Monthly Archives: April 2013
- Jarvis Jones, OLB – 17th overall Draft Pick to the Pittsburgh Steelers
- Alec Ogletree, ILB – 30th overall Draft Pick to the St. Louis Rams
- John Jenkins, NT – 82nd overall Draft Pick to the New Orleans Saints
- Shawn Williams, S – 84th overall Draft Pick to the Cincinnati Bengals
- Sanders Commings, CB – 134th overall Draft Pick to the Kansas City Chiefs
- Cornelius Washington, OLB – 188th overall Draft Pick to the Chicago Bears
- Bacarri Rambo, S – 191st overall Draft Pick to the Washington Redskins
- Abry Jones, DT – Signed with Jacksonville Jaguars
- Kwame Geathers, DT – Signed with San Diego Chargers
- Michael GIlliard, MLB – Signed with St. Louis Rams
- Christian Robinson, MLB – Signed with St. Louis Rams
- Branden Smith, CB – Tampa Bay Buccaneers
That’s only 12 players. The Bulldogs are fine. They didn’t lose that much.
That’s all I got/
Last week I told you about the founding of Clemson University. Today I’m going to tell you about something much more recent.
Last night former Clemson wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins was drafted 27th overall by the Houston Texans (read all about it on my once-live blog). What’s so bad about that? Nothing considering just a few weeks ago he was allegedly pooping all over an Indianapolis hotel room.
Hopkins and his roommate for the NFL Combine, Rutgers receiver Mark Harrison, were said to have left the room in a state of disarray. National Football Scouting president Jeff Foster, the dude in charge of the NFL Combine (sweet gig), offered the following description:
I can confirm that a room was left in an inappropriate condition and we’re disappointed by both players who occupied the room. here was no material damage to the room; otherwise we would be pursuing further action and really be trying to get to the bottom of the situation. It’s just very disappointing, and the people we feel the worst for are the people at the Crowne Plaza who had to clean it up.
Sounds almost laughable, right? Well it’s all fun and games until some one pees and poops all over the place and covers a mirror in toothpaste. Dan Pompei of The National Football Post weighed in:
NFL teams still were trying to find out about an incident in which a hotel room at the combine was trashed, apparently by two players who were staying there. One of the players is a potential first round draft pick, and the incident could affect both players’ stock. Front office men hoped to speak with one of the players about it at his pro day, but the player curiously made himself unavailable to talk.
You stay classy, PeeAndre Hopkins.
That’s all I got/
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Last Two Picks: 31 – Not Manti Te’o. 32 – Not Manti Te’o. Great success!
Pick 29: Vikings, please draft Te’o so that Ogletree can be the next Ray Lewis in Baltimore. They take Corduroy Patterson.
Pick 28: Bathroom
Pick 27: Feeling really bad about Alec Ogletree. There are way too many “should have been drafted” guys still on the board. Geno Smith has to go. Te’o might need to go. Matt Elam is still around. Eddie Lacy is lingering. As is Corduroy Patterson. The Texans select Deandre Hopkins – a player who literally pooped in a hotel room.
Pick 26: Datone Jones goes. Can we pronounce that “Dat One”.
Pick 25: Why go Te’o when you can draft a football player? Xavier Rhodes could barely get out of his chair. That’s not a combine test, but maybe it should be.
Pick 24: Bjoern Werner. High effort guy with a good motor. Gruden compares him to Jarvis Jones.
Pick 23: Gruden must be the Honey Badgers agent. he is selling him harrrrrd. Meanwhile Minnesota is drafting. “I shot the” Sharrif Floyd finally gets drafted. He should have been picked ahead of Richardson.
Pick 22: Falcons move up. If they take Te’o I’m leaving the state. Whew. Des Trufant is the move. Not too shabby there for the falcers.
Pick 21: The Bengals get Tyler Eifert. This has to be bad news for former Georgia Bulldog Orson Charles.
Pick 20: Kyle Long, Howie’s other 315 pound son gets drafted. “Whoa! 315 is really big, right?” – WifeYouCrazy
Pick 19: Nap
Pick 18: LSU’s Eric Reid goes to the Niners. Interesting. Not bad. Interesting.
Pick 17: The Steelers get Jarvis Jones. This is perfect, except for the fact that I hate the Steelers. But that’s a good fit. Really happy for a damn good dawg.
Pick 16: Gruden tells Bills to take a QB in the first and in the third round. I think they could get Nassib in the 7th round. Not really. But sort of. They wisely take EJ Manuel.
Pick 15: The Saints take Kenny Vaccaro. I like him and not just because he ha a cool haircut and “blessed” tattooed on one of his forearms.
Pick 14: Carolina Panthers take Star Tlalasjlkdftouuutooaaa. I won’t learn his name until he learns mine. Star looks like he belongs in a rapper’s entourage. And I mean that in the best possible way. Seriously.
Pick 13: Sheldon Richardson – Mr. Old Man Football himself – just got drafted. Bust. Guaranteed.
Pick 12: Selfishly, I think I would look super awesome rocking a black and silver Jarvis Jones jersey. Can you make that happen Raiders? No. But against all odds the Raiders still botched it. D.J. Hayden is a risk. Injury issues, limited experience against elite WRs. he has great ball skills (hahahaha), but will struggle in run support. Why not take a DT here?
Pick 11: The Chargers pick up the third consecutive Alabama Crimson Tider, D.J. Fluker. How long until their backups get drafted?
Pick 10: The Tennessee Titans take Chance Warmack as Community Chest Warmack was not avaialable. In all seriousness, he’s a great player. He’ll be in the Pro Bowl within three years and will be a mainstay of that roster.
Pick 9: Hey Jets fans, what’s your favorite DC? See Dee Milliner.
Pick 8: The Bills wisely trade back so that they can draft a mediocre to awful college QB a little later. Rams expected to take Tavon Austin. Conspiracy time: Tavon Austin is at least 6 inches shorter than his mother. Where did he get his diminutive stature? Where did he get his athleticism? Have we seen any other tiny athletic guy at the NFL Draft? Was he hanging around for a phony reason? Yes. Barry Sanders is Tavon’s father.
Pick 7: The Cardinals snatch up Jonathan “Hangin With Mr.” Cooper out of UNC. Offensive Linemen are popular.
Pick 6: The Browns grab Barkevious Mingo. He will either be awesome or terrible. I don’t see much middle ground for him. Was that generic enough for you?
Pick 5: I’m hoping the Lions take either Marlon Brown or Tavarres King out of Georgia. Stafford deserves it. Oh snap, Barry Sanders came out to announce the Lions’ pick. That’s cool, but also super useless. how is the Madden curse going to affect him now? Oh there it is…Esekiel Ansah, a DE from BYU.
Pick 4: The Eagles just selected Lane Johnson – an offensive tackle who looks like a farmer. I like OT’s in the farmer mold. There’s a proven track record of success there.
Pick 3: The Raiders just drafted Usain Bolt!!!! Juuuust kidding. They made a trade. I’m for it. Mad props Raiders. Dolphins meanwhile screw it up trading up to get Dion Jordan. Hmmmmm. Gruden seems to think he could be the NFL’s most terrifying special teamer. Not what you want in your third pick. Jordan says he didn’t expect the trade because this is “his first time.” So he has not already been drafted??? Raiders get Miami’s 12th pick and 42nd (in second round) for that Dion Jordan move.
Pick 2: The Jacksonville Jaguars select Luke Joeckel from Texas A&M. You know what they say…He’s a Joeckel, he’s a smoeckel, he’s a midnight toeckel, blockin for Jaguars when they run. This was the right pick. I think. If the Raiders will just go ahead and draft Tavon Austin next all will be right in the world.
Pick 1: The Kansas City Chiefs just drafted
former NBA Star Derek Fisher. The First NBA Champion to be drafted first overall in the NFL Draft. Correction: ERIC Fisher. Add “Central Michigan Product Saves Kansas City Chiefs Football” to list of headlines you’ll never read. Just ridiculous. Calling it. If you “can’t even process what’s going on right now” (his words) while being interviewed by Suzy Kolber then you’re probably not quite ready to block NFL Defensive Ends.
8:08 PM: I just want to go on record with my readers (what’s up ma and pa) by saying that I have a KILLER pun ready for when Luke Joeckel gets drafted. Whenever that is.
8:05 PM: If you don’t think Roger Goodell is good at his job you’re nuts. He just turned boo-birds into chants of “USA! USA”.
8:04 PM: Things I’m already tired of:
- Jon Gruden’s Butt-Cut Hair
- Me not being Mel Kiper Jr.
- People pretending to not love Chris Berman
8:00 PM: Annnnnnd we’re live. Let me lead by saying that I had no idea the guy who sings the catchy “How You Like Me Now?” song that’s in all the commercials is black. Thanks ESPN and NFL for putting him in the intro. And for what it’s worth, I like him just as much now as before.
I admittedly didn’t know much about Ryan Nassib a few weeks ago. I knew he played at Syracuse. I knew the ‘Cuse had a good year in 2012. I knew they upset West Virginia in their snowy bowl game. That’s about it. I was stunned when I started seeing him on first-round Draft boards. Flabbergasted.
Todd McShay first started throwing his name around as a first round pick on March 28th – less than a month ago. I’m typically skeptical of “late blooming” prospects especially ones that are drafted in the first round, so I was a bit weary. To be fair: McShay didn’t actually say he’d get drafted in the first round in that mock (dated March 28th) but he offered the following as a justification for the Buffalo Bills’ selection of offensive guard Chance Warmack out of Alabama:
Whether Buffalo brings in a veteran or drafts a second-tier prospect like Syracuse QB Ryan Nassin – who played for new Bills head coach Doug Marone in college – that player will need all the help he can get. Warmack is one of the most complete guards I’ve ever evaluated.
So, just a few short weeks ago, Nassib was just a prospect – and a “second tier” one at that. His lone connection to the whole scenario was that his college coach was now coaching the Bills.
On April 10, McShay said he expected the Bills to take one of three types of players: a protector (in this scenario, Chance Warmack), a pass rusher (Barkevious Mingo) or a QB (Nassib). McShay added:
Syracuse QB Ryan Nassib seems like a natural fit in Buffalo, with his former college coach Doug Marrone taking the reins for the Bills.
Spolier alert: “Natural fit in Buffalo” does not in any way, shape or form imply “good football player.” The Bills haven’t won their division since 1995.
On April 21st McShay tabbed Nassib as the 8th overall pick, going of course, to the Buffalo Bills. His final Mock (put out today, 4/25) re-affirms that pick.
This certainly doesn’t mean that Ryan Nassib will be the 8th pick, but it certainly implies that serious consideration in the first round will come his way. Isn’t he awfully…mediocre…to be a first round draft pick? I looked into it.
Counting Nassib and fellow projected first rounder Geno Smith, there will be a total of 15 QBs drafted in the first round from 2009-2013 (a five Draft window):
- Geno Smith
- Ryan Nassib
- Andrew Luck
- RG III
- Ryan Tannehill
- Brandon Weeden
- Cam Newton
- Jake Locker
- Blaine Gabber
- Christian Ponder
- Sam Bradford
- Tim Tebow
- Matthew Stafford
- Mark Sanchez
- Josh Freeman
On a raw sense, passer rating gives a good look at how a player performed in college, so I looked at these fifteen players’ last collegiate seasons. Nassib’s passer rating ranks 10th among the group. He edges one respectable QB (Josh Freeman) and Christian Ponder, Ryan Tannehill, Blaine Gabbert and Jake Locker.
He ranks 10th in completion percentage – edging out Freeman and Matthew Stafford (legitimate NFL QBs) and Ponder, Tannehill and Locker.
He ranks 10th in yards per completion edging out Freeman, Tannehill, Locker, Ponder and Gabbert.
He’s not that good. He’s a first round QB of the Locker/Ponder variety.
But, it’s hard to say too much about a player’s collegiate statistics relative to NFL performance. That being said, I’m going to go out on a limb to say that he will not be a serviceable starter at the NFL level for the following reasons: he was not prominent at the collegiate level and he has no rare physical skill set. Hear me out:
To measure prominence I made up a completely random formula that deals with players’ national rankings (because rankings demonstrate prominence better than raw stats) in the following categories:
- Passer Rating
- Completion Percentage
- Passing Yards
- Yards Per Attempt
I found an average national ranking for those four categories and I subtracted it from 120 (a rough estimate for the number of teams in FBS football). I then added TDs thrown and subtracted INTs and sacks. The end result is a very arbitrary “prominence” score. In theory a player who ranked first in all categories while throwing 50 TDs and not being picked off or sacked would have a score of 169. Here’s how those 15 players held up:
- Sam Bradford: 147.25
- Geno Smith: 129.25
- Andrew Luck: 127
- Brandon Weeden: 124
- RG III: 120.75
- Mark Sanchez: 114.75
- Cam Newton: 106.25
- Matthew Stafford: 99
- Tim Tebow: 96.75
- Ryan Nassib: 88.5
- Josh Freeman: 79.25
- Ryan Tannehill: 78
- Blaine Gabbert: 51.5
- Christian Ponder: 48
- Jake Locker: 28
Obviously, this data does not “predict” success. Sanchez and Stafford were drafted in the same class and Stafford has obviously outperformed despite having a lower “prominence score.” The same can be said of RGIII relative to Brandon Weeden. But, Sanchez had a solid final year at USC and was certainly prominent. Weeden threw the ball a ton at Oklahoma State, and these ranking reflect that.
There are also certain common sense points that can be added:
- Locker was drafted for his previous performance, not for that of his final year at Washington.
- Newton and Tebow (and to some extent RG III) were also prominent runners, this is not reflected.
- Bradford’s data all reflect his sophomore season, he was hurt his junior year. Teams drafted on the assumption that he’d be back to form.
Josh Freeman is a unique specimen at 6-foot-6. The other guys below Nassib are not.
Nassib fits right in with the likes of Gabbert, Ponder and Locker. And that’s not a good thing.
DON’T DRAFT HIM IN THE FIRST ROUND!!!
That’s all I got/
This week Colin Cowherd presented an interesting theory regarding drafting NFL QBs. (Editor’s note: I’m trying to track down the video. If I can find it I’ll post it.) He asserted that rather than drafting the big-name player from the big-name school, real franchise QBs should be found from lesser schools. He hypothesized that five-star high school talents go to elite universities with other five-star talents (very true) and in doing so those passers surround themselves with the best athletes at the collegiate level. Players at lesser-known schools, however, must learn to make the most of what they have and in doing so they are forced to improve.
I’ll agree to disagree with what Colin presented (at least in a 120 second SportsCenter clip) as a blanket statement.
Big Schools Produce NFL Starters
First and foremost, Colin seemed to over-sell the notion that small-school QBs are uniformly better fits in the National Football League. That’s just not the case, at least not according to the numbers. Of the 32 starting QBs last year (note: if a team started more than 1 QB I used only the starter with the most passing yards) only three came from non-FBS schools: Tony Romo (Eastern Illinois), Joe Flacco (Delaware), Ryan Fitzpatrick (Harvard). Flacco won a Super Bowl and Tony Romo is talked about more often in America than household budgets, but those three QBs combined to go 24-24 in the 2012 regular season. In 2011, those three went 26-22. In 2010 they went 22-26. Those three QBs combine to win half of their games. Flacco is certainly above average (in winning), Romo is right on par with the league’s average and Fitzpatrick lags. They are hardly dominant enough to render themselves the standard for the league.
You can add just two more names – Ben Roethlisberger and Colin Kaepernick – to reach the total number of starting QBs in the NFL who did not play for a BCS Conference(ACC, SEC, Big East, Big 12, Big 10, Pac 12) school. Roethlisberger’s Steelers are perennial powers, but Kaepernick has only started 10 career NFL games. The two combined to go 14-9 as starters in 2012. Again, these two have certainly had their moments, but it’s a bit premature to put to much weight on Kaepernick’s young shoulders and Roethlisberger while great is hardly the norm for smaller school passers.
The other 27 starters in the League played for BCS Conference teams.
Good Schools Produce Starting NFL QBs
You can narrow that field of 27 further by looking at historic “powerhouse” programs. The following QBs played collegiately for programs that rank in the nation’s top-25 in winning percentage over the past 25 years:
- Christian Ponder – Florida State – 2nd Highest Winning Percentage
- Tom Brady – Michigan – 7th Highest Winning Percentage
- Chad Henne – Michigan – 7th Highest Winning Percentage
- Sam Bradford – Oklahoma – 8th Highest Winning Percentage
- Peyton Manning – Tennessee – 10th Highest Winning Percentage
- Michael Vick – Virginia Tech – 11th Highest Winning Percentage
- Matthew Stafford – Georgia – 12th Highest Winning Percentage
- Carson Palmer – USC – 13th Highest Winning Percentage
- Mark Sanchez – USC – 13th Highest Winning Percentage
- Matt Cassel – USC – 13th Highest Winning Percentage
- Cam Newton – Auburn – 14th Highest Winning Percentage
- Ryan Tannehill – Texas A&M – 21st Highest Winning Percentage
- Andy Dalton – TCU – 24th Highest Winning Percentage
Are those the 13 best signal-callers in the NFL? Certainly not. But, if you’re looking for an NFL starter at the QB position, last year’s group of starters indicate that there’s a 40.625% chance you’re going to find him at a college football juggernaut. The odds of you finding a starter at a school outside of BCS Conferences? 15.625%.
Surrounding Talent vs. Competition
Cowherd made the assertion that developing despite poor talent showed true promise and cited players like Drew Brees (Purdue) as examples. But, which has a bigger impact on a player’s development: the skill set of those who are on his team, or the skil lset of the opposing defenses he faces? Couldn’t I argue that Brees, Jay Cutler (Vanderbilt) and Eli Manning (Ole Miss) became NFL-ready by taking on great defenses?
Matthew Stafford is still young (turned 25 after the 2012 season ended), but he amassed 10,005 passing yards and 61 TD passes over the past two years – the first fully-healthy years of his four-year career. He played at Georgia with countless NFL talent (D.J. Ware, Kregg Lumpkin, Clint Boling, Orson Charles, A.J. Green, Mohamed Massaquoi, Knowshon Moreno, Bruce Figgins, Shaun Chapas, Kris Durham, Ben Jones, Justin Anderson, Fernando Velasco, etc.), so I’m not sure I can attribute much of his success to Cowherd’s “less surrounding talent” theory. But, I’m comfortable saying that playing in a pro-style offense against elite collegiate defenses helped him develop.
Who else has a theory?
That’s all I got/