
- Alabama is out of the championship race.
Let’s tap the brakes here, folks.
This isn’t your ‘head and shoulders above everyone’ Alabama team of the past near-decade, but the squad in all white on Saturday is still the most talented team in college football. Enigmatic? Maybe. Minus-5 in turnovers and still had a shot to beat Ole Miss, in the latest iteration of “is the Alabama dynasty over”? You bet. This is a damn good football team.
Here’s why they should beat us on Saturday:
Greyson Lambert has yet to face live bullets.
33/35 over two games is damn impressive, don’t get me wrong. But #11 was basically throwing against air in those two games. Stack the box, run play action, stifle the pass rush, throw between the safeties and LB’s has been an effective combo since the Vandy game.
Here’s the thing with Alabama, though: they have the biggest, strongest, fastest front seven in the country. They can do a better job stopping the running game with less guys in the box than we’ve seen thus far. They’re going to manufacture pressure against the Georgia OL, and Lambert (hearkening back, for a second, to his Virginia days) has not historically performed well when flushed. I expect Lambert to throw at least one pick, and for the Bama front to double the number of sacks (3) he has taken this year.
Comparing Lambert & Johns vs. pressure last year… can’t blame the OL for the diff… pic.twitter.com/q1jxLC5vBe
— David Hale (@DavidHaleESPN) September 29, 2015
Yeah, we have Nick Chubb. But Bama’s run D is STOUT
Alabama’s front seven has faced historically GREAT running team Wisconsin, and damn good team Ole Miss in two of its four games this season. Even those teams (yes, a cut below Georgia’s rushing attack) are scheming away from running against Alabama, because its so damn hard to do.
In FootballStudyHall’s advanced stats, Alabama’s D ranks third in the country in success rate against the run, stopping 75.6% of runs short of a ‘successful’ (i.e., moving the chains on three downs with four-yard gains) one. Chubb is at 8.4 yards per carry himself, and Georgia’s offense ranks third itself in rushing down success rate. But something’s got to give when an unstoppable force meets an immovable object. We can’t expect the easy-button explosiveness of the Georgia running game we’ve grown accustomed to seeing.
I still have Alabama 2012 and Florida 2014 PTSD.
And you should too. Remember how Eddie Lacy took over the last 25 minutes of the SEC Championship game? Remember how Florida’s hapless offense marched on the edges in Jacksonville last year?
Lane Kiffin is a stubborn, annoying, probably unfaithful, boorish dude. But he’s not an idiot when it comes to offense.
Georgia is still young on the defensive line, has had no real tests against a physical O-line pushing it outside, and…oh. That physical O-line shields a 250-lb behemoth of a man in Derrick Henry.
(Lane Kiffin also doesn’t like to stretch the field horizontally, and is famous for forgetting he has the country’s third-best back. Pray for this.)
BONUS: S**t, is Georgia the new Clemson?
Clemson has made a lot of headlines this week about how unfair the perception that they lose big games is. They are 5-2 in their last seven tilts with top-1o opponents, so this may be a justified beef.
Taking final rankings into account, Georgia is 2-6 vs. top 10 opponents in the past three plus years. “But Alabama isn’t in the top 10,” you say. I think it’s a safe bet that they will be back by the end of the year.
Emotions are running high, and this blog post was NO fun to write as Saturday Between the Hedges approaches. But if we wake up on Sunday and Georgia is 4-1, there’ll be good reason why.
We need nothing to come of this. Please be nothing. Please continue to refrain from commenting, CMR.
A woman named Maya Labat claims Isaiah McKenzie threatened to kill her at the Chili’s on Alps on Monday night, making ‘terroristic threats’.
Also in attendance? Dominick Sanders, Terry Godwin, D’Andre Walker, and Jarvis Wilson.
My first thought? “MayaLabat” is an anagram for “Alabama” (with a y and a t, for prosterity).
Taking that context, we can hope for good things this week. Taking the quote from the article, “I am going to call some (about 92,000) friends and they were going to come out and he was going to kill you (where ‘you’ is ‘Alabama’).”
Game week. Isaiah is a little fired up.
Next week we get to make some sweeping changes, for better or for worse.
Alabama, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, the class with which Georgia handled the Devon Gales incident.
I’m buying Alabama for posterity because its Alabama game week and I don’t jinx my teams. They did what Georgia did this week– survived another lower-level easy win with no major injuries. Only Lane Kiffin rumors.
Florida, I don’t like being right in this regard, but…they’re 2-0 in the SEC with Ole Miss coming into town this Saturday night. Wins are wins, especially in the first month of a new coaching regime.
I cheered for Florida and Duke today to help my teams. September is a dark, dark time.
— Chad Floyd (@Chad_Floyd) September 26, 2015
Kentucky is more of a long-term buy, because hey. 2-1 without having played Vandy yet is the best Kentucky I’ve seen in what, 10 years?
Arkansas, Auburn, Missouri, South Carolina, Vanderbilt, Tennessee’s ability to hold a lead in the fourth quarter (again).
MAKE THEM DIG THEIR OWN GRAVES WATCH: Auburn, South Carolina, Vandy. They done. All are 0-2, all have no hope, and all is good in the world.
Amazingly, Arkansas should have easily won the game against Texas A&M on Saturday night. They dominated time of possession, made moving the ball look EXTREMELY easy in the third quarter, then…changed their gameplan. I’m not putting a second-straight second half resurgence past them, but…it’s not likely.
Mizzou, God bless. They FINALLY lost a game they deserved to lose. Good on ya, Kentucky.
Maty Mauk is freaking abysmal. #SECEastChamps
— Chad Floyd (@Chad_Floyd) September 27, 2015
LSU, Mississippi State, Ole Miss, Tennessee, Texas A&M, and…on to your hats this week.
I’m going to go ahead and throw my hat into the ring as a non-believer in LSU, and it has nothing to do, specifically, with their 34-24 win at Syracuse on Saturday. I just don’t think their defense or the “Fournette and get out of the way” offense are sustainable, long-term. 3-0 coming out of September would have looked pretty good to any objective LSU fan a month ago, though.
#CLANGA just kinda sat on Auburn for 60 minutes, and that was effective. Nothing really to write home about from that. They travel to Texas A&M, who looked dominant, then lost, then damn good again in their overtime win against Arkansas. Their win is a case study in the yards per play vs. time of possession debate (I don’t know if there is one). If there is, another win for YPP! To quote anonymous:
You down with YPP?
Yeah you know me
Ole Miss gets a hold for the week for its not-inspiring win over Vandy, who, despite all of my talk of relegating them to the Sun Belt, has acquitted itself in two SEC games in which it was outmatched on paper.
Finally, the strange case of Tennessee. I’m not selling because they WILL beat someone of note this year (hell, give Alabama their third loss). But…what happened to their passing game? They have the most talented group of receivers in the league outside of College Station, these receivers established themselves on college football fields last year…and none have over 100 receiving yards through a MONTH? It’s ridiculous, and definitely something to watch going forward. If the Passtronaut is no better at pushing the ball downfield than his predecessors, well buddy, you’ve got another 6-6 squad on your hands.
Power Ranked, Just Straight Up This Week
Based on schedule and performance to date as opposed to projecting.
- Ole Miss
- Texas A&M
- Mississippi State
- South Carolina