Author Archives: tardawg1014

Weekly Viewing Guide: Who’s Rooting for Petrino?


When I was watching the College Football Playoff reveal show on Tuesday night, the commentators highlighted the fact that UCLA was ranked #22. They felt it important to note that Michigan State was in the same spot in last year’s first BCS rankings. Apparently, by some magic, 22 is a spot in which you’re guaranteed to rise. Michigan State 2013 played defense and UCLA 2014 does not, however, and they failed to mention that the first BCS rankings came out after week 8 whereas these are a week later. IMPORTANT DISTINCTIONS!

Taking the cynicism out, the point being made was that anyone currently ranked has, at worst, an outside shot of making the final four (even Duke!)

Thursday Thriller

1) #2 Florida State at #25 Louisville (7:30, ESPN): I’m legitimately excited for this one. Apparently Louisville students petitioned to get better third down music, and will be mixing “Never Scared” by Bonecrusher and “Ruff Ryders Anthem” by DMX into their rotation.

Also, on the most recent DudeYouPodcast, I put the Noles on upset alert. Like, they’re long overdue for a loss, right? 1-6 against the spread this year, have played pitifully on the road (they gave up 41 to an N.C. State team who has a longer ACC losing streak than Arkansas’ SEC streak…yeesh), and their D has taken a significant step backwards since losing Jeremy Pruitt. And their new uniforms are hideous.

/hears motorcycle rev
//BY GOD, THAT’S BOBBY PETRINO’S MUSIC
///chaos

Friday

Nope. Do so at your own risk.

Another Week, More Atrocious Noon Football

My advice: find a ranked team you are interested in and learn about them. That…doesn’t really help this weekend.

1a) #24 Duke at Pitt (ESPNU): Pitt is fascinatingly bipolar and Duke should be favored in every game it plays until the ACC Championship.
1b) #18 Oklahoma at Iowa State (FS1): Boomer Sooner could jump back into the title hunt with some help from Baylor, or they could implode. Angry SoonerNation is the best SoonerNation.
1c) The only other ranked team is recently-underperforming #23 ECU at Temple, and there are your regular B1G snoozers (Wisconsin at Rutgers, Maryland at Penn State) as well as a game between ACC Coastal contenders who may not even make bowl games with UNC at Miami.

3:30 Not Much Signal Interference, Enjoy the Sweet Sounds of Uncle Verne

1) #11 Georgia vs. Florida (CBS): Fun things to watch this week include Florida’s offense and someone tracking Jeremy Foley’s every move postgame.
2) #7 TCU at #20 West Virginia (ABC/ESPN2): S’go ‘Neers, and we in Georgia will provide some couches for you to burn. Your definite “previous channel easy flip” pick of the week.
3) Purdue at #15 Nebraska (ABC/ESPN2): Someone beat these corn-growing fools.
4) Kansas at #13 Baylor (FS1): As former Kansas coach Charlie Weis may say: Baylor has a decided schematic advantage. And talent advantage. And home field advantage.

I’ll Just Say It: We’ll All Be Drunk for the Night Games

In the words of Mallory Archer: “That’s what happens when you drink all day and skip lunch!” It’s Cocktail Party week, folks.

1) #3 Auburn at #4 Ole Miss (7, ESPN): Ummmmm, yes please. The first of a great many shakedown games in the SEC West.
2) Stanford at #5 Oregon (7:30, FOX): Stanford’s ploddingness (it’s now a word) has been the Duck-killer the past two years. Three, and the nation’s (I guess) second-best conference is out of the title hunt.
3) Arkansas at #1 Mississippi State (7:15, ESPN2): Is it just me, or does Mississippi State play exclusively at home this year? #CLANGACLANGACLANGA.
4) Oklahoma State at #9 Kansas State (8, ABC): Wait, you mean to tell me the ABC game isn’t some piddlysquat B1G game? SPEAK WITH YOUR REMOTES, PEOPLE!
5) #10 Notre Dame at Navy (8, CBS), Illinois at #16 Ohio State (8, ABC/ESPN3): Dear God, the piddlysquat B1G may still come to your boxes via ABC. Run.

Late Night 

1) #12 Arizona at #22 UCLA, #17 Utah at #14 Arizona State (10:30, ESPN; 11, FS1; respectively): Television programmers now have the goal of putting football on from noon until 4am, and this week, they have succeeded.

Enjoy the games, folks!

Burn It Down, Arkansas, Clustering the Bottomfeeders, and Complaining About CFP Rankings: The Half-Hearted Week 10 SEC Power Rankings


Oh boy.

On this very column last week, I declared myself ‘self-vindicated’ for jumping on the Ole Miss bandwagon instead of the Mississippi State bandwagon.

Two things:
1) I don’t know if self-vindication is a real thing.
2) If self-vindication is a real thing, it’s the most self-indulgent thing of which I’ve ever heard.

We’ll go with a self deprecation theme this week.

SECweek9

 

1) Alabama: I really enjoyed the four-week respite from Alabama on top of these rankings, but they’re the annoying inevitability that just won’t go away. Death, taxes, and Alabama.

<insert Lane Kiffin gunshot gif here>

2) Mississippi State: I was interested to see how they would perform on the road for the first time in, like, six weeks…and unfortunately (although good for Georgia’s SEC East chances) they held off Kentucky. They really are the most balanced team in the SEC, but I’m still seeing losses ahead for them.

3) Georgia: Too high? Jinx? Well, turnovers in college football are somewhat random and the Dawgs lead the nation in TO margin. I refuse to acknowledge that I say anything incorrect about Georgia in this column.

RETURN OF THE MACK COUNTDOWN: two games (or 16 days, 23 hours, and 53 minutes from the moment this posts).

4) Auburn:I realize Georgia lost to South Carolina, but I was appalled at how good Auburn’s defense made Dylan Thompson look on Saturday night. As long as Nick Marshall, the stout O-line, and Duke Williams are doing their thing, it may not matter.

5) Mississippi: Huge loss to LSU was mitigated by their #4 ranking in the first CFP polls. The loss of defensive anchor Denzel Nkemdiche may hurt worse.

Also, okay, I’m going to go on a tangent here. How in the happy hell is Ole Miss ranked ahead of Oregon in the CFP poll? Clearly, there was a heavy head-to-head component, but Oregon lost to the #16 team, a one-loss Arizona squad. Mississippi lost to a largely inept LSU squad ranked #24. Their best wins are a wash (if you can remove conference blinders): home against Michigan State and home against Alabama.

Rant over.

6) LSU: Yeah, I just got done calling them ‘largely inept’, but this LSU team is coming around as I predicted in August.

I think this young team manages to go 10-3 and set up another run of national championship-caliber teams in 2015-16.

7) Random thoughts on the next four teams: 

A&M is going to reach bowl eligibility with a win over UL Monroe this week. Their other wins? South Carolina, Arkansas, and three directional Texas schools (seriously, where is Lamar?) What a resume.

Kentucky visits Missouri in an SEC East elimination game. It’s in Georgia’s best interests to go ahead and get Mizzou its second league loss (though it seems impossible they don’t have that yet).

BONUS FUN MIZZOU STAT: Maty Mauk is 38/96 for 390 yards, 2 TD’s and 5 picks in his last four games (Vandy and SC’s D’s were included). An average adjusted QBR of 28.7. Amazingly, that’d only be 7th-worst in the country if expanded over the whole season.

Arkansas. I got nothing. Win an SEC game and upset the balance in the West. Like, yo. Please lean heavily on one of those Mississippi teams.

11) Random thoughts on the last four teams: 

South Carolina. Florida. Tennessee. Vanderbilt. In that order.

All of these teams can suck it.

Especially Florida.

Georgia Football: UPDATED THREAT WATCH


So, Georgia is heinously underranked at #11 in the initial College Football Playoff rankings.

How does Georgia sneak into the top 4, based on teams ahead of them losing? (Again, we’re going to assume that Georgia wins out, including wins against Auburn and an SEC West team currently ranked ahead of them:

SEC West (4)

1. Mississippi State
3. Auburn
4. Ole Miss
6. Alabama

Based on Ole Miss’ ranking of 4, it’s clear the committee is taking a ‘who have you beaten?’ approach. MSU still has Ole Miss and Bama, Auburn still has Ole Miss (on Saturday), Georgia, and Alabama, Ole Miss still has Auburn and MSU (and is in good shape with both at home), and Alabama still has MSU and Auburn (also both at home).

Georgia gets two wins against those four (projecting Auburn and then Alabama in Atlanta), and make no mistake: the Dawgs are in.

One-Team-Carrying-Other-Conference (4)

2. Florida State
5. Oregon
7. Michigan State
10. Notre Dame

Florida State and Notre Dame both have Louisville on their schedule, and we’re all big Bobby Petrino fans.

Oregon’s still-suspect O-line and D leave them vulnerable to another L. They’ve gotten through the meat of their schedule, but host nemesis Stanford this week. They also have a Pac-12 championship game against someone with a good offense from the South (Arizona/Arizona State/UCLA?)

Michigan State is in if they beat Ohio State on Nov. 8. I’m conceding a spot there.

Notre Dame? Just ugh. Georgia, based on strength of schedule, would jump them with two top-5 wins.

The XII? (2)

7. TCU
9. Kansas State

Notably, they still have to play each other, so that’s good. TCU visits West Virginia this week as well, but closes with Kansas, Texas, and Iowa State. K-State has a much tougher road, visiting TCU, WVU and Baylor between November 8-29. This will sort itself out if TCU loses in the next two weeks.

… And if Georgia Loses? 

I honestly expected Georgia to come in at 7 behind the big four from the West, Michigan State, and Notre Dame. Georgia’s best chance with a loss (let’s assume to Auburn) is a big win in the SEC Championship game coupled with multiple losses for the rest of the West.

Nobody’s leaving the SEC Champ out, and two-loss carnage will provide that for a two-loss Georgia team.

For that to play out, one quick way of it happening:

MSU: losses at Bama and Mississippi.
Auburn: (assuming they beat Georgia) loss to Georgia in SECCG, wins otherwise.
Alabama: loss to Auburn (still has a tricky game at LSU too.)
Ole Miss: loss to Auburn this week. Perhaps at Arkansas?

Basically Georgia would need to be the top two-loss team in the SEC with another loss.

Go Dawgs.

DudeYouGamblin’, Week 9: Home ‘Dogs Cover Supreme


In light of their controversial win over Notre Dame last week, as well as the weirdness that is Jimbo Fisher and Jameis Winston’s relationship, I thought I would bring to light this little tidbit: Florida State is 1-6 ATS this year.

If, knowing what we know about the top 10’s performance this year, we cleared their records and re-ranked them, where would the ‘Noles land? I would have to think their underwhelming performance and weak SOS would have them OUT of the playoff.

The reason I bring this up is this: DudeYouGamblin’ posts hit the site on Fridays. Florida State travels to Louisville next Thursday.

Louisville is going to knock off Florida State.

1) Cal (+17.5) vs. Oregon: Old school football fans, avert your eyes. Can we coin the term “30 yards and a cloud of vapor”? We’re doing it. The Bears’ conspicuous 41-7 loss at Washington two weeks ago gives me pause, but they’ve exceeded 45 points in 4 of their other 6 games and should be able to turn a home game with the Ducks into a shootout.

2) Kentucky (+15) vs. Mississippi State: The Bulldogs haven’t been on the road since the LSU win that started this crazy vault to the top of the polls. As I write this, I realize I’m putting a lot of blind faith in weird things to happen in Lexington. I like my chances.

3) Arkansas (-24.5) vs. UAB: You don’t think the Hogs are ready to take out some aggression on cats? Line has jumped from -21 with the quickness.

4) Georgia Southern (-17) vs. Georgia State: I know too many people from Southern, and they have talked me into this line. To be fair, Southern has more FBS wins than State since State’s football program started…which means absolutely nothing. Whatever.

5) Washington (+3.5) vs. Arizona State: The ole ‘when you have two quarterbacks, you have none’ applies here. Although the backup has performed well, Todd Graham says old starter Taylor Kelly will go in Seattle if he’s 100%. Washington has had a season just weird enough for one to logically assume they’re due for a minor upset.

LAST WEEK: 2-3 SEASON: 13-14. The reverse jinx worked for my Heels against Tech, but that was a loss on the gamblin’ board. Kentucky and Baylor, you let me down. And Notre Dame didn’t. Ugh.

Schadenfruede Alerts All Over the Country: Your Week 9 Viewing Guide


Hustling through this because its currently 11:15 and this is supposed to go live in 20 minutes… shoddy scheduling on my part this week.

Thursday Thrillers

And by ‘thrillers’, I mean in the Halloween way, not the games themselves:

1) Miami at Virginia Tech, 8, ESPN: Oh, the ACC Coastal. Coastal

Seriously though, that’s amazing. Only Georgia Tech among these seven has played more than three conference games, and the transitive property has eaten the whole division. GET YOUR FLORIDA STATE vs. <insert 7-5 team here> TICKETS NOW!

2) Connecticut at #18 ECU, 7, ESPNU: ECU in the AAC feels like they’re swimming way out of their depth based on opponent cache alone, but they’re really, REALLY fun to watch and could be a (whatever they call the BCS 6 now) bowl buster.

FRIDAY FREAKISHNESS

1) #6 Oregon at Cal, 10, FS1: The over/under on total yards for this game has to be in the 1600 range. We know what Oregon does, but what Cal does is even more impressive. They gave up 723 passing yards and WON a game this year, took UCLA to the wire, and have hung (and given up) 50 on about everyone. This is football on crack.

2) BYU at Boise (9, ESPN) and USF at Cincinnati (7, ESPN2) exist for people with no life. Of which I hope I’m not one with this oncoming cold.

NOONS OVER MY HAMMY

This is the most deplorable noon slate of the college football season, I think. A total of two ranked teams, one of whom doesn’t count because B1G.

1) Texas at #11 Kansas State (12, ESPN): Texas schadenfruede is always fun, Bill Snyder is always heartwarming, and…Texas schadenfruede is always fun.

2) Rutgers at #16 Nebraska (12, ESPN2): What’s more vomit-inducing: including this game on the viewing guide, or cheering for Rutgers to further destroy the B1G’s rep? I don’t know and I don’t want to know, but I suppose we can all laugh that the state universities of New Jersey and Nebraska are in the same athletic conference.

Beyond: Nothing really. Like at all. UNC at UVA intrigues only me, and I realize that. UAB at Arkansas is on the SECN and may draw an eyeball or two. Just stay away.

HEY TV PEOPLE, ALL OF THESE WOULD BE NOON HEADLINERS

There’s a lot of good, not great, viewing interest for the 3:30’s, but we need TV execs to balance their stuff out a little better.

1) Michigan at #8 Michigan State (3:30, ABC): For pure “what will Brady Hoke do to get himself and the AD’s asses canned this week?” purposes.

2) #1 Mississippi State at Kentucky (3:30, CBS): Just like we predicted in the preseason. I guess we cheer for MSU to eliminate the BlueCats.

3) #22 West Virginia at Oklahoma State (3:30, ESPN): My two favorite likely-to-find-meth-den Power Five cities face off in a game between teams we forget about now but will randomly be playing for the XII title in a month.

4) Georgia Tech at Pitt (3:30 ESPNU): See chart above, insert ‘watching GT lose in front of 25k fans’, and enjoy watching the world burn in the stadium where….well, that’s happened before:

5) Missouri at Vanderbilt (4, SECN): Pure, unadulterated unintentional comedy potential.

THE FREAKS COME OUT AT NIGHT

Seriously. All of the good SEC games are under the lights.

1) #3 Ole Miss at #24 LSU (7:15, ESPN): Again begs the question “How is LSU ranked?”, but that’s neither here nor there, I guess. Tuning in to continue my unhealthy man crush on Mississippi’s D.

2) #4 Alabama at Tennessee (7:30, ESPN2): Pure. Lane. Kiffin. Knoxville. Comedy. Gold.

3) #20 USC at #19 Utah (10, FS1): I’m interested in seeing if Utah is actually good or not, and bipolar USC is totally not the opponent for me to make this determination.

4) South Cack at #5 Auburn (7:30, SECN): So…uh…do we…cheer for SC in this game? I think we do! (Vomits up blood) GO COCKS!

5) #13 Ohio State at Penn State (8, ABC): Go Pedobears, please kill this discussion of tOSU in the CFP with fire.

 

ENJOY THE GAMES, Y’ALL!

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