Author Archives: tardawg1014

I Now Believe the SEC West is Overrated- The Week 9 Power Rankings


Having grown up a fan (I don’t believe in conference solidarity) viewer of another conference, I understand the hand-wringing associated with the perceived ‘SEC media bias’ that exists to prop up the conference versus the other power-5 players. While I don’t think it’s some grand conspiracy to protect ESPN’s investment in the SEC Network, I do believe that members of the SEC tend to get the benefit of the doubt.

After beating former #8 LSU, Mississippi State vaulted (hey, that’s the name of our sponsor! click to download!) from unranked (they should’ve been ranked in the preseason anyway, but I digress) to #12. Then #3 after beating a Texas A&M team which achieved a high ranking by– you guessed it– dumping a top-10 SEC team in week 1.

On the flip side, it seemingly takes forever for the pollsters to adjust downward for SEC teams. South Carolina survived near-losses to ECU and Vanderbilt (VANDERBILT!) before dropping out of the top 25. An LSU team that needed a miracle to beat Flo-by-God-rida is inexplicably back in the top 25 (remember how they lost to Auburn?).

I have found a trend that I’m going to investigate further. SEC teams (and moreso the West) are a lot slower to drop than teams from other conferences. Michigan State dropped 8 spots after going to Eugene and leading Oregon for most of the game in week 2, yet Auburn’s de-pantsing against #CLANGA cost them four spots.

SECweek8

 

1) Ole Miss: Another week, more self-vindication for jumping on the Ole Miss bandwagon while everyone was feeling MSU. Still third in the nation in YPP on D behind Stanford and Louisville.

2) Alabama: As I said last week and this week, I tend to lean on Ole Miss and Alabama to be the tops in the SEC West because of how the schedule plays itself out. And then Alabama put the final nail in the “Texas A&M is good” coffin, and we all enjoyed having one less thing to worry about.

3) Mississippi State: The best thing the Bulldogs have going for them is my intense (yet unintentional) apparent hatred for them. I just don’t believe yet, as I’m even LESS impressed with the LSU and A&M wins than I was a week ago.

4) Georgia: Up one spot into the fray of the national top-5 teams, Georgia cruises into the bye with two solid road wins against… without… you know the deal. That’s what good teams do, and Georgia may be the most confident team in the league heading into the stretch run.

5) Auburn: Really excited to see them (hopefully) fall off the map in November. In the ‘that is kinda nuts’ category, assuming the four teams above hold serve, Auburn will play four top-10 teams for their SEC road games this year.

AND THEN THERE WAS A DRAMATIC DROP-OFF…

6) LSU: In sticking with the theme of the initial diatribe, how high would LSU jump in the polls were they to beat Ole Miss this weekend? 13?

7) Texas A&M: This says a lot about how bad the SEC East is, and nothing more…

8) Kentucky: A team that just lost 41-3 to LSU is almost in the top half of the league on the strength of having wins in the SEC and not wanting to prop up Arkansas. Go figure.

9) Arkansas: Bret Bieliema don’t need no proppin’ up. 0-4 and still a threat, and still hypothetically the second best team in the SEC Easy.

10) Missouri: Can we rehash this one more time? Mizzou won a game (by 29 points, mind you) in which they:
– totaled 119 yards of offense
– threw for 20 yards and 1.1 yards per attempt (Palmer was right, Maty Mauk is bad)
– had 8 more penalties than their opposition

That’s what happens when you return a fumble, interception, kick, and punt for a touchdown. Their three scoring ‘drives’ (one TD and two FG) totaled 63 yards in 24 plays. Lord.

ANOTHER (LESS SIGNIFICANT) DROPOFF

11) South Carolina: They’re the actual second-best team in the East, I think, but with a loss to Tennessee could easily miss a bowl. Thank God they get to play Clemson at the end of the year.

12) Tennessee: Serious question: is there an SEC win on UT’s schedule? They finish up with Bama this week, @South Cack, Kentucky, Missouri, and @Vandy (oh yeah, they get to play Vandy.) Scratch that.

13) Florida: ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

14) Vanderbilt: If ever there was justification for a collegiate relegation system…

Georgia Football: Categorizing Threats to the Dawgs’ Playoff Hopes


While I never went so far as to project a loss in either of Georgia’s two Todd Gurley-less trips to two of America’s more anonymous states, I am <insert giddy Madlib here> that the Dawgs are going into the bye and November with a stranglehold on the SEC East. Ranked #9 in both polls, Georgia finds itself in very good position to make the first College Football Playoff assuming they win out. With extremely winnable games against Florida, Kentucky, Charleston Southern, and Georgia Tech, one pins his hopes on beating Auburn and whomever emerges from the SEC West nuclear holocaust.

The Bulldogs are in better shape than you think for the playoff. According to ESPN’s Playoff Predictor Index, the Dawgs are #4 behind Auburn, Alabama, and Ole Miss with a 24% chance of being included in the final four. Even a loss to Auburn followed by a win in Atlanta puts the Dawgs in incredible shape. Let’s analyze what stands in their way.

The SEC West

Unless the SEC Champion (i.e. the team who beats Georgia) is the West’s representative, the toughest division in college football will not have more than one team in the playoff. Let’s assume one gets in. That eliminates three from the group of Mississippi State, Ole Miss, Alabama, and Auburn. This’ll be settled on the field (with current AP rankings).

1) Mississippi State: 11/15 @ Alabama, 11/29 @ Ole Miss
3) Ole Miss: 11/1 vs. Auburn, 11/29 vs. MSU (and a visit to LSU for Gameday this weekend)
4) Alabama: 11/15 vs. Mississippi State, 11/29 vs. Auburn
5) Auburn: 11/1 @ Ole Miss, 11/29 @ Alabama (and @ Georgia on 11/15)

One is inclined to think that Ole Miss and Alabama have the clearest paths to the SEC West championship. Were they both to win out, Ole Miss would go to Atlanta and (fairly or unfairly) Alabama would be a CFP lock.

Florida State

I mean, after beating Notre Dame they’re essentially in. They’ve played the three toughest games on their schedule, although an October 30 trip to Louisville looms as a trickier game than pundits will allow.

A one-loss Florida State team, at this point, would be at a disadvantage against a Michigan State team whose one loss was to much better competition.

One-Loss Powers

(LOL at referring to Notre Dame as a power). Georgia fans need to become fans of whoever is matched up against the Irish, Sparty, and Oregon from here on out.

Oregon: Currently sixth in the AP, the PPI has the Ducks at 23.2% to get in, ranking only behind the SEC teams, Florida State, and Ohio State? Looking at the schedule, Stanford doesn’t seem to have the firepower to win in Autzen, and a road trip to #19 Utah doesn’t quite incite fear. An injury to Marcus Mariota or a slip-up in the Pac-12 championship eliminates UO.

Michigan State: In my opinion the biggest threat as a one-loss team, because they play in the B1G. The PPI has them at 17.5% to get in, because apparently it thinks Ohio State is going to beat them in East Lansing on November 8th. Nobody else in that league stands a chance.

Notre Dame: A one-loss Notre Dame team gets in, and you know this. Arizona State/Northwestern/Louisville/USC, don’t allow this to happen.

And Finally, the XII

The Big XII champion comes into play for the Dawgs if, as I alluded to, we lose to Auburn and then win the SEC. A two-loss Georgia team likely wouldn’t get in in front of a one-loss XII champ.

Luckily for us, it’s not likely that we see a one-loss XII champ.

AP #10 TCU still travels to West Virginia in a must-see November 1st matchup, and hosts #11 Kansas State the next week. The fighting Bill Snyders have NO shot, as they travel to both TCU and WVU, as well as Baylor.

And what of Baylor, you ask? At #12 in the AP, they’re still the likely favorite in the XII. Their only road game is a trip to Oklahoma on November 8th, and that’s going to determine their viability as a playoff team.

So How Does This Play Out? 

Thanks for asking. First of all, Georgia has to win the SEC. A second loss in Atlanta costs the Dawgs just based on timing and the committee’s efforts to avoid rematches (plus, Georgia’s inclusion would likely mean three SEC teams in the CFP– ain’t gonna happen).

Let’s rank and seed, as of today.

Locks (yanno, until they lose)

1-2) SEC West Champ, two if Alabama and Ole Miss win out (and division winner wins SEC).
3) Florida State

Contenders

4) Oregon: win out and they’re in.
5) Georgia: win out, cheer for Auburn to beat either Ole Miss or Alabama, and they’ll jump Michigan State and Notre Dame (I think/the world hopes).
6) Notre Dame: a one loss Notre Dame team is in.
7) Michigan State: the first team that could actually lose a spot because of their schedule.
8) A one loss Big XII Champion.

Beyond that, a few teams for whom anonymity is still a factor are very much on the ‘outside and need some help’ looking in. Among them are both Arizona schools, Ohio State (ugh), Nebraska (haha), and…well, that’s pretty much it.

If Georgia takes care of business, the Dawgs should be in the first CFP. With 12 days to watch this thing continue to shake out, let’s hope our friends at the UGA Vault are ready to add a Final Four to the archives.

Georgia Football: Todd Gurley Speaks Out, In Song


For a college sports blog, DudeYouCrazy.net is extremely low in #SOURCES who provide inside information on the primary subject of our website.

Last night, that changed in a BIG way.

This should come as no surprise, but as a child of the 1990’s, Todd Gurley is a big fan of the music of his childhood. Our source caught Gurley on his scooter in Athens today listening to Britney Spears on XM station 90’s on 9. The audio was a little rough, but its evident that Todd is less than pleased with the NCAA’s lack of a ruling.

Oh Marky Marky,
How was I supposed to know?
That signing wasn’t right, yeah?
Oh Marky Marky,
You’re slower than Al Groh
In reaching a de-cis-ion
Show me
How Jameis can be
Playing this week
While I’m on the sidelines?
Cause I know

Your boorishness is killing me
Though I must confess, I still believe
(Still believe)
That Chubb and J.J. can do the job
Give me a siiiiiiiiign
Sit me Marky one more time!

Oh Marky Marky,
The reason I’m poor is you
Just give us a damn stipend!
Oh Marky Marky,
There’s nothing I wouldn’t do
To murk the Hogs this weekend
Show me
How Jameis can be
Playing this week
While I’m on the sidelines?

Your boorishness is killing me
Though I must confess, I still believe
(Still believe)
That Chubb and J.J. can do the job
Give me a siiiiiiiiign
Sit me Marky one more time!

Oh Marky Marky
Oh Marky Marky
How long can you be paid to blow?
Oh Marky Marky
Your sponsors want me cleared to go

I must confess
This NCAA mess
Is killing me now
Don’t you know that I still believe?
That our fans will cheer
When lawsuits jam it up your reeeeeeaaaaar
Sit me Marky one more time!

Todd Gurley. All-American running back. Victim of a system that penalizes the wrong people. And a helluva lyricist.

 

 

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Something Something College Football, Vegas, and Five Picks for Week 8


You’re not here to read my excuses as to why I have failed to post picks columns the past two weeks, but let’s just say fall weddings and NCAA rulings unfortunately came calling. It didn’t stop me from getting into a little action, as I don’t bet my own money until October (a rule that has saved me a TON of money, as evidenced by my 11-11 showing through September).

I’m feeling more confident in myself (even though I’m making more money on O/U’s) and let’s get y’all back in the swing of things:

1) Baylor (-8) vs. West Virginia: If this were a night game, yeah I could see the werewolves of West Virginia coming out and causing problems for Baylor. But this is a Baylor team averaging 71.5 points per game against WVU the past two years, and the nation’s third-best defense in yards per play.

BAYLOR = GIF

Stylin’ on suckas

2) Georgia Tech (-1) vs. North Carolina: I never bet on my teams, but Jesus could I make some money betting against UNC. They’re 3-8 against the spread under Larry Fedora, 1-10 straight up, and the Heels defense couldn’t shut out a team of eleven current-day Joan Rivers. I’ll be there for my stone cold LOCK OF THE YEAR.

3) Notre Dame (+11.5) vs. Florida State: I replaced Cincinnati (-13.5) over SMU with this game after seeing how bad Cincinnati is. I think Florida State wins this game because they are superior, but man…they’re making it look tough this year. God wants to torture us all and keep Notre Dame in the playoff picture despite a loss.

4) Kentucky (+10) vs. LSU: It’s an LSU game, and, last I checked, Les Miles is still the coach there. This will be a close game with some sort of hilarity to end the game. I think LSU will win, but based on the previous statement, it can’t possibly be by more than a score.

This is what I think of when I think of Kentucky/LSU. Please watch, there’s so much going on: both teams ranked, Nick Saban in purple, JARED LORENZEN!!!

5) Indiana (+15.5) vs. Michigan State: Well, Michigan State has been plodding somewhat bored-ly through the B1G schedule, and can you really blame them? Indiana still leads the SEC East in the loss column. So there’s that.

LAST WEEK: 3-2 SEASON: 11-11

Big XII Shakedown Week! An SEC Breather! GTH, Notre Dame! The Week 8 Viewing Guide


Is there anything more demoralizing than a Tuesday? After the two most hectic workdays of the week, you come home, open a beer, and are conditioned from the previous five days to have football as the primary activity, or at least backdrop, to whatever it is you’re doing with your night. Tuesday is a different animal because there is no football on TV. (People with significant others, is this when you cede the TV to her and allow Real Housewives and that crap to come through your speakers?)

All that changed this week. I watched a depressing amount of UL-Lafayette/Texas State the other night, and man. Just because its the Sun Belt doesn’t mean it can’t entertain. Lafayette quarterback Terrance Broadway was a joy to watch, and apparently they’re the favorites in the conference. We have solid #MACtion coming at us almost every Tuesday for the duration of the season.

One question I had the other night that I haven’t received confirmation on quite yet: does a Tuesday game count as the week before or the week after? Are Lafayette and Texas State suiting up again on Saturday? Turns out, at least in the case of these two, that neither adjacent Saturday is a game day. Both have last and next Saturday off, as TSU plays again on the 25th and you get another chance to see Lafayette against Arkansas State NEXT Tuesday.

FOOTBALL SIX DAYS A WEEK! REJOICE!

Thursday: I’d Rather Have Sun Belt Games.

1) The only game any normal people in our region are going to get pits Virginia Tech at Pittsburgh (7:30, ESPN). While I won’t call myself an ACC fan, I possess a vested interest in the Coastal Division race, and not even I can pretend to give a modicum of a care in the world for this game. Ugh.

If you do have Pac-12 Network, #20 Utah visits Oregon State at 10.

Friday: #HOTTAKE TO FOLLOW

Despite my sentiments above regarding Tuesday night football, I am still so anti-Friday night college football. It feels like such an AAC/Mountain West thing to do, but the Pac-12 and ACC have dabbled this year as well. Friday nights in America should still be reserved for the high school game, and that is the most soapboxy, dogmatic take that I can’t really back up on this website.

Fresno and Boise play at 8 on ESPN (actually a solid matchup), Temple at Houston (Houston is really bad y’all) at 9 on the U. Yaaaaaaaaayyyyyy.

Boomer Nooner, Or Get Your Big XII Fix Early

Depending on where your sensibilities lie, the Big XII is football on iceskates or football on cocaine. Noon provides a double shot espresso or drug of your choice of high-flying, no defense football through your TV screens.

1) #14 Kansas State at #11 Oklahoma: The bloom is off the OU rose bigtime following a loss to TCU and a near-loss to Texas, and you have to love K-State getting the “lost close to an SEC team” boost.

2) #4 Baylor at West Virginia: Last time these two played in Morgantown, the final score was 70-63. Geno Smith was a competent QB at the college level at that point, and was considered a lock for the Heisman after that performance. I still think he could be a good NFL QB if he got out of the dumpster fire that is an offense controlled by someone controlled by Rex Ryan.

Obligatory Baylor gif again? OBLIGATORY BAYLOR GIF AGAIN!

The rest of the noon slate is downright depressing, as if the TV powers-that-be are making us do our homework by watching the XII. The only SEC team in action is South Carolina, who hosts Furman in South Carolina’s least-exciting in-state rivalry. The B1G, as always, has a couple of bumfights. Virginia at Duke in the ACC is probably the third-best choice for the time slot, as we cheer for the ACC Coastal 4-4pocalypse.

The Mid-Afternoon: I Have Nothing Clever

The 3:30 slate is nothing to write home about after the past two weeks. I mean, good lord, even my 6th-best game (UNC at Notre Dame) for the slot last week was insanely entertaining. Having said that, this blows away anything I’ve previously commented upon thus far today…

1) #15 Oklahoma State at #12 TCU (4, FS1): (Please don’t write me hate mail, I’m only here to expand your horizons). Today is to the XII what the past two weeks were to the SEC. Shakedown Saturday. I love the fact that they play a full-conference round robin, and have often fantasized about the SEC doing the same.

2) #10 Georgia at Arkansas (4, SECN): More compelling than the SEC on CBS game this week in my opinion. God, Allah, spaghetti monster in the sky (CC: Daniel Palmer), whoever: please let Todd Gurley play in this game. With these two rushing attacks, the game could be over before any of the 3:30’s.

3) #21 Texas A&M at #7 Alabama (3:30, CBS): Ugh, I think Uncle Verne’s worst obsession the past three years has been the ogling of Texas A&M. Speaking of whom, can we determine that they’re good for one dazzling performance (South Carolina? Alabama 2012?) each year and are set to be a mediocre team in the league beyond that?

Beyond those three, I don’t know where to guide you. Masochists will chose the B1G route (#8 MIchigan State at Indiana and Rutgers at #13 Ohio State on the ESPN family of networks), DeShaun Watson-less #24 Clemson visits BC on the U… I don’t know. Try to set the rotation to three.

HIDE YO KIDS, HIDE YO WIFE, HIDE YO HOT TAKES, JAMEIS IS COMING TO YOUR TV

1) #5 Notre Dame at #2 Florida State (8, ABC): Repeat after me. “Notre Dame losing is always a good thing, unless it ruins a potential matchup with Georgia for the national championship.” Go Noles. Also, while this was kinda funny when Notre Dame was relevant and their rivalry with Miami was insane, now we just have pure, unadulterated Notre Dame arrogance.

Go to hell, Notre Dame.

Go to hell, Notre Dame.

2) A couple of palatable SEC matchups: Tennessee at #3 Ole Miss (7, ESPN) is the classic trap game (maybe?) for Colonel Reb. Mizzou/Florida (ESPN2) and Kentucky/LSU (SECN) are both relevant to Georgia’s SEC East chances (as seen here).

3) You actually have a solid Pac-12 doubleheader starting at 8 as well. Washington at #9 Oregon (8, FS1) is always interesting, at least in theory, and #23 Stanford at #17 Arizona State (10:30, ESPN) is as good as it gets for a nightcap.

Enjoy the games, y’all!

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